International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 3

[Geoff.D]

What does vaccine efficacy mean?

Vaccine efficacy measures the percentage reduction of a disease in a clinical trial. Vaccine effectiveness measures how well a vaccine works in the real world.

www.medicalnewstoday.com

Vaccine efficacy is the percentage reduction in a disease in a group of people who received a vaccination in a clinical trial. It differs from vaccine effectiveness, which measures how well a vaccine works when given to people in the community outside of clinical trials.

Very few vaccines are 100% effective. But many routine vaccines have very high levels of effectiveness.

For example, the MMR vaccineTrusted Source is up to 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps, and about 97% effective against rubella.

The annual flu shot has an effectiveness of 40–60%Trusted Source.

Some people may not develop full protection despite receiving a vaccine. Other people are unable to have certain vaccines. This may be because they have an allergy to components in the vaccine or because of other health matters, such as taking immunosuppressant medication.

 

[Geoff.D]

Vismita Gupta-Smith

Kate, after one has been vaccinated, can one still catch COVID-19 and can one also infect others?

Dr. Katherine O'Brien

That's a great question. The clinical trials demonstrated that these vaccines protect people against disease. What we don't know yet from the clinical trials is whether or not the vaccines also protect people from just getting infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and whether or not it protects against transmitting to somebody else.

So, this is a really important part of our understanding about what these vaccines do. Do they only protect against disease or do they also protect against getting infected and being able to transmit to somebody else, even if you're not having any symptoms?

Episode #23 - I am vaccinated, what next?

If you already got your COVID-19 vaccine, are you wondering when the immunity kicks in and how long it lasts? Can you still catch COVID-19 and can you infect others? How long do you need to take precautions after vaccination? WHO’s Dr Kate O’ Brien answers one Science in 5.

www.who.int

So, No one should test Positive from receiving a vaccination, BUT there is NO guarantee that everyone WILL NOT still get infected by the virus and THEN test positive when getting a PCR test.

 

[Gordon_R]

Episode #23 - I am vaccinated, what next?

If you already got your COVID-19 vaccine, are you wondering when the immunity kicks in and how long it lasts? Can you still catch COVID-19 and can you infect others? How long do you need to take precautions after vaccination? WHO’s Dr Kate O’ Brien answers one Science in 5.

www.who.int

So, No one should test Positive from receiving a vaccination, BUT there is NO guarantee that everyone WILL NOT still get infected by the virus and THEN test positive when getting a PCR test.

No vaccine is a guarantee, it's all about probability, and bringing down the numbers. Straw-man arguments...

 

[Temujin]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384846718454349824

 

[Geoff.D]

No vaccine is a guarantee, it's all about probability, and bringing down the numbers. Straw-man arguments...

Whose straw-man arguments? Mine or the "experts" in the quotes?

Maybe you should brush up on what "straw-man arguments" means?

 

[Pegasus]

Even with their population size, this is huge!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384923052853633033

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Even with their population size, this is huge!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384923052853633033

Yeah, and their testing rates are far below that of the developed world (as you'd expect).

It's a new "world record" that will surely be broken tomorrow. Note that even though it's a very small % of their population, all reports I've seen are hospitals are completely overwhelmed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1384930000558862341

 

[flytek]

Massive I tell you absolutely massive.
Only numbers that make any sense are as accurate as possible excess deaths and on an averaged basis. Cases depend on how serious the screening and reporting thereof is. Deaths in South Africa and many others fall way below excess deaths. Only eccess deaths have any hope of showing the true fatalities above normal levels. Not all will be covid related but most will.

 

[Paulsie]

Massive I tell you absolutely massive.
Only numbers that make any sense are as accurate as possible excess deaths and on an averaged basis. Cases depend on how serious the screening and reporting thereof is. Deaths in South Africa and many others fall way below excess deaths. Only eccess deaths have any hope of showing the true fatalities above normal levels. Not all will be covid related but most will.

Huge numbers, but a storm in a teacup all these reactions nonetheless. India is in the middle of their second wave (much bigger that the first as all other countries), while most countries have had it already.

Compared to their size of the population, it is the equivalent of South Africa being on some 690K cases. We are almost 2.5 times as much.

As for South Africa, nobody has yet explained to me why it's magically gone away since early Jan. And please do not say lockdowns.

 

[copacetic]

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/mvicaw

Entertaining but sad.

I'm an attending physician at our Triage Unit. On a friday, an older gentleman (60 + years) came in with his entire family (wife, sister, BIL, 2 newphes and 3 children), none of them with a fask-mask. All had mild COVID symtoms except him, he was saturating 80% with evident shortness of breath. We insisted in doing PCR and a chest CAT-scan looking for COVID but he and his wife refused saying that COVID wasn't real and it was just a bacterial infection.The more we talked with him the more aggitated he got to the point that his face was red. We suggested hospitalizing him to stabilize him and start treatment, but they accused us of exaggerating his symptoms and that we only wanted to hospitalize him so we could steal the liquid in his knees (a stupid rumor that was going around when this whole thing started).

