International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

Status
Not open for further replies.
RedViking

RedViking

Nord of the South
Joined
Feb 23, 2012
Messages
58,156
Went to doctor today. Apparently you can now only get tested if you have a temp of 39 degrees and cough continuously.
 
V

Verde

Expert Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2006
Messages
1,592
buka001 said:
It is.

Look at the modelling.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1240008777837039616
Click to expand...

I wish I could get hold of Dr. Ashish Jha, (director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, who led a team of researchers that developed the analysis) to ask him a question about this report on his analysis which confuses me.

The article states:
"The numbers of infections reported by China and other countries, they said, are surely underestimates since not all infected people are tested or have serious symptoms."

Then a few paragraphs on:
"In the Harvard team’s moderate scenario — where 40% of the adult population contracts the disease over the course of a year — 98.9 million Americans would develop the coronavirus, though many will have mild or no symptoms, and will not have their diagnoses confirmed by tests.

But then:
"Slightly more than a fifth of all cases will require hospitalization. (That’s roughly the average number of patients requiring hospitalization in other countries.)
......... about a fifth of hospitalized patients, or nearly 5% of those infected, would become critically ill from COVID-19 and would need intensive care, such as the use of a ventilator."

It references the following report on 72314 cases in mainland China as support for the 20% and 5% of cases requiring hospital/ICU care:
jamanetwork.com

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report

This Viewpoint summarizes key epidemiologic and clinical findings from all cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported through February 11, 2020, in mainland China, and case trends in response to government attempts to control and contain the infection.
jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com

How can you state in one breath that China surely underestimated the cases, and then in the next rely on percentages derived from that flawed data to make projections.

Then to compound my incredulity if you go into the details of the China numbers you get:

72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)
  • Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)
  • Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)
  • Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)
  • Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)
Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)
  • Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)
  • Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
  • Critical: 5% (2087 cases)
So they used only lab confirmed cases to calculate the 20% and 5% hospitalisation and ICU rates.
For total cases there were 11% hospitalisations and 3% ICU.

The reason for not testing more is given as insufficient testing capacity. This strongly indicates that during the peak of the Wuhan outbreak only cases seeking medical help at hospitals were identified and of those only about 60% were tested. The US CDC estimates that only 50% of Flu victims seek medical help and the vast majority of those get that help from their GP's, not hospitals.

To date there were 68000 cases and 2900 deaths in Hubei province. If we assume all these cases were in Wuhan (population 11 million) where the disease was spreading unfettered from Nov till the 23 Jan lockdown, and thereafter amongst people sharing accommodation then only 0.6% of the population was infected.
Surely this infection rate is seriously undercounted.

Anyhow I support all efforts to mitigate against the risk of more Wuhan/Milan style breakdowns in health services in other cities around the world.
 
S

saffakanera

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 25, 2006
Messages
4,370
Verde said:
I wish I could get hold of Dr. Ashish Jha, (director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, who led a team of researchers that developed the analysis) to ask him a question about this report on his analysis which confuses me.

The article states:
"The numbers of infections reported by China and other countries, they said, are surely underestimates since not all infected people are tested or have serious symptoms."

Then a few paragraphs on:
"In the Harvard team’s moderate scenario — where 40% of the adult population contracts the disease over the course of a year — 98.9 million Americans would develop the coronavirus, though many will have mild or no symptoms, and will not have their diagnoses confirmed by tests.

But then:
"Slightly more than a fifth of all cases will require hospitalization. (That’s roughly the average number of patients requiring hospitalization in other countries.)
......... about a fifth of hospitalized patients, or nearly 5% of those infected, would become critically ill from COVID-19 and would need intensive care, such as the use of a ventilator."

It references the following report on 72314 cases in mainland China as support for the 20% and 5% of cases requiring hospital/ICU care:
jamanetwork.com

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report

This Viewpoint summarizes key epidemiologic and clinical findings from all cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported through February 11, 2020, in mainland China, and case trends in response to government attempts to control and contain the infection.
jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com

How can you state in one breath that China surely underestimated the cases, and then in the next rely on percentages derived from that flawed data to make projections.

Then to compound my incredulity if you go into the details of the China numbers you get:

72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)
  • Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)
  • Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)
  • Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)
  • Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)
Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)
  • Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)
  • Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
  • Critical: 5% (2087 cases)
So they used only lab confirmed cases to calculate the 20% and 5% hospitalisation and ICU rates.
For total cases there were 11% hospitalisations and 3% ICU.

The reason for not testing more is given as insufficient testing capacity. This strongly indicates that during the peak of the Wuhan outbreak only cases seeking medical help at hospitals were identified and of those only about 60% were tested. The US CDC estimates that only 50% of Flu victims seek medical help and the vast majority of those get that help from their GP's, not hospitals.

To date there were 68000 cases and 2900 deaths in Hubei province. If we assume all these cases were in Wuhan (population 11 million) where the disease was spreading unfettered from Nov till the 23 Jan lockdown, and thereafter amongst people sharing accommodation then only 0.6% of the population was infected.
Surely this infection rate is seriously undercounted.

Anyhow I support all efforts to mitigate against the risk of more Wuhan/Milan style breakdowns in health services in other cities around the world.
Click to expand...
Maybe you should take a break from all this, mate.
 
Unhappy438

Unhappy438

Honorary Master
Joined
May 25, 2011
Messages
24,915
saffakanera said:
Sorry, from a casual observer this thread seems a bit... obsessive and slightly teeny tiny little bit crazy.
Click to expand...

Looking at things from a scientific point of view whilst analysing data isn't crazy, it may be obsessive but if you are looking for something a little more light hearted or memey then perhaps try one of the other threads devoted to the topic?
 
TheJman

TheJman

Expert Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2011
Messages
4,738

Okay so he was confirmed on 5 March 2020 - who knows how long before he was sick... so at least 14 day recovery time - just wonder when he will test negative though and no longer be infectious

(Posted in wrong group accidentally.. but it's relevant for here)

Some good news!
 
The Voice

The Voice

Honorary Master
Joined
Jan 25, 2009
Messages
15,697
dualmeister said:
English tourist in Spain refuses to leave pool.

Click to expand...
That, I think, is part of the reason why the government hasn't enforced a lockdown (yet). After being told to avoid pubs, clubs and mass gatherings, what did thousands of people do? Went on a piss-up, because the British generally have this attitude of "who the **** are you to tell me what to do?".
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top