International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

[Geoff.D]

This guy really let rip.

Jeremy Harris: Please Just Stop - Hector Drummond

This is an article by Jeremy Harris. Jeremy is a businessman and investor in New Zealand, one of the few […]

hectordrummond.com

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An article that really gets to the nitty-gritty! Very good find. Of course, we now wait for the onslaught about another non-epiwhatsisname to criticise and state that he should stay in his corner.

 

[FNfal]

The virus has gone away in NZ and they can carry on like normal without social distancing. It's not their fault the rest of the world hasn't been able to crack it. If they had followed NZ's example everyone would be able to open their borders now and this pandemic would be over.

And the rest of the world doesn't have immunity either BTW.
NZ have shown that we can extinguish the virus and save lives without exposing everyone to the virus to build up some kind of immunity which we don't even know exists.

That time is long gone for most of the world to get rid of the virus . and NZ were lucky , them being an island has a lot to do with it .
One question do you like stating the obvious , like the rest of the world does not have immunity and the virus has gone away in NZ ( that remains to be seen)

 

[Geoff.D]

No, it has not gone away in NZ, it is still there but suppressed and they are going to have to work hard to keep it suppressed while they wait for a vaccine.

NZ may be a long way from any natural immunity build up in the population, so one small slip and it could start all over again for them.

Us on the other hand, are riding a wave, hoping like hell that we build up sufficient "herd immunity" to keep it under control until a vaccine arrives.

 

[tetrasect]

That time is long gone for most of the world to get rid of the virus . and NZ were lucky , them being an island has a lot to do with it .
One question do you like stating the obvious , like the rest of the world does not have immunity and the virus has gone away in NZ ( that remains to be seen)

You implied that them having 0 cases is not a good thing because they don't have immunity. I stated the obvious cause it seemed like you missed the obvious.

No, it has not gone away in NZ, it is still there but suppressed and they are going to have to work hard to keep it suppressed while they wait for a vaccine.

NZ may be a long way from any natural immunity build up in the population, so one small slip and it could start all over again for them.

Us on the other hand, are riding a wave, hoping like hell that we build up sufficient "herd immunity" to keep it under control until a vaccine arrives.

They don't have to keep it suppressed, they have to prevent it from re-entering the country from Australia.

Nobody in SA has claimed we are trying to build herd immunity. We've been trying to do the same as NZ but failing.

 

[Gordon_R]

Imagine having a certifiably crazy head of state during the epidemic:

Coronavirus: John Magufuli declares Tanzania free of Covid-19

President John Magufuli says prayers have helped eliminate the deadly virus from the country.

www.bbc.com

Last month, Tanzania's government dismissed a US embassy warning that hospitals in Dar es Salaam were "overwhelmed" and that the chances of contracting the virus was "extremely high".

Mr Magufuli has repeatedly said the health crisis has been exaggerated and urged people to attend services in churches and mosques, saying that prayers "can vanquish" the virus.

 

[tetrasect]

Imagine having a certifiably crazy head of state during the epidemic:

Coronavirus: John Magufuli declares Tanzania free of Covid-19

President John Magufuli says prayers have helped eliminate the deadly virus from the country.

www.bbc.com

I think we can fairly say that this is the only country in the world going for herd immunity...

 

[MiW]

Spain’s macro study shows just 5.2% of population has contracted the coronavirus

The results of the second round of testing suggest the deescalation of confinement measures has not so far caused a significant resurgence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus

english.elpais.com

This is bad news. After a month of testing for antibodies involving more than 130000 people, the results still point to an overall IFR of more than 1% in Spain. (About 5/10000 for under 65's and 5/100 for over 65's)

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It's actually great, maravilloso. Between Spain and EU , it looks more and more that huge proportion of the population have some type of immunity.

 

[RedViking]

Fergus Walsh: Was coronavirus here earlier than we thought?

Could Covid-19 have been here earlier than we thought? The BBC’s medical correspondent investigates.

www.bbc.co.uk

I was talking to my wife about this before seeing the article.

In December I had all the symptoms over Christmas, the loss of taste is an extremely vivid memory because I've never had anything like it before and I couldn't taste Christmas lunch.

Wife's cooking that bad he?

 

[Verde]

Nobody in SA has claimed we are trying to build herd immunity. We've been trying to do the same as NZ but failing.

Speeches

www.dirco.gov.za

"We have known all along that the lockdown would only delay the spread of the virus, but that it would not be able to stop it" Cyril Ramaphosa 24 May 2020

 

[Paulsie]

They are quoting Health Senator Dilek Kalayci. Berlin has a "traffic light system" that turns red when the R0 is above 1.2.

Obviously this isn't the first or last time the R0 will go up. They have it set up so that if the R0 drops they lift restrictions, if it goes up they tighten restrictions.

