International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

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neoprema

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noxibox said:
No countries can afford an extended shutdown. But it probably wouldn't work anyway. People have to go out to get food and other supplies. People are still going to need doctors and dentists. If it is true that you can be infectious for while before showing any symptoms it is still going to spread, but maybe a bit slower.

Ultimately there is a huge cost - the economy, people's savings, children's education, people's mental health, etc.
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There will be lessons learnt from this, and I think lock downs will be looked at very differently next time around. Maybe not done away with, but certainly very differently.

Its also difficult to peg a lockdown level on a novel virus until you clearly understand whether you're dealing with a bad flu or the end of mankind...
 
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noxibox

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tetrasect said:
Saying lockdowns don't work based on what our government did (or any government for that matter) is like putting on a raincoat, getting shot and then saying "bullet proof vests don't work". :ROFL:
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So now you're saying nobody had a lockdown.

Bulletproof vests are in fact a good analogy to demonstrate that lockdowns won't work. Those vests only work in a very limited way. You can pretty easily get killed while wearing one.
 
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noxibox

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tetrasect said:
Exactly. If our government had shut down incoming international traffic as soon as news hit from China (like millions of people were calling for) and allocated even a tiny fraction of what this mess ended up costing towards proper tracing when the first case appeared then the initial lockdown period would have been sufficient to root out every one of the few infections.
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The key difference is that the measures actually implemented had costs as collateral damage whereas other measures required allocating money to be spent. This kind of thing happens in business all the time, so it is no surprise it happens in government. It's just human nature.

If the Italy hadn't spent years butchering and underfunding their health system they could have saved the costs of shutting off their economy. The UK is in a similar boat. But again properly funding health care required allocating money rather than simply collateral damage.
 
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noxibox said:
Ultimately there is a huge cost - the economy, people's savings, children's education, people's mental health, etc.
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This ^^ , have lockdowns really been worth the chaos they have caused to millions of people around the world.
 
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tetrasect

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noxibox said:
So now you're saying nobody had a lockdown.

Bulletproof vests are in fact a good analogy to demonstrate that lockdowns won't work. Those vests only work in a very limited way. You can pretty easily get killed while wearing one.
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Well I am talking about lockdowns meant to stop the virus at an early stage, not lockdowns just for the fun of seeing what the population will do when they are stuck at home with alcohol and nicotine withdrawal symptoms for months on end. :rolleyes:

I guess a better term would be "containment protocol" or something, of which a short lockdown is just a small part.
 
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garp

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Nanfeishen said:
This ^^ , have lockdowns really been worth the chaos they have caused to millions of people around the world.
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I think in hindsight the continued monomaniacal obsession with eliminating one virus, and only that one virus, with no consideration of the costs, long after it has become clear that despite being particularly dangerous to some people the overall mortality is far below previous pandemics like the Spanish Flu (and many current diseases) will seem like some kind of collective global insanity. Just one example of a cost - it is estimated that the excess preventable cancer deaths in the UK due to the lockdowns are already at the same level as the Covid deaths due to the reduction in screening and treatment - and that's just one health issue.
 
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noxibox

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Paulsie said:
Not so much - terrible headlining once again
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It's almost as though they don't expect anyone to read the article. An article that more than once says that the measures in Sweden are really recommendations. Plus it has multiple photographs of people out and about.

I was also pleased to read that regulations are being challenged and overturned in German courts, and that Italians are protesting against schools being closed.
 
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flippakitten

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garp said:
I think in hindsight the continued monomaniacal obsession with eliminating one virus, and only that one virus, with no consideration of the costs, long after it has become clear that despite being particularly dangerous to some people the overall mortality is far below previous pandemics like the Spanish Flu (and many current diseases) will seem like some kind of collective global insanity. Just one example of a cost - it is estimated that the excess preventable cancer deaths in the UK due to the lockdowns are already at the same level as the Covid deaths due to the reduction in screening and treatment - and that's just one health issue.
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Completely ignoring overwhelming hospitals.

And those cancer patients going into a hospital filled with covid patients?
The study probably mentions that they cannot calculate how many would be infected and die due to exposure.

The take away isn't that lockdowns are terrible because of the side effects it's that you should cater for all types diseases.

Also, At this point with the nightingale hospitals in place and prepared, normal proceadures should be able to continue, even at a reduced capacity.
 
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Nanfeishen

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garp said:
I think in hindsight the continued monomaniacal obsession with eliminating one virus, and only that one virus, with no consideration of the costs, long after it has become clear that despite being particularly dangerous to some people the overall mortality is far below previous pandemics like the Spanish Flu (and many current diseases) will seem like some kind of collective global insanity. Just one example of a cost - it is estimated that the excess preventable cancer deaths in the UK due to the lockdowns are already at the same level as the Covid deaths due to the reduction in screening and treatment - and that's just one health issue.
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Yep , The Rona created a health crisis all of its own, but the reponse to that crisis has created a myriad of other health crises that will be far longer lasting, and will continue to affect millions for many years to come.
 
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flippakitten

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Nanfeishen said:
Yep , The Rona created a health crisis all of its own, but the reponse to that crisis has created a myriad of other health crises that will be far longer lasting, and will continue to affect millions for many years to come.
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and this is based on what exactly?
 
tetrasect

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Lupus said:
A million tests a day, and here we are barely doing 13k a day...
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Population of over 1.3 Billion people and 1000 daily deaths , and here we are barely at 60 Million and less daily deaths than you can count on one hand.
 
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garp

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flippakitten said:
and this is based on what exactly?
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Seriously?

www.bbc.com

Coronavirus could cause 35,000 extra UK cancer deaths, experts warn

The research is based on the number of missed screenings, urgent referrals and delayed treatments.
www.bbc.com
www.theguardian.com

Male suicide rate hits two-decade high in England and Wales

Rate of 16.9 deaths per 100,000 in 2019 was highest since 2000, ONS data shows
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
www.telegraph.co.uk

Coronavirus lockdown could lead to nearly 1.5 million extra TB deaths, modelling study finds

Doctors report drop in number of new diagnoses leading to fears that disease could spread rapidly
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
www.nbcnews.com

U.N. warns 'hunger pandemic' looming amid fight against coronavirus

An additional 130 million people could be on the brink of starvation by the end of 2020 as a result of the outbreak and its economic ramifications.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
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garp

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tetrasect said:
Population of over 1.3 Billion people and 1000 daily deaths , and here we are barely at 60 Million and less daily deaths than you can count on one hand.
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And then there's China where this all started. A population of 1.4bn and 0 deaths reported since April 17. Hmmm...

1603106408018.png
 
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Paulsie

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flippakitten said:
That's as good as a lockdown in Sweden. People will lock down because they were asked to.

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Nothing different to what they had before - goverment announces what precautions should be taken and leaves the rest to its citizens. Exactly what has been happening for months and Sweden got criticized heavily.
All of a sudden, there are discussions about Sweden actually having had a form of a lockdown + recommendations going forward being portrayed as a lockdown itself.

Someone's really trying very hard to make seem like Swedens current and future success actually being down to a lockdown
 
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