International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

[Verde]

Sure to ruffle a few feathers, but a reminder of how infectious this virus is:

Coronavirus: Lockdowns in Europe saved millions of lives

The researchers say the death toll would have been "huge" without a lockdown.

www.bbc.com

Published source:

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe - Nature

Modelling based on pooled data from 11 European countries indicates that non-pharmaceutical interventions—particularly lockdowns—have had a marked effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, driving the reproduction number of the infection below 1.

www.nature.com

Published source:

The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic - Nature

Analyses of COVID-19 infection rates show that non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved large, beneficial and measurable health outcomes in China, South Korea, Italy, Iran, France and the United States; these results may inform decisions on whether or when these interventions should be...

www.nature.com

A tad pessimistic.

 

[pixel_ninja]

And the rest of the world doesn't have immunity either BTW.
NZ have shown that we can extinguish the virus and save lives without exposing everyone to the virus to build up some kind of immunity which we don't even know exists.

I would say that this is overlooked a lot. The immunity may only be temporary, nevermind the possible scarring to your lungs, or you know - Dying?

 

[MiW]

Much simpler than that. All you need is grade 5 maths to handle these ratios.

Not really, you are comparing the deaths, not the cases of one region with lots of elderly people with completely overwhelmed hospitals at the time, with an entire country. Will need to pull lots of numbers from my behind to come to infection rates there.
Also it doesn't disprove some immunity (cross from other corona viruses, common cold) in larger populations , which seems to vary drastically in EU.

 

[Verde]

Only 290 people under age 60 with no pre existing conditions died from/with C-19 in English hospitals.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations

www.england.nhs.uk

 

[MiW]

Only 290 people under age 60 with no pre existing conditions died from/with C-19 in English hospitals.

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations

www.england.nhs.uk

View attachment 855925

The biggest problem I have with that , is high blood pressure being pre existing condition.

Reports on the prevalence of high blood pressure in the elderly indicate that between 30 and 50 percent of persons over the age of 50 may have chronic hypertension.

Not a personal issue, I suffer from low BP, but basically half the population over 50 , can be very healthy and still fall in the category.

 

[flippakitten]

Wife's cooking that bad he?

I cooked a lot of it so I know there was at least 10 times more garlic than the recipe called for and I still couldn't taste it.

 

[ganja bobby]

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says

Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, said the WHO's Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Verde]

Not really, you are comparing the deaths, not the cases of one region with lots of elderly people with completely overwhelmed hospitals at the time, with an entire country. Will need to pull lots of numbers from my behind to come to infection rates there.
Also it doesn't disprove some immunity (cross from other corona viruses, common cold) in larger populations , which seems to vary drastically in EU.

I agree there may well be some cross immunity. It was unfortunately not enough to prevent the disaster in Bergamo.

The seroprevalence study in Spain supports the cross immunity hypothesis as it found much lower prevalence in children (who suffer more colds) than older people.

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

Health authorities in Bergamo said the results were based on a “random” sample which was “sufficiently broad” to be a reliable indicator of how many people had been infected in the province, which became the epicentre of Italy’s outbreak.

In a separate statement issued later, the Bergamo health agency said that most of those in the sample were residents of the worst-hit areas. Many had already been put under quarantine, the statement added.


Antibodies were found in just over 30% of the 10,404 health operators tested although they are generally considered more at risk than other people.

In a report released in early May, national statistics institute ISTAT said the number of deaths in Bergamo was up 568% in March compared with the 2015-2019 average, making it Italy’s worst-hit city in terms of deaths.

 

[tetrasect]

Not really, you are comparing the deaths, not the cases of one region with lots of elderly people with completely overwhelmed hospitals at the time, with an entire country. Will need to pull lots of numbers from my behind to come to infection rates there.
Also it doesn't disprove some immunity (cross from other corona viruses, common cold) in larger populations , which seems to vary drastically in EU.

What proof is there of immunity? And what makes you think that "some immunity" would even make a dent in the spread at infection rates as low as 5.2% in Spain?

 

[Brian_G]

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says

Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, said the WHO's Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove.

www.cnbc.com

See previous page or two - discussed, and not believable. No surprise since it's from the WHO.

 

[tetrasect]

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

Health authorities in Bergamo said the results were based on a “random” sample which was “sufficiently broad” to be a reliable indicator of how many people had been infected in the province, which became the epicentre of Italy’s outbreak.

In a separate statement issued later, the Bergamo health agency said that most of those in the sample were residents of the worst-hit areas. Many had already been put under quarantine, the statement added.


Antibodies were found in just over 30% of the 10,404 health operators tested although they are generally considered more at risk than other people.

In a report released in early May, national statistics institute ISTAT said the number of deaths in Bergamo was up 568% in March compared with the 2015-2019 average, making it Italy’s worst-hit city in terms of deaths.

Good to finally know, we've been waiting for those results for a while. Now we wait for them to lift all restrictions and see if that 57% will be enough to be considered herd immunity or if another 10-40% get sick...

 

[The Voice]

See previous page or two - discussed, and not believable. No surprise since it's from the WHO.

