International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

Verde

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2006
Messages
1,488
Sure to ruffle a few feathers, but a reminder of how infectious this virus is:







Published source:


Published source:
A tad pessimistic.
 

pixel_ninja

Expert Member
Joined
May 21, 2010
Messages
1,214
And the rest of the world doesn't have immunity either BTW.
NZ have shown that we can extinguish the virus and save lives without exposing everyone to the virus to build up some kind of immunity which we don't even know exists.
I would say that this is overlooked a lot. The immunity may only be temporary, nevermind the possible scarring to your lungs, or you know - Dying?
 

MiW

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2009
Messages
1,380
Much simpler than that. All you need is grade 5 maths to handle these ratios.
Not really, you are comparing the deaths, not the cases of one region with lots of elderly people with completely overwhelmed hospitals at the time, with an entire country. Will need to pull lots of numbers from my behind to come to infection rates there.
Also it doesn't disprove some immunity (cross from other corona viruses, common cold) in larger populations , which seems to vary drastically in EU.
 

MiW

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2009
Messages
1,380
Only 290 people under age 60 with no pre existing conditions died from/with C-19 in English hospitals.

View attachment 855925
The biggest problem I have with that , is high blood pressure being pre existing condition.
Reports on the prevalence of high blood pressure in the elderly indicate that between 30 and 50 percent of persons over the age of 50 may have chronic hypertension.
Not a personal issue, I suffer from low BP, but basically half the population over 50 , can be very healthy and still fall in the category.
 

Verde

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2006
Messages
1,488
Not really, you are comparing the deaths, not the cases of one region with lots of elderly people with completely overwhelmed hospitals at the time, with an entire country. Will need to pull lots of numbers from my behind to come to infection rates there.
Also it doesn't disprove some immunity (cross from other corona viruses, common cold) in larger populations , which seems to vary drastically in EU.
I agree there may well be some cross immunity. It was unfortunately not enough to prevent the disaster in Bergamo.

The seroprevalence study in Spain supports the cross immunity hypothesis as it found much lower prevalence in children (who suffer more colds) than older people.


Health authorities in Bergamo said the results were based on a “random” sample which was “sufficiently broad” to be a reliable indicator of how many people had been infected in the province, which became the epicentre of Italy’s outbreak.

In a separate statement issued later, the Bergamo health agency said that most of those in the sample were residents of the worst-hit areas. Many had already been put under quarantine, the statement added.


Antibodies were found in just over 30% of the 10,404 health operators tested although they are generally considered more at risk than other people.

In a report released in early May, national statistics institute ISTAT said the number of deaths in Bergamo was up 568% in March compared with the 2015-2019 average, making it Italy’s worst-hit city in terms of deaths.
 

tetrasect

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2009
Messages
858
Not really, you are comparing the deaths, not the cases of one region with lots of elderly people with completely overwhelmed hospitals at the time, with an entire country. Will need to pull lots of numbers from my behind to come to infection rates there.
Also it doesn't disprove some immunity (cross from other corona viruses, common cold) in larger populations , which seems to vary drastically in EU.
What proof is there of immunity? And what makes you think that "some immunity" would even make a dent in the spread at infection rates as low as 5.2% in Spain?
 

tetrasect

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2009
Messages
858

Health authorities in Bergamo said the results were based on a “random” sample which was “sufficiently broad” to be a reliable indicator of how many people had been infected in the province, which became the epicentre of Italy’s outbreak.

In a separate statement issued later, the Bergamo health agency said that most of those in the sample were residents of the worst-hit areas. Many had already been put under quarantine, the statement added.


Antibodies were found in just over 30% of the 10,404 health operators tested although they are generally considered more at risk than other people.

