International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

[tetrasect]

That you know of. They aren't exactly releasing those stats

On May 16th there were 432 murders this year compared to 1500 last year.

 

[nivek]

On May 16th there were 432 murders this year compared to 1500 last year.

cool, so lets stay in lockdown in perpetuity

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Brazil takes down COVID-19 data, hiding soaring death toll
Brazil removed from public view months of data on its Covid-19 epidemic on Saturday, as President Jair Bolsonaro defended delays and changes to official record-keeping of the world's second-largest coronavirus outbreak.

Brazil's Health Ministry removed the data from a website that had documented the epidemic over time and by state and municipality. The ministry also stopped giving a total count of confirmed cases, which have shot past 672,000 – more than anywhere outside the United States – or a total death toll, which passed Italy this week, nearing 36,000 by Saturday.

 

[sand_man]

I really just shared it because to lose 56 people in one day just after we moved to a more relaxed phase - is terrifying.

Would it shock you if I told you, in SA over 190 people a day died of HIV related illness in 2018? Brazil loses more in a day than SA has in 3 months...

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Would it shock you if I told you, in SA over 190 people a day died of HIV related illness in 2018? Brazil loses more in a day than SA has in 3 months...

Not surprising when the President doesn't actually believe in it, has fired two Health ministers and there is great inequality like in SA. The whole Brazil experience has been diabolical and now none of the statistics coming out of there can be trusted.

 

[Verde]

Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19

The influential professor's statistical observations could radically change how we lift lockdown

unherd.com

How does Prof Karl Friston explain the below if only 20% of the population is susceptible.

Infection rates derived from the 12% estimate for Paris in the below paper applied to the other regions based on excess deaths and adjusted for demographics.

https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02548181/document

 

[Polymathic]

It's looking like Chernobyl 2.0 in Mother Russia

 

[Paulsie]

Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19

The influential professor's statistical observations could radically change how we lift lockdown

unherd.com

View attachment 855041
How does Prof Karl Friston explain the below if only 20% of the population is susceptible.
View attachment 855049
Infection rates derived from the 12% estimate for Paris in the below paper applied to the other French regions based on excess deaths and adjusted for demographics.

https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02548181/document

Can you provide a link to the graph and numbers applied for other regions?

From what I can see the above is using the highest infection rate of 12% for Paris, when other regions are as low as 1.4% (all these numbers still fall withing the 20% as per prof. Friston.

Also what's suspicious is that the listed and applied estimated infection rate is highest in regions with lowest population density. Ie Paris with population density of 20000 per sq/km has applied infection rate of 12%,yet Bergamo with density of 400 has applied infection rate of 62%.

Is that even possible?

 

[Geoff.D]

Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19

The influential professor's statistical observations could radically change how we lift lockdown

unherd.com

View attachment 855041
How does Prof Karl Friston explain the below if only 20% of the population is susceptible.
View attachment 855049
Infection rates derived from the 12% estimate for Paris in the below paper applied to the other regions based on excess deaths and adjusted for demographics.

https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02548181/document

explain what?

 

[TribbleZA]

Is he allowed to go to school or the shops with you?

The school has opened for Matrics - but it is still optional. We cannot afford his dad to be sick as our business is 24/7, 365. He has not left the house once in the entire lockdown. He is not keen on going shopping, even though it is allowed. He does want to go and chill with his buds though - and I get that. Will consider letting him go to classes this week if he wants to - though they have the class online anyway. I am leaving the choice up to him. He is working really well from home and bonus is we get to spend some time together.

 

[TribbleZA]

56 are murdered every day in South Africa.

As neither is related - they do not compare. Both deaths are tragic and unnecessary though. The one doesn't negate the other. Both should be prevented.

 

[ponder]

Also what's suspicious is that the listed and applied estimated infection rate is highest in regions with lowest population density. Ie Paris with population density of 20000 per sq/km has applied infection rate of 12%,yet Bergamo with density of 400 has applied infection rate of 62%.

Is that even possible?

 

[Geoff.D]

Can you provide a link to the graph and numbers applied for other regions?

From what I can see the above is using the highest infection rate of 12% for Paris, when other regions are as low as 1.4% (all these numbers still fall withing the 20% as per prof. Friston.

