International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

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Geoff.D

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It's a useless graph because each country is at a different point in the their respective epidemics. If testing had been constant the infections would parralell the deaths. We know this, the only question is what is the true IFR in context of that graph.

That graph also completely leaves out hospitalizations which is the actual issue. We've long since moved on from high death rate. The only ones pushing the death rate are the people that argue it's less than 1%.
And the "Death Rate" means what?

Mortality Rate, CFR, IFR, what?
 

Mephisto_Helix

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So Manchester gave the old 2 fingers to Boris, who then turned around and said they will have crisis talks with local leaders ...... and those local leaders have heard nothing more. That along with central government saying most hospitals in those stage 2 and 3 areas icu's are getting full and nurses saying nope they're not, really does nothing more than cause more chaos.
 

tetrasect

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So Manchester gave the old 2 fingers to Boris, who then turned around and said they will have crisis talks with local leaders ...... and those local leaders have heard nothing more. That along with central government saying most hospitals in those stage 2 and 3 areas icu's are getting full and nurses saying nope they're not, really does nothing more than cause more chaos.

I guess it depends on how you define "getting" :p

It does look like they should be concerned though, seeing as hospital admissions are back to what they were 1 month after the first lockdown...

UK Hospital.png
 
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noxibox

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Another complicating factor is that since there are many different fatality rates when looking at variables like age, weight and all kinds of different health factors, it makes estimating the overall fatality rate for a whole country extremely difficult.
Sounds like something that is pretty standard.

That is a political rider unrelated to the data, though (which has not changed significantly).
It's not uncommon. I've seen research that challenges the orthodoxy on salt having a disclaimer saying they're not suggesting the standard message is wrong, even though their paper is all about showing it is wrong.

It's a useless graph because each country is at a different point in the their respective epidemics. If testing had been constant the infections would parralell the deaths. We know this, the only question is what is the true IFR in context of that graph.
I'd expect deaths as a percentage of positives to drop over time when the number of tests remained constant.

That graph also completely leaves out hospitalizations which is the actual issue. We've long since moved on from high death rate. The only ones pushing the death rate are the people that argue it's less than 1%.
The terrible deadliness is still being used as justification for measures, so we haven't moved on. The lower estimates in that paper especially would throw it all into question. Even the highest estimate is a factor of ten lower than the official death rate.

I dont think there was really any doubt that the IFR was much lower than thought back then. I think the biggest initial critic of the May report has now even supported the new one.
There was plenty of doubt about the magnitude of the difference and those who suggested the percentage of those infected who died was way lower than the apparent rate were loudly and vigorously shouted down.
 

dualmeister

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Europe set a record this week for new coronavirus infections, overtaking the U.S. in cases per capita, and a top World Health Organization (WHO) official warned Thursday that death rates on the continent this winter could be five times worse than the April peak if people are not strict about masks and social distancing.

Well after Europe seemed to have largely tamed the virus that proved so lethal last spring, newly confirmed infections are reaching unprecedented levels in Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy and Poland. Most of the rest of the continent is seeing similar danger signs.

Sourcehttps://www.dailysabah.com/world/worldwide-coronavirus-cases-climb-to-all-time-highs/news
 

tetrasect

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There was plenty of doubt about the magnitude of the difference and those who suggested the percentage of those infected who died was way lower than the apparent rate were loudly and vigorously shouted down.

I'm pretty sure I remember the reason for them being "shouted down" was their methodology. Wasn't it the case that the results of the first US seroprevalence studies actually showed a somewhat higher IFR which was then unnecessarily "adjusted" to make it much lower? Might be wrong but I'm pretty sure there was some serious doubt regarding their calculation methods.
 
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dualmeister

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Must watch.

Totally Under Control
 

TysonRoux

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Later in September, Yan co-authored a pre-print research paper named "Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route."[26] Three other researchers were listed as co-authors, but the SCMP was unable to find any prior work from them.[27] The paper was uploaded to the Zenodo website, an open-access repository where anyone can post their research.[28] The paper is affiliated with the Rule of Law Society, founded by Steve Bannon and Guo Wengui.[26][28] The Rule of Law Society had not previously published scientific or medical research.[28] Yan had previously appeared on Bannon's "War Room" podcast.[27][28]


I'm so shocked Fox News had a sensationalist interview with a quack. You can't find a more reliable source of information than this kak? Look at the comments on the video, people just gobble it up.
Shouldn't be shocked, that's exactly what Faux News is notorious for.




Bannon, 66, was arrested at 7:30 a.m. Thursday near Westbrook, Connecticut, on the yacht of exiled Chinese dissident Guo Wengui, according to two law enforcement officials. Federal agents, officials from the United States Postal Inspection Service and the United States Coast Guard, assisted, officials said.
 

Gordon_R

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Must watch.

Totally Under Control

Related story posted earlier in the week:
Interesting rant about SA and the USA, and new documentary about the American government response:
 

Nod

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Maybe the governments that actually implemented lockdowns, and still do?
 

tetrasect

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Maybe the governments that actually implemented lockdowns, and still do?

Lockdowns drastically reduce the transmission of the virus and if instated early on (and adhered to by the public) could easily have stopped the virus in it's tracks.
 

FNfal

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Lockdowns drastically reduce the transmission of the virus and if instated early on (and adhered to by the public) could easily have stopped the virus in it's tracks.
You have to be realistic about this the only lock down that would stop the virus in its tracks is impossible to implement .
No food or any thing moving including people , that is impossible to implement .
By the time the WHO and the rest of the world got their shyt together it was to late .
 

Flywheel

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Some countries in pre-emptive lockdown with their cock down made a massive mistake by listening to the projected stats about death rates. We are also guilty in ZA.
 
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