International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 2

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AstroTurf

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R4ziel

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Pitbull said:
No update as of yet. And that is the worrying part... It feels off.
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I know the amount of cases reported next will probably be inaccurate as we have limited tests and capacity but I want it to be posted and preferably be quite a high jump just so that everyone sees it might actually be an issue and take the precautions seriously. Not to spread panic, but to make people more aware. Currently people are saying "We haven't had new cases since day before yesterday, clearly it's under control" which is insanely wrong
 
Unhappy438

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Pitbull said:
O you mean the edit?

I saw it. Just that your original post sounded like you where baffled, with the edit it makes a bit more sense.
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Yeah, definitely not baffled. I think the question is how much higher they are going to be compared to Italy.
 
Pitbull

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R4ziel said:
I know the amount of cases reported next will probably be inaccurate as we have limited tests and capacity but I want it to be posted and preferably be quite a high jump just so that everyone sees it might actually be an issue and take the precautions seriously. Not to spread panic, but to make people more aware. Currently people are saying "We haven't had new cases since day before yesterday, clearly it's under control" which is insanely wrong
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Yea, there is going to be a spike, and a pretty big one at it I suspect. That is what caused the previous delay and the split it into two announcements to make it seem less of a problem. One of two things are going to happen. The positive results per test will increase pretty highly (with less tests done) or a big spike with an increase in tests done. The issue is, we will be able to see if the infection rate increases or not by the amount of tests done vs positive results.

Just my assumption.
 
R4ziel

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Pitbull said:
Yea, there is going to be a spike, and a pretty big one at it I suspect. That is what caused the previous delay and the split it into two announcements to make it seem less of a problem. One of two things are going to happen. The positive results per test will increase pretty highly (with less tests done) or a big spike with an increase in tests done. The issue is, we will be able to see if the infection rate increases or not by the amount of tests done vs positive results.

Just my assumption.
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I suspect you are correct, we will have to correlate between tests done and cases. I also assume that they are trying to curb some of the panic, the virus is not the dangerous part here, the problem will be when they close travel in Gauteng and the likes, there will be riots and chaos all over, this will be the dangerous part
 
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Unhappy438 said:
Yeah, definitely not baffled. I think the question is how much higher they are going to be compared to Italy.
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My guess, and I'm not a statistician: America's population is about 5 times that of Italy. So if America is doing a worse job than Italy is doing, I would expect it to be more than 5 times what Italy has. However, taking everything into account (age of the population in Italy and other variables) I would realistically think that America on a like for like bases should have around 3 times that of Italy. If more, America is failing, if less they are winning.
 
pinball wizard

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Sinbad said:
It's like watching a train smash. You can't drag your eyes away even though it's horrendous.
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I'm saving my bait and my breath for when we get the daily dead numbers. This foreplay of daily infections is just all tease.
 
Archer

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Some updates from the Dutch (more in the link)
And a vote to give healthcare personnel a bonus to thank them for their input was unanimously approved during Wednesday night’s debate on the crisis.
On Wednesday Rutte again stressed that group immunity is a ‘side effect’ of the strategy and the government’s aim is certainly not to ensure as many people as possible are infected.
Rutte said that this (total lockdown) is not an option at the moment
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This graph we see everywhere in various forms makes perfect sense:

1584615309186.png

But there are problems here that nobody is talking about.

Firstly, do we know exactly what the health care system capacity is, especially in SA - in other words, do we know what level of infections we need to stay below that will remain within our health care system capacity? And secondly, what is the long term plan?

In theory, if about 5% will need critical care and we have, say, 5,000 slots for this in a month (an arbitrary thumbsuck), that means that we can't afford more than 100,000 new infections per month. We also know that we'd need more or less 70% of the population to be infected to start getting "herd immunity". In the absence of a vaccine, that means that we would have to keep up the social distancing measures long enough for 70% of 58,000,000 people in SA to be infected, which at a rate of 100,000 per month will take about 34 years.

So the only option is a vaccine, but that could take a year or more, but I don't think that SA, or the world, for that matter, can economically survive more than a month of this.

This article does address this, but suggests that this will be the "new normal":

www.technologyreview.com

We’re not going back to normal

Social distancing is here to stay for much more than a few weeks. It will upend our way of life, in some ways forever.
www.technologyreview.com www.technologyreview.com

But is this the kind of world we want to live in? A totalitarian technology assisted dystopia?
 
blunt

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just went to the post office, think its one of the safest public places to be in during the COVID-19 pandemic, I was the only customer there and the people behind the counter are behind bullet proof glass :)
 
Unhappy438

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Pitbull said:
My guess, and I'm not a statistician: America's population is about 5 times that of Italy. So if America is doing a worse job than Italy is doing, I would expect it to be more than 5 times what Italy has. However, taking everything into account (age of the population in Italy and other variables) I would realistically think that America on a like for like bases should have around 3 times that of Italy. If more, America is failing, if less they are winning.
Click to expand...

The American population is dispersed differently to Italy so its not comparable.
 
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