In a report released in early May, national statistics institute ISTAT said the number of deaths in Bergamo was up 568% in March compared with the 2015-2019 average, making it Italy’s worst-hit city in terms of deaths.
Good to finally know, we've been waiting for those results for a while. Now we wait for them to lift all restrictions and see if that 57% will be enough to be considered herd immunity or if another 10-40% get sick...
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,308
Good to finally know, we've been waiting for those results for a while. Now we wait for them to lift all restrictions and see if that 57% will be enough to be considered herd immunity or if another 10-40% get sick...
Based on the simple formula tabled in the NZ guy's presentation, a HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) of 57% implies an initial value R0 of 2.3.

[Had I tabled that formula weeks ago, I would have been lambasted as not knowing what I am talking about because I am not an Epiwthatisname, just an engineer]

So what was the initial calculated value of the Infection Rate (R0) for Bergamo?

Note. Initial estimates of the R0 for Covid 19 varied from 3.8 - 8.9, which would mean a HIT of between 73% - 88%.
Now that more data is available, the latest estimates for R0 for Covid 19 seems to lie in the range of 1.4 - 3.9, which implies a HIT of 29% - 74%.

Note, it is not really good practice to use the Effective Infection Rate Re or Rt to do the above calculation but many do anyway. This is because very few bother to understand what R0 means.

The formula is HIT (%) = (1 - 1/R0)100
 
Last edited:

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,308
I mean, they're the same people who said it wasn't contagious. That was before it killed 400k people around the world, though. Big "oopsy"?
Don't think they steeped that low but did make out as if it was no worse than a bad flu. And to be honest, in some parts of the World it may turn out to be that when the dust settles.
 

MiW

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2009
Messages
1,380
What proof is there of immunity? And what makes you think that "some immunity" would even make a dent in the spread at infection rates as low as 5.2% in Spain?
There is a proof of cross immunity with MERS,SARS , and more difficult to study common colds types (because people in general don't test the strain of common cold coronaviruses) .

The latest strong believe in some scientists, and very logical conclusion, is that your T-cells ,which memorize pathogens they fought trough your lifetime, can instruct and mobilize your immune system very fast , if they were exposed to similar virus.

That also will make difference in the fatalities , in different countries and regions, as flu and cold , is very often localized .

By the way T-cells diminish with age
There is an increasing focus on the role of T cells during ageing because of their impact on the overall immune responses. A steady decline in the production of fresh naïve T cells, more restricted T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire and weak activation of T cells are some of the effects of ageing.
 

Alan

Honorary Master
Joined
Sep 30, 2005
Messages
62,475
Victoria Police closed a popular Mornington Peninsula pier over concerns that locals and visitors were not “observing social-distancing requirements” just two days after thousands marched through the streets of Melbourne without penalty.

People would be “moved on” if they visited Rye pier and more local attractions would be shut if social-distancing was not observed, the police later said.

The apparent double standard in policing comes as health authorities consider lifting social-distancing restrictions more quickly and pressure mounts on states that let thousands of people march in Black Lives Matter protests on Saturday.
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
16,308
There is a proof of cross-immunity with MERS, SARS, and more difficult to study common colds types (because people, in general, don't test the strain of common cold coronaviruses).

The latest strong believe in some scientists (and a very logical conclusion), is that your T-cells, which memorize pathogens they fought trough your lifetime, can instruct and mobilize your immune system very fast if they were exposed to a similar virus.

That also will make a difference in the fatalities, in different countries and regions, as flu and cold, is very often localized.

By the way, T-cells diminish with age
Again, just to be difficult, there IS quite a lot of evidence around to support the theory that there are many people out there (probably in the younger age groups) that have some sort of built-in immunity to novel viruses. (being exposed to flu and colds and other viruses, and an active immune system geared up to attack new (for them) viruses).

Which means the SEIR models would generate better predictions IF this 'natural Immunity' was taken into account somehow to reduce the total vulnerable population in their models, which would mean lower extremes etc.

[That means that other Profs' "dark matter analogy" is not all that out of line, after all, heh heh].
 

tetrasect

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2009
Messages
858
Even In A Pandemic, WHO Believes That Public Protests Are Important


As more Americans head out, 22 states are seeing jumps in new coronavirus cases
 

Verde

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2006
Messages
1,488
Top