International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

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noxibox

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mertin_zn said:
Sorry if this has been discussed but if one did get the virus and has to self isolate what would be some of the meds one could take? Ive read anything with Ibuprofen is a no go. What local over the counter meds would be good for symptom control?
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The reason is that class of drugs can undermine your immune system. Makes sense since they are intended to reduce inflammation. That means avoiding them any time you're fighting an infection.

The best if you're looking for alternatives for pain or inflammation would be to ask a professional. And that would be a pharmacist, not a doctor.

wingnut771 said:
panado.
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Not really unless you have an out of control fever, and then you probably should be in or headed to hospital. Lowering a fever otherwise can be counterproductive when fighting off an infection.
 
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c3n0byt3

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noxibox said:
Not really unless you have an out of control fever, and then you probably should be in or headed to hospital. Lowering a fever otherwise can be counterproductive when fighting off an infection.
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I've been through quite a few doctors about that.
They all say no matter the medication, none can lower the fever enough such that it does not help fight the infection. Your body will always win in the fight for heat.
All they do is make you comfortable.

The issue with ibuprofen deals with other things like receptor sites for the virus.
 
rietrot

rietrot

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Verde said:
I wish I could get hold of Dr. Ashish Jha, (director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, who led a team of researchers that developed the analysis) to ask him a question about this report on his analysis which confuses me.

The article states:
"The numbers of infections reported by China and other countries, they said, are surely underestimates since not all infected people are tested or have serious symptoms."

Then a few paragraphs on:
"In the Harvard team’s moderate scenario — where 40% of the adult population contracts the disease over the course of year — 98.9 million Americans would develop the coronavirus, though many will have mild or no symptoms, and will not have their diagnoses confirmed by tests.

But then:
"Slightly more than a fifth of all cases will require hospitalization. (That’s roughly the average number of patients requiring hospitalization in other countries.)
......... about a fifth of hospitalized patients, or nearly 5% of those infected, would become critically ill from COVID-19 and would need intensive care, such as the use of a ventilator."

It references the following report on 72314 cases in mainland China as support for the 20% and 5% of cases requiring hospital/ICU care:
jamanetwork.com

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report

This Viewpoint summarizes key epidemiologic and clinical findings from all cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reported through February 11, 2020, in mainland China, and case trends in response to government attempts to control and contain the infection.
jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com

How can you state in one breath that China surely underestimated the cases, and then in the next rely on percentages derived from that flawed data to make projections.

Then to compound my incredulity if you go into the details of the China numbers you get:

72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)
  • Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)
  • Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)
  • Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)
  • Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)
Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)
  • Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)
  • Severe: 14% (6168 cases)
  • Critical: 5% (2087 cases)
So they used only lab confirmed cases to calculate the 20% and 5% hospitalisation and ICU rates.
For total cases there were 11% hospitalisations and 3% ICU.

The reason for not testing more is given as insufficient testing capacity. This strongly indicates that during the peak of the Wuhan outbreak only cases seeking medical help at hospitals were identified and of those only about 60% were tested. The US CDC estimates that only 50% of Flu victims seek medical help and the vast majority of those get that help from their GP's, not hospitals.

To date there were 68000 cases and 2900 deaths in Hubei province. If we assume all these cases were in Wuhan (population 11 million) where the disease was spreading unfettered from Nov till the 23 Jan lockdown, and thereafter amongst people sharing accommodation then only 0.6% of the population was infected.
Surely this infection rate is seriously undercounted.

Anyhow I support all efforts to mitigate against the risk of more Wuhan/Milan style breakdowns in health services in other cities around the world.
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If you have mild to no symptoms it is likely that you won't get tested.
The 5% is of the confirmed cases
They have to use China because even though any data from China is questionable it is all we have. So they gave you a bit of a disclaimer that it might all be BS. But trends are hard to break so maybe China lied about the absolute numbers but didn't completely break the trend.
 
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semaphore

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flippakitten

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saffakanera said:
View attachment 802853

Don't obsess over things completely outside of your direct sphere of control, focus on your immediate surrounding reality, observe these developments only once every two weeks (Good advice from a doctor.) or else you become like pic related. The last thing you want to become is "crazy internet guy".
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In two weeks you go from 51 cases to 2626 cases and in semi isolation, two weeks after than you're in total lockdown and 10k+ cases.

We're lied to by politicians and scientists were making best guesses up until we had Italy's data.
You go from 1
 
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reactor_sa

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CataclysmZA said:
What? No. You're making your own assumption here.

Worldometer's data doesn't tell the whole story. There isn't a breakdown in their data in the "Mild" cases to show how many of the mildly infected end up going to hospital and are discharged. "Requiring hospitalisation" means a lot of things, and that 6% are going to be the ones put in a medically induced coma with respirators in order to survive, or urgent dialysis, or some thing similar. "Requiring hospitalisation" could be the numbers of people getting booked in for two or three days for a chest X-ray, medication, and monitoring.

There isn't even information available in their data to show how many people have a serious condition like pneumonia who are recovering from it at home in self isolation. Or from diarrhoea. Or high fevers. Or hypoxia. Or encephalitis.

6% of active cases are serious or critical tallies with the number of people in the Wuhan study who were in critical condition (exacerbated by Italy and Iran's numbers which both have a sizeable elderly population being left by the wayside due to triage).
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Serious+critical almost certainly mean in hospital, if possible

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-...en-they-report-a-patients-state-a6696701.html
 
The_Right_Honourable_Brit

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London braces for lockdown as Government prepares emergency Coronavirus Bill

London is braced for a lockdown as the Government prepares emergency legislation to prevent the spread of coronavirus, The Telegraph understands.
Sources close to the mayor’s office say they expect a shutdown of the capital in the coming days. Legislation in the Coronavirus Bill would give the Government emergency powers to “close premises” and “restrict or prohibit events and gatherings” that includes restricting transport networks.
There is alarm in Whitehall that Boris Johnson’s call for people to avoid pubs and restaurants and to work at home is being ignored in large numbers.
New figures from Transport for London show a 19 per cent decline in Tube travel and just a ten per cent reduction on the buses. Anecdotal reports suggest some pubs remain packed after work.
A source close to Sadiq Khan, London’s mayor, said: “We expect a shutdown of London but nobody in central Government is saying when that will be or what form it will take. The prime minister is saying we need to go faster and further and there is a spike of cases in London which is running ahead of the country but what that actually means the mayor’s office doesn’t yet know because Downing Street hasn’t said.”
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gconey

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Pitbull said:
Like I said, it's there you are welcome to it.

Again, I'm not phased in the least of what you think, want or demand. The UK has been doing this exactly. Cancelled non-emergency surgery to open up more space in the system. Just because you want to throw around panic I must now beg at your mercy? :D GTFO! Again, I don't give half a tit...
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Okay forgive my ignorance, where is the data? You say I'm welcome to it, but where can I find it? I'm looking for a credible source for the 80% that you quoted. If you don't have it, then just admit you made it up, or if you have it then I'll admit I was wrong but at least we'll move along.

I find it laughable that you're quoting the UK's response. Case studies will eventually be done on their absolutely idiotic initial response to this infection.

You don't need to beg for mercy at the moment but you will eventually beg it from someone when the health system is overwhelmed.
 
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buka001

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Spain up by 2084 cases in one day. They should be passing Italy next week.

The UK up by 676 cases today. Tracking along the same trajectory as Italy at this rate. Which given the reduced testing, I wonder where the numbers are.
 
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semaphore

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