International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

[Lupus]

Was just looking at new cases vs tests done in Brazil.

Yesterdays numbers show 43,694 tests done and 41,541 positives!!!

That means 95 out of 100 people tested were positive... that's just insane. 95% positive!!!

Can only imagine the numbers if they had the ability test a million people a day.

That sounds like proper targetted testing.

 

[Geoff.D]

Was just looking at new cases vs tests done in Brazil.

Yesterdays numbers show 43,694 tests done and 41,541 positives!!!

That means 95 out of 100 people tested were positive... that's just insane. 95% positive!!!

Can only imagine the numbers if they had the ability test a million people a day.

I don't understand the hype around this measurement.
You could say Brazil is doing an excellent job of identifying who should be tested and are only testing those that need to be tested. So the tests are hopefully driving the treatment of patients only.

The only way this picture change is IF the testing philosophy is changed.
If the country has a strategy of pursuing "herd immunity" why bother to undertake mass testing when you want people to get the virus?

 

[tetrasect]

I don't understand the hype around this measurement.
You could say Brazil is doing an excellent job of identifying who should be tested and are only testing those that need to be tested. So the tests are hopefully driving the treatment of patients only.

The only way this picture change is IF the testing philosophy is changed.
If the country has a strategy of pursuing "herd immunity" why bother to undertake mass testing when you want people to get the virus?

What are you talking about? Pursuing "herd immunity" has never been the countries strategy.

And 95% positives does not mean you're doing a good job, it means you are doing a terrible job. It means you have so little testing capacity that you can only test those who have symptoms so far advanced that there is no doubt that they have Covid-19.
It means the virus is so far out of their control that they have no idea how widespread it might be.
It's a complete failure.

Testing is supposed to help prevent further infections, not confirm that someone coughing in hospital with low blood oxygen or on a ventilator actually does have Covid-19.

 

[Geoff.D]

Oi, you are slow this morning. The irony/sarcasm is missed. Maybe I should highlight the post?

 

[tetrasect]

Oi, you are slow this morning. The irony/sarcasm is missed. Maybe I should highlight the post?

So you're suggesting Brazil actually has the capacity to do millions(?) of tests per day but their policy dictates they only test those who are in desperate need of medical treatment?

That's just not true.

They have reached their maximum testing capacity.

And besides that, what would a test be good for at that stage anyway? Covid-19 is treated symptomatically, so whether they are positive or not, if they show the same symptoms they would need the same treatment.

 

[Geoff.D]

If that is your belief why make an issue out of it?


Brazil's response to the virus has been bogged down in controversy since day one.
Very similar to the USA's response.
Does anyone know and understand what is going on in both countries?

If you are doing targetted testing then surely it is only to determine treatment?
If you are doing mass testing, it is to try to and gauge the extent of the problem?

 

[Gordon_R]

Detailed article about the epidemic in India, which is widespread but under-reported:

Coronavirus: Is India the next global hotspot?

India's confirmed cases are going up rapidly, but it's not all bad news.

www.bbc.com

 

[tetrasect]

If that is your belief why make an issue out of it?


Brazil's response to the virus has been bogged down in controversy since day one.
Very similar to the USA's response.
Does anyone know and understand what is going on in both countries?

If you are doing targetted testing then surely it is only to determine treatment?
If you are doing mass testing, it is to try to and gauge the extent of the problem?

You're making assumptions seemingly pulled out of thin air...
Where do you get the idea that Brazil's policy is reaching herd immunity and purposely only doing little and very targeted testing?
I've never heard anyone say that.

Pretty much every article about Brazil says they are simply unable to test more people because of a massive shortage of tests, leading to an increase in positives per test conducted.

EDIT:

What's very concerning to me is that it looks like SA is following that same path.