With few active cases a rise in R0 will not make much of a difference. With cases in the 20's the R0 can rise quite high without casing a massive increase in cases, that's why they just monitor the situation for a while before making any decisions.

The same happened last month when restrictions were lifted. The R0 rose to 1.37 then went back to below 1 over the next week or two.

Another traffic light reflects new cases per 100k population. The trigger over there is 30/100,000.

 

[Verde]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1270019034113859584

 

[tetrasect]

Speeches

www.dirco.gov.za

"We have known all along that the lockdown would only delay the spread of the virus, but that it would not be able to stop it" Cyril Ramaphosa 24 May 2020

First of all that's not the same as herd immunity at all.

And of course he would say that but that doesn't mean that they did not try their best to stop the spread or that it wasn't their goal. He's just admitting that he knew early on that the chance of a lockdown working in SA as well is it would in other countries is not very high.

 

[tetrasect]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1270019034113859584

They only test people who come in to get tested (suspected of being infected) so that argument doesn't make sense. It would only make sense if they were testing at random.

 

[Geoff.D]

You either keep the virus completely out, or suppress and control initial infections until you suppress it below the level that it can spread ( with 100% effective LD), or, you "flatten the curve" delay the spread and thus delay the progress towards herd immunity, or, you throw the doors open and "welcome Coronavirus, spread as fast as you can please" to hell with the consequences.
So where is SA?
We tried and succeeded in getting rid of imported cases with travel restrictions and quarantine. Then the virus got out and we claim we succeeded somewhat in flattering the curve. But like it or not, it is "out there" and it WILL spread unabated until we get to herd immunity, or a vaccine shows up to help us get there.
So, no, The govt might have tried to convince the population that the LD will stop the virus in its tracks but anyone with two brain cells could quickly see that what would happen is a slower, hopefully, controlled move towards herd immunity.

 

[tetrasect]

News from the WHO

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1270039481110888449

Even if asymptomatic people don't transmit the virus as much, it was shown that symptomatic people are most contagious before they start showing symptoms.

So how are we supposed to know if someone is asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic?

And the WHO is recommending that governments only focus on people with symptoms based on this?
Pathetic, once again.

 

[Verde]

It's actually great, maravilloso. Between Spain and EU , it looks more and more that huge proportion of the population have some type of immunity.

In Spain 600/1m died, in Bergamo 5500/1m died. If the infection rate in Spain is 5.2% what does that tell you about the infection rate in Bergamo.

 

[Geoff.D]

In Spain 600/1m died, in Bergamo 5500/1m died. If the infection rate in Spain is 5.2% what does that tell you about the infection rate in Bergamo.

Nothing!
But guesswork and creative number crunching can prove anything.

 

[Gordon_R]

Sure to ruffle a few feathers, but a reminder of how infectious this virus is:

Coronavirus: Lockdowns in Europe saved millions of lives

The researchers say the death toll would have been "huge" without a lockdown.

www.bbc.com

The Imperial study assessed the impact of restrictions in 11 European countries - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK - up to the beginning of May.

By that time, around 130,000 people had died from coronavirus in those countries.

The researchers used disease modelling to predict how many deaths there would have been if lockdown had not happened.

That meant lockdown saved around 3.1 million lives, including 470,000 in the UK, 690,000 in France and 630,000 in Italy, the report in the journal Nature shows.

"Lockdown averted millions of deaths, those deaths would have been a tragedy," said Dr Seth Flaxman, from Imperial.

Their equations made several assumptions, which will affect the figures.

They assume nobody would have changed their behaviour in response to the Covid threat without a lockdown - and that hospitals would not be overwhelmed resulting in a surge in deaths, which nearly happened in some countries.

The study also does not take into account the health consequences of lockdowns that may take years to fully uncover.

"Claims this is all over can be firmly rejected. We are only at the beginning of this pandemic," said Dr Flaxman.

And it means that as lockdowns start to lift, there is the risk the virus could start to spread again.

"There is a very real risk if mobility goes back up there could be a second wave coming reasonably soon, in the next month or two," said Dr Samir Bhatt.

Published source:

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe - Nature

Modelling based on pooled data from 11 European countries indicates that non-pharmaceutical interventions—particularly lockdowns—have had a marked effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, driving the reproduction number of the infection below 1.

www.nature.com

Meanwhile, a separate study by University of California, Berkeley, analysed the impact of lockdowns in China, South Korea, Iran, France and the US.

Their report, also in Nature, says lockdown prevented 530 million infections in those countries.

Published source:

The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic - Nature

Analyses of COVID-19 infection rates show that non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved large, beneficial and measurable health outcomes in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States; these results may inform decisions on whether or when these interventions should be...

www.nature.com

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Ah, Imperial doing some work after their credibility was shot after their initial debacle...this article sounds very self-serving.

 

[Verde]

Nothing!
But guesswork and creative number crunching can prove anything.

Much simpler than that. All you need is grade 5 maths to handle these ratios.