I mean, they're the same people who said it wasn't contagious. That was before it killed 400k people around the world, though. Big "oopsy"?

 

[Geoff.D]

Good to finally know, we've been waiting for those results for a while. Now we wait for them to lift all restrictions and see if that 57% will be enough to be considered herd immunity or if another 10-40% get sick...

Based on the simple formula tabled in the NZ guy's presentation, a HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) of 57% implies an initial value R0 of 2.3.

[Had I tabled that formula weeks ago, I would have been lambasted as not knowing what I am talking about because I am not an Epiwthatisname, just an engineer]

So what was the initial calculated value of the Infection Rate (R0) for Bergamo?

Note. Initial estimates of the R0 for Covid 19 varied from 3.8 - 8.9, which would mean a HIT of between 73% - 88%.
Now that more data is available, the latest estimates for R0 for Covid 19 seems to lie in the range of 1.4 - 3.9, which implies a HIT of 29% - 74%.

Note, it is not really good practice to use the Effective Infection Rate Re or Rt to do the above calculation but many do anyway. This is because very few bother to understand what R0 means.

The formula is HIT (%) = (1 - 1/R0)100

 

[Geoff.D]

I mean, they're the same people who said it wasn't contagious. That was before it killed 400k people around the world, though. Big "oopsy"?

Don't think they steeped that low but did make out as if it was no worse than a bad flu. And to be honest, in some parts of the World it may turn out to be that when the dust settles.

 

[MiW]

What proof is there of immunity? And what makes you think that "some immunity" would even make a dent in the spread at infection rates as low as 5.2% in Spain?

There is a proof of cross immunity with MERS,SARS , and more difficult to study common colds types (because people in general don't test the strain of common cold coronaviruses) .

The latest strong believe in some scientists, and very logical conclusion, is that your T-cells ,which memorize pathogens they fought trough your lifetime, can instruct and mobilize your immune system very fast , if they were exposed to similar virus.

That also will make difference in the fatalities , in different countries and regions, as flu and cold , is very often localized .

By the way T-cells diminish with age

There is an increasing focus on the role of T cells during ageing because of their impact on the overall immune responses. A steady decline in the production of fresh naïve T cells, more restricted T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire and weak activation of T cells are some of the effects of ageing.

 

[Alan]

Victoria Police closed a popular Mornington Peninsula pier over concerns that locals and visitors were not “observing social-distancing requirements” just two days after thousands marched through the streets of Melbourne without penalty.

People would be “moved on” if they visited Rye pier and more local attractions would be shut if social-distancing was not observed, the police later said.

The apparent double standard in policing comes as health authorities consider lifting social-distancing restrictions more quickly and pressure mounts on states that let thousands of people march in Black Lives Matter protests on Saturday.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

 

[Geoff.D]

There is a proof of cross-immunity with MERS, SARS, and more difficult to study common colds types (because people, in general, don't test the strain of common cold coronaviruses).

The latest strong believe in some scientists (and a very logical conclusion), is that your T-cells, which memorize pathogens they fought trough your lifetime, can instruct and mobilize your immune system very fast if they were exposed to a similar virus.

That also will make a difference in the fatalities, in different countries and regions, as flu and cold, is very often localized.

By the way, T-cells diminish with age

Again, just to be difficult, there IS quite a lot of evidence around to support the theory that there are many people out there (probably in the younger age groups) that have some sort of built-in immunity to novel viruses. (being exposed to flu and colds and other viruses, and an active immune system geared up to attack new (for them) viruses).

Which means the SEIR models would generate better predictions IF this 'natural Immunity' was taken into account somehow to reduce the total vulnerable population in their models, which would mean lower extremes etc.

[That means that other Profs' "dark matter analogy" is not all that out of line, after all, heh heh].

 

[Brian_G]

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

Has happened in more than one country now. Why the police shyness with current protests and marches? Are they worried it will be too much of adding fuel to the fire given everyone's claustrophobically created sensitivities these days?

 

[tetrasect]

Even In A Pandemic, WHO Believes That Public Protests Are Important

Even In A Pandemic, WHO Believes That Public Protests Are Important

The World Health Organization, in a press conference on Monday, expressed solidarity with the demonstrations calling for racial justice — and shared advice to reduce the risk of catching COVID-19.

www.npr.org

As more Americans head out, 22 states are seeing jumps in new coronavirus cases

As more Americans head out, 22 states are seeing jumps in new coronavirus cases | CNN

While states lift more restrictions, almost half of US states are seeing higher rates of new coronavirus cases. But the situation would have been much worse had states not shut down, a new study says.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Verde]

Spain’s National Statistics Institute registers 44,000 excess deaths in first five months of the year compared to 2019

A massive spike appears in March and April, when the coronavirus crisis reached its peak in the country

english.elpais.com

God help us if this is true!
Excess deaths reported up to mid May in Spain just jumped by 50% from 29000 to 44000.
That takes the estimated IFR from 1.2% to 1.8%.

Let's hope the final rounds of the seroprevalence survey finds a lot of new antibodies.