 

[joshuatree]

Millions of Australians back in lockdown amid Melbourne virus outbreak

(This July 7 story corrects to remove quote on commuting delay that was erroneously attributed)

www.reuters.com

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia’s second largest city, Melbourne, went back into lockdown at midnight on Wednesday, forcing five million Australians to stay home for all but essential business for the next six weeks to contain a flare-up of coronavirus cases.

------

Will South Africa copy and paste? Lets see what happens in Gauteng.

 

[Geoff.D]

You're making assumptions seemingly pulled out of thin air...
Where do you get the idea that Brazil's policy is reaching herd immunity and purposely only doing little and very targeted testing?
I've never heard anyone say that.

Pretty much every article about Brazil says they are simply unable to test more people because of a massive shortage of tests, leading to an increase in positives per test conducted.

EDIT:

What's very concerning to me is that it looks like SA is following that same path.

View attachment 872025

A similar write up about SA can be found here.

Page not found – Coronavirus SA

A new series on the how and why behind the various charts on the Coronavirus in SA Dashboard, and some ideas on what we can, or can’t learn from them. When we started the Coronavirus dashboard in mid-March the publicly-available data on infections was limited but regular and often detailed. Over...

coronavirus.mediahack.co.za

There is only value in this parameter IF the testing strategy is known and the parameter is used to measure the "success" of the testing done to work towards achieving the goals of that strategy.

So assuming SA's strategy is to know what the extent of the infections are, then we have been steadily doing worse.
Now knowing that the reason for this needs to be analysed, and ours appears to be a combination of inability (capacity limitation) to do more and a shortage of testing kits.

 

[saor]

Your Mask Cuts Own Risk by 65 Percent

Scientific evidence is clear: Social distancing and wearing masks help prevent people from spreading COVID-19, and masks also protect those who wear them, two UC Davis Health experts said on UC Davis LIVE: COVID-19. A range of new research on face coverings shows that the risk of infection to the wearer is decreased by 65 percent, said Dean Blumberg, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Children’s Hospital.

https://www.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/news/your-mask-cuts-own-risk-65-percent/

 

[Paulsie]

Millions of Australians back in lockdown amid Melbourne virus outbreak

(This July 7 story corrects to remove quote on commuting delay that was erroneously attributed)

www.reuters.com

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia’s second largest city, Melbourne, went back into lockdown at midnight on Wednesday, forcing five million Australians to stay home for all but essential business for the next six weeks to contain a flare-up of coronavirus cases.

------

Will South Africa copy and paste? Lets see what happens in Gauteng.

Australia's lockdown still permits all work, exercise, food shopping, restaurant takeouts etc. Not that much different to what SA has at the moment and far more sensible

 

[Lupus]

Australia's lockdown still permits all work, exercise, food shopping, restaurant takeouts etc. Not that much different to what SA has at the moment and far more sensible

Yup it's not like our hard lockdown

 

[OrbitalDawn]

If that is your belief why make an issue out of it?


Brazil's response to the virus has been bogged down in controversy since day one.
Very similar to the USA's response.
Does anyone know and understand what is going on in both countries?

If you are doing targetted testing then surely it is only to determine treatment?
If you are doing mass testing, it is to try to and gauge the extent of the problem?

Both have incompetent buffoons in charge, who are in denial about the virus and keep treating it like a PR problem instead of a public health crisis?

 

[pouroverguy]

Doctors are better at treating COVID-19 patients now than they were in March

“There’s so much that’s different, and so much that’s the same.”

www.theverge.com

 

[OrbitalDawn]

This is what people don't understand, the risks are there with the flu and even normal coronaviruses. But this one is just so publicised though.

What people are you talking about? It's pretty well known that this is a risk with other strains of influenza. And obviously this is getting publicised more given the current pandemic.

Yes it is having such complications even now, with our understanding of it, it's a virus we cannot cure a virus we can get vaccines for it. But there are still complications that can lead to brain damage. People need to stop thinking the flu is nothing, the Spanish flu was an H1N1 virus, same as a lot of flus, what it caused can still be caused today.