Also what's suspicious is that the listed and applied estimated infection rate is highest in regions with lowest population density. Ie Paris with population density of 20000 per sq/km has applied infection rate of 12%,yet Bergamo with density of 400 has applied infection rate of 62%.

Is that even possible?

Watch out for getting confused about what he is doing and what he thinks the Prof has said about his alternative model. Hence why I simply asked him to clarify what he wants explaining.
There is a better source of what the Prof is talking about, as well as a link to a paper written about the model the prof uses (DCM).

Here is the link to the original interview with a The Guardian and the link to the paper detailing the DCM model.

And an extract out of the Guardian interview to whet your appetite, or as a minimum to get the number crunchers to blow a fuse.

Covid-19 expert Karl Friston: 'Germany may have more immunological “dark matter”'

The neuroscientist who advises Independent Sage on Covid-19 discusses the predictive power of his mathematical modelling

www.theguardian.com

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2004/2004.04463.pdf

How well have your predictions been borne out in this first wave of infections?
For London, we predicted that hospital admissions would peak on 5 April, deaths would peak five days later, and critical care unit occupancy would not exceed capacity – meaning the Nightingale hospitals would not be required. We also predicted that improvements would be seen in the capital by 8 May that might allow social distancing measures to be relaxed – which they were in the prime minister’s announcement on 10 May. To date our predictions have been accurate to within a day or two, so there is a predictive validity to our models that the conventional ones lack.

 

[Lupus]

As neither is related - they do not compare. Both deaths are tragic and unnecessary though. The one doesn't negate the other. Both should be prevented.

You can't prevent a virus, murder yeah but a virus not really. Especially one that is a coronavirus, also 80% of the people that die are apparently basically dying already.

 

[Verde]

Can you provide a link to the graph and numbers applied for other regions?

From what I can see the above is using the highest infection rate of 12% for Paris, when other regions are as low as 1.4% (all these numbers still fall withing the 20% as per prof. Friston.

Also what's suspicious is that the listed and applied estimated infection rate is highest in regions with lowest population density. Ie Paris with population density of 20000 per sq/km has applied infection rate of 12%,yet Bergamo with density of 400 has applied infection rate of 62%.

Is that even possible?

I added the sources to my more detailed post in the Hype thread.

Is Covid-19 just a hype?

The rate was decreasing exponentially since day one. The virus fits the Gomperz function. I think that some people here owe me an apology? Off topic, apologies. I have been using the Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality for many years to approximate mortality in pension models.

mybroadband.co.za

 

[Verde]

explain what?

See my post in the Hype thread.

Is Covid-19 just a hype?

The rate was decreasing exponentially since day one. The virus fits the Gomperz function. I think that some people here owe me an apology? Off topic, apologies. I have been using the Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality for many years to approximate mortality in pension models.

mybroadband.co.za

 

[Geoff.D]

And the predictions made by the Prof using their DCM model:

“Based on current data, reports of new cases in London are expected to peak on April 5, followed by a peak in death rates around April 10 (Good Friday). At this time, critical care unit occupancy should peak, approaching—but not exceeding—capacity, based on current predictions and resource availability. At the peak of death rates, the proportion of people infected (in London) is expected to be about 32%, which should then be surpassed by the proportion of people who are immune at this time. Improvements should be seen by May 8, shortly after the May bank holiday, when social distancing will be relaxed. At this time herd immunity should have risen to about 80%, about 12% of London's population will have been tested. Just under half of those tested will be positive. By June 12, death rates should have fallen to low levels with over 90% of people being immune and social distancing will no longer be a feature of daily life.”

 

[tetrasect]

Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19

The influential professor's statistical observations could radically change how we lift lockdown

unherd.com

View attachment 855041

Also, what kind of a scientist goes to the papers with their suspicions instead of the results of their study? This is very troubling behavior...

 

[Geoff.D]

Also, what kind of a scientist goes to the papers with their suspicions instead of the results of their study? This is very troubling behavior...

Have you even bothered to read the articles and the paper?

 

[Verde]

And the predictions made by the Prof using their DCM model:

I am very keen to see how that model fared in Bergamo.

I find it a bit strange that Karl Friston and Michael Levitt are focusing on large countries where the virus spread is uneven, rather than the more granular regional data.