International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

[Geoff.D]

So when can we expect a spike in these graphs with all the rioting ?

As fas as I can tell from the dozens of opinions from the experts, 6- 8 days after infection is typical.

Other experts say, 5 - 6 days up to 14 days.

 

[nivek]

So when can we expect a spike in these graphs with all the rioting ?

The virus doesn't spread at riots, only Trump rallys

 

[Paulsie]

If this was even ten years ago, there would've been no lockdown. There's just something about this time, with it's sensitivity that seems wrong

These days, all hell breaks loose around the world when someome mistakenly uses an incorrect word and God forbid offends someone's sensitivities.

What did we think was going to happen with an actual virus??

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1274804100484431872

Holy moly.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1274304632450355201

What's the point of condescending and disingenuous Twits like this guy?

"paralysing and exaggerated fear..."

Countries like Denmark, Germany, NZ, etc. are able to re-open and go back to something resembling 'normal' much sooner because they took it seriously and didn't listen to tossers like him.

It was either rated 1 or 2 in ability to handle a pandemic...before a pandemic hit. Will try to find the link (note: I'm not a fan of NHS centralisation or the way it is funded. Swiss and German healthcare systems are, IMO, much better. The Financial Times had an article why Germany handled it so well and one of the features was the decentralised nature of the healthcare system). The most recent example of NHS wastefulness is the contact tracing app the NHS was going to produce. They have chucked that idea and using a free app from Apple or Google.

Edit: Here is the link: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/these-are-the-countries-best-prepared-for-health-emergencies/

Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that the NHS didn't exactly fall over in what it's responsible for, i.e. the actual provision of healthcare. There's a lot more to pandemic response than having capable hospitals. Johnson's fluffed the other bits, which isn't the NHS' fault.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Interesting research cited in the opinion article:

In a way it's a distinction without a difference. 'Lockdowns' are effectively stringently enforced social distancing.

There also isn't a uniform definition. In the US, for example, you had weeks where states that designated themselves as 'opening up', or 'mostly open', but in reality had more stringent restrictions than other states that were officially still 'locked down'.

 

[OrbitalDawn]

All those who went out and marched for BLM?
Dumb asses.

So when can we expect a spike in these graphs with all the rioting ?

No evidence of it yet, from thousands of tests in some of the cities that had the biggest protests, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, St. Paul, etc.

The protests started almost a month ago, so you'd definitely have started seeing the spikes if there was a lot of transmission.

Still, early days for some of the areas that had protests.

Early Data Show No Uptick in Covid-19 Transmission From Protests

Early testing data from a handful of U.S. cities and states suggest that recent protests against racial injustices haven’t yet led to a marked uptick in new cases.

www.wsj.com

The virus doesn't spread at riots, only Trump rallys

Unironically, this.

Large, indoor events with people who think the virus isn't real, don't wear masks and don't care about social distancing and sing/shout for a long time is likely much more risky than outdoor events where people wear masks/hand sanitize.

Fortunately the first rally was a flop in terms of turnout, so schadenfreude combined with relief.

 

[realkingkam]

Ay what happened to all the just is just a flu warriors.

Anyway .. been reading about all the chat on masks , still surprised to see so many people trot along with their cloth masks on and concerned that so many at risk people don't even know what a N95 mask is, was chatting to my wife the world has lost the plot people just do not value life. Crazy times indeed.

Myself i take no chances , kitted my family out with N95'S, sanitizers in all vehicles proper training on doning and doffing PPE. Aim of the game ... don't catch it ,

The world over , if America recorded 100 000 deaths in the first million infections, logically at 2 million the deaths should double and so on. So for SA at 100 000 we should hit 10 000 deaths.

Its all just a matter of time. 8mil infections due to behavioral change it is spreading alot slower wonder if we will reach a billion infections before a vac ?

If they do Vaccine this it will definitely lead to great improvements in the medical field for other nasty diseases that we were not able to Vaccinate.

 

[noxibox]

I hope this helps someone, should they need it. Some of you might find this interesting, I'm not sure if it has been mentioned here.
https://www.wearebodypolitic.com/covid19

It is a support group for people who have the long term variation of the virus. I found it through this article.
For anyone who believes it's false, fake news or a load of crap
This is Paul Garner

I would have thought that someone who is supposedly involved in the study of illness would know that this can happen after a viral infection.

The NHS the best in the world???

This article is from 2015 but describes down to a T the malaise the UK Healthcare still struggles with to this day.

The UK has 'one of the worst healthcare systems in the developed world'

Hospitals so underequipped that people are dying needlessly because of a chronic lack of investment

www.independent.co.uk

It has regularly been rated highly. It's best to look at the ratings of each individual area they evaluate to get a clearer picture. The NHS has deficiencies of course, and yet it returns an overall good rating. But it's not a static system either. It is monitored and worked on. It's services are expanded and improved.

I'm not challenging the "free for all" side, even though it's paid through tax. I'm challenging the effectively best in the world part.

I believe Sweden, Norway, Germany and Switzerland are just as "socialistic", if not more, with much better care overall.

Edit: even the Czech Republic has a compulsory health insurance paid through employee/employer contribution, but they can choose which medical insurance company to go with. This system is great for providing excellent care for all, while keeping prices lower through competition, while avoiding the quagmire of having a single behemoth of the likes in NHS.

The only thing that keeps prices lower in health care is the threat of government intervention or negotiation of fixed prices. Some countries do the former, others do the latter. What we do know is that left to themselves, without that sword hanging over their head, prices will be escalated.