Agreed. I really hope this pandemic makes people appreciate the danger from common respiratory illnesses more. It doesn't have to be this dangerous to be taken seriously. And there's quite a bit that can be done to stop their spread.

 

[Mephisto_Helix]

Telegraph -

Thousands took to the streets, but did they spread more than their message? A public health chief has asked for an investigation after fears that Black Lives Matter protests led to a rise in coronavirus cases in his city. The Telegraph can reveal that officials in Birmingham have called for a national inquiry into a rise in cases seen 10 days after thousands gathered in the city on June 4. The Government had urged people to stay away from large protests due to concern that mass gatherings could fuel the spread of Covid-19.

Yahoo News article -

Officials in Los Angeles, Seattle, and Miami-Dade County, Fla., have acknowledged that anti-police protests and riots may have led to increased spread of the coronavirus, according to a Fox News report.

All three cities have experienced an uptick in coronavirus cases after weeks of protesting sparked by the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody. Many Democrats and public-health professionals alike had voiced support of the demonstrations, including Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti.

Two days after maintaining that there wasn’t “any conclusive evidence” showing a connection between protests and a surge in cases of the virus, Garcetti did an about-face, saying the county’s public-health director “does think some of the spread did come from our protests.”

The county reported a record 3,187 new coronavirus cases on Friday, the highest daily total since the start of the pandemic, according to health officials on Sunday.

Well durr .... add all the idiots having parties and flocking to the beach and bars, etc etc etc. What a waste of a lockdown.

 

[pouroverguy]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30215-7/fulltext

Edit:

TL;DR: The rate of ICU admissions for Paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 was at least 11-fold higher than historical trends for similar inflammatory conditions during the study period.

 

[noxibox]

https://www.ucdavis.edu/coronavirus/news/your-mask-cuts-own-risk-65-percent/

I don't know why people have to persistently exaggerate the benefit of masks.

direct evidence is limited, the optimum use of face masks, in particular N95 or similar respirators in health-care settings and 12–16-layer cotton or surgical masks in the community, could depend on contextual factors

Because of inconsistent reporting, information is limited about whether aerosol-generating procedures were in place in studies using respirators, and whether masks worn by infected patients might alter the effectiveness of each intervention

low certainty (our confidence in the effect estimate is limited; the true effect could be substantially different from the estimate of the effect)

high-quality research, including randomised trials of the optimum physical distance and the effectiveness of different types of masks in the general population and for health-care workers' protection, is urgently needed

The meta-analysis also only applies to N95, surgical masks and 12-16 layer cloth masks.

But they additionally claim "Wearing face masks was also acceptable and feasible." I don't know how they pulled that from their meta-analysis. It's difficult to get medical staff to wear masks consistently, due to comfort issues. This is likely to be even more of a problem with the general public.

There have also been studies that found masks blocked a significant amount of material yet in practice there was an insignificant difference in infections between those wearing masks and those not. Now that could be down to inconsistent use due to poor tolerability. This would certainly match what I have observed in the real world - the majority of people cannot keep them on for long.

 

[Geoff.D]

I don't know why people have to persistently exaggerate the benefit of masks.






The meta-analysis also only applies to N95, surgical masks and 12-16 layer cloth masks.

But they additionally claim "Wearing face masks was also acceptable and feasible." I don't know how they pulled that from their meta-analysis. It's difficult to get medical staff to wear masks consistently, due to comfort issues. This is likely to be even more of a problem with the general public.

There have also been studies that found masks blocked a significant amount of material yet in practice there was an insignificant difference in infections between those wearing masks and those not. Now that could be down to inconsistent use due to poor tolerability. This would certainly match what I have observed in the real world - the majority of people cannot keep them on for long.

The issue is, masks have been shown to limit the spread -- That should be enough to STOP criticising the wearing of masks.
Forget the technicalities and the issues. It is a simple measure that people can understand.