They both cursed at us and said they were going to a better hospital to get antibiotics. Fastfoward 24 hours later on Saturday, I get a call from the hospital next county over telling us that they intubated one of our patients because he went into respiratory failure when he arrived and they had to transfer him here because they don't have the appropiate equipment. We transfer the patient on Sunday only to find out on the CAT-scan he had 90% of lung damage. He passed away on Monday morning.

Just before the family took the body away, I gave the widow the death certificate (that I filled out) and before walking away, she turns around and waves the certificate yelling "See! I told you it wasn't COVID! It says here: "Death due to pulmonary pneumonia due to SARS-CoV-2! I knew it was a bacteria!". I told her: "SARS-CoV-2 is COVID-19, ma'am".

EDIT because everyone's asking what happened afterwards: Not much. She yelled "No, it's SARS! It's a bacteria!" and stormed off. It's actually one of the mildest encourters I've had with a griefing widow.

 

[copacetic]

As for South Africa, nobody has yet explained to me why it's magically gone away since early Jan. And please do not say lockdowns.

Why not? It's an obvious factor, amongst a variety of things to consider, surely?

There is a reason why places like NZ and AU are having the experience they are currently having, and that reason is - for the most part - lockdowns...

 

[flytek]

Waves and seasonal dynamics are also affected by levels of immunity in the human population. As more individuals become immune to a pathogen, its spread slows and eventually stops as the virus runs out of new people to infect. The U.S. is nowhere near what epidemiologists call herd immunity in the general population, however; mathematical modelers suggest at least between 43% and 60% of people would need to be immune to SARS-CoV-2 for that to be the case.

What makes a 'wave' of disease? An epidemiologist explains

There’s no scientific definition for a wave of disease – and no evidence that the original onslaught of coronavirus in the US has receded much at all.

theconversation.com

More than two-thirds of diabetics in the Western Cape's biggest township have Covid-19 antibodies, the provincial government said on Thursday.

Covid-19 antibodies as high as 68% in latest Western Cape study

More than two-thirds of diabetics in the Western Cape's biggest township have Covid-19 antibodies, the provincial government said on Thursday.

www.timeslive.co.za

View attachment 1052477

https://www.samrc.ac.za/reports/report-weekly-deaths-south-africa

This is why our covid problem is mostly over for the moment.

 

[Paulsie]

Why not? It's an obvious factor, amongst a variety of things to consider, surely?

There is a reason why places like NZ and AU are having the experience they are currently having, and that reason is - for the most part - lockdowns...

NZ and AUS are not locked down, they are LOCKED AWAY. Different thing.

 

[copacetic]

NZ and AUS are not locked down, they are LOCKED AWAY. Different thing.

By what mechanism did they eliminate their community spread?

 

[Geoff.D]

NZ and AUS are not locked down, they are LOCKED AWAY. Different thing.

And they will have to stay locked away until the ENTIRE population is vaccinated (not just a theoretical % based on some or other thumb suck number based on an estimated "herd immunity" level) to prevent the virus from running rampant in their countries when they do open the doors again.

And even then the pattern will be the same except maybe, the numbers of really sick and deaths will be lower. The key is those numbers WILL NOT BE ZERO!

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Fact Check-VAERS data does not prove thousands died from receiving COVID-19 vaccines

Updated to correct repeated clause and quotation in paragraph 12.

www.reuters.com

naturally sugar coated to point out there's nothing to see here and reports are not necessarily "confirmed links", yet any way you cut it:

According to the latest data (here), 1,985 U.S. deaths of individuals who died after receiving at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccines have been reported to VAERS. Of these, 1,016 are listed as receiving doses from Moderna, 946 as Pfizer-BioNTech, 16 as Janssen, and seven as “unknown manufacturer.” In total, 1,579, or nearly early 80%, of these individuals were over the age of 65

 

[Paulsie]

Fact Check-VAERS data does not prove thousands died from receiving COVID-19 vaccines

Updated to correct repeated clause and quotation in paragraph 12.

www.reuters.com

naturally sugar coated to point out there's nothing to see here and reports are not necessarily "confirmed links", yet any way you cut it:

On the contrary, it is generally accepted that VAERS is underreported by 99%, simply because it is voluntary.

Underreporting Vaccine Adverse Events

www.bmj.com

 

[dualmeister]

 

[Geoff.D]

On the contrary, it is generally accepted that VAERS is underreported by 99%, simply because it is voluntary.

Underreporting Vaccine Adverse Events

www.bmj.com

And of course, normal deaths due to natural causes is somehow completely impossible after vaccination!

 

[Paulsie]

And of course, normal deaths due to natural causes is somehow completely impossible after vaccination!

Same goes for natural causes with covid infection