You don't avoid the quagmire either by having multiple competing sources of health services. You just have a different quagmire to deal with.

 

[tetrasect]

The only thing that keeps prices lower in health care is the threat of government intervention or negotiation of fixed prices. Some countries do the former, others do the latter. What we do know is that left to themselves, without that sword hanging over their head, prices will be escalated.

You don't avoid the quagmire either by having multiple competing sources of health services. You just have a different quagmire to deal with.

Not true at all. There are countries in SE Asia where there is basically zero regulation. There is no such thing as a doctor's prescription as you can buy antibiotics, anxiety meds and even painkillers (schedule 5 here in SA) at the local pharmacy (they basically act as the doctor) or sometimes even at the corner shop for next to nothing (like 10 cents per tablet). Their hospitals/dentists/abortion clinics (you name it) are among the cheapest in the world.

 

[flippakitten]

Effectively medical aid level treatment for free. I'm not one to complain.

You queue and wait for the same amount of time as SA Gov hospitals.
Got a non life threating operation, 6 months wait.
Everything is rushed, so all your appointments are rushed.

It's ok to good but it's not medical aid level, not by a long shot.

If you want medical aid level in UK you pay for it, just like South Africa.

 

[flippakitten]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1274304632450355201

The comments from people on that thread is exactly why we haven't seen the end of the first wave yet.

 

[flippakitten]

Ay what happened to all the just is just a flu warriors.

Anyway .. been reading about all the chat on masks , still surprised to see so many people trot along with their cloth masks on and concerned that so many at risk people don't even know what a N95 mask is, was chatting to my wife the world has lost the plot people just do not value life. Crazy times indeed.

Myself i take no chances , kitted my family out with N95'S, sanitizers in all vehicles proper training on doning and doffing PPE. Aim of the game ... don't catch it ,

The world over , if America recorded 100 000 deaths in the first million infections, logically at 2 million the deaths should double and so on. So for SA at 100 000 we should hit 10 000 deaths.

Its all just a matter of time. 8mil infections due to behavioral change it is spreading alot slower wonder if we will reach a billion infections before a vac ?

If they do Vaccine this it will definitely lead to great improvements in the medical field for other nasty diseases that we were not able to Vaccinate.

N95's protect you if worn properly AND with eye protection.
Cloth coverings reduce the rate of infection.

What needs to happen is everyone needs to wear a covering of some sort when in closed public spaces and wash their hands. Keep as much distance between you and other people, it's not hard and it's effective. The idea is to break the transmission chains.

 

[flippakitten]

So when can we expect a spike in these graphs with all the rioting ?

It's all about transmission chains, if 1 person at the protests and/or riots has covid, they pass it onto one or two people, they then infect their friends/family, who then go to work and infect their collegues and so on.

If people take things seriously and break those chains, we might not see a spike at all but the little bit of faith that I had in people has been totally destroyed recently so I fully expect the numbers to become exponential again but we'll see I guess.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Coronavirus: Sweden starts to debate its public health experiment | Free to read

The Nordic country has tried to stay as open as possible but with rising deaths its policy faces growing scrutiny

www.ft.com

Remember this comment:

Dear Richard, would someone of the FT look into how Neil Ferguson's adjusted Covid19 modelling, which predicted around 85k-90k fatalities in Sweden alone by the June the 1st had they continued with their policies, when in actual fact it turned out they only had 4.2k at that point?
The problem was that the vast majority of countries followed HIS advice - I think the numbers talk for themselves around who was right and who was wrong, or am I missing something here?
KR

 

[Lupus]

Coronavirus: Sweden starts to debate its public health experiment | Free to read

The Nordic country has tried to stay as open as possible but with rising deaths its policy faces growing scrutiny

www.ft.com

Remember this comment:

They are also under us on total "infections" but quite a bit more deaths.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

They are also under us on total "infections" but quite a bit more deaths.

Not quite fair to compare highly developed Sweden to SA though given our vastly different socio-economic profiles.

 

[Lupus]

Not quite fair to compare highly developed Sweden to SA though given our vastly different socio-economic profiles.

But one went into complete economical lockdown, crushing it's people, the other didn't.

 

[Rosaudio]

It is interesting to have a case study such as Sweden. As they themeselves are syaing, nobody knows yet whether this strategy is the best one in the long term. Looking at deaths now you could easily say no, but you have to factor in other things such as mental health and economy - as mentioned in the article.

The only issue with the economy argument is that most other countries have locked down, which will always have an effect on Sweden economically regardless of thier approach.

The fact that Nowray and Finland are open to eachother but closed to Sweden is quite funny but sad at the same time.

Only time will tell.

 

[Verde]

The world over , if America recorded 100 000 deaths in the first million infections, logically at 2 million the deaths should double and so on. So for SA at 100 000 we should hit 10 000 deaths.

This is not as logical as you think.
The fatality rate is dependant on the age demographic of the infected population as C19 mortality risk has a very steep age gradient.

The changing face of coronavirus in Florida: Younger victims, and what that means

The age of typical coronavirus victims has plummeted in Florida, shifting away from the elderly, in a change with significant implications for the disease’s future. The median age for coronav…

www.sun-sentinel.com

According to the study linked below the risk of dying once infected ranges from 5.6% for over 65's to less than .01% (1 in 10000) for under 50's.

https://osf.io/wdbpe/

 

[MiW]

Not quite fair to compare highly developed Sweden to SA though given our vastly different socio-economic profiles.

I hope SA will never reach Sweden's levels of forced euthanasia for the elderly and not so fit of the population.