International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 3

Status
Not open for further replies.

Paulsie

Executive Member
Joined
Apr 6, 2020
Messages
5,486
That’s now, the 22nd of April, not the 6th of January as you tried to pretend in your previous post.
So what you're basically saying is that the vaccine has absolutely nothing to do with the drop in the UK right??

I'm all for it, just making sure you're saying the same thing.
 

AdrianH

Expert Member
Joined
Feb 27, 2005
Messages
3,222
So what you're basically saying is that the vaccine has absolutely nothing to do with the drop in the UK right??

I'm all for it, just making sure you're saying the same thing.

The UK vaccine rollout started 8 December 2020. They have now the stats to show the Pfizer vaccines which was the first to be administered offer high levels of protection after a single week. With the rollout motoring like it did, it definitely had an impact within a month I would say.

Just because SA followed the same trend though, doesn't mean vaccines are a waste of time and are not needed.

Firstly, the UK strain has been shown to be more deadly than the original strain, up to 64% more deadly, while SA strain is not believe to be more deadly than the original strain.

Secondly, UK has 4 time the number of over 65s than SA which we know are the most vulnerable.

It's safe to assume that without the vaccine, the deaths would have certainly not come down as quickly as they did in the UK. Infact, the there is a few reports showing the effective vaccines have had.

I assume your stand point is that vaccines are not needed, but comparing UK to SA when age groups differ vastly and UK has an more deadly strain to combat, you are effectively comparing apples and oranges.

That said, the proof that vaccines work will be if a 3rd wave hits UK. As long as the strain is a similar one, deaths and hospitalizations should be a lot less compared to 1st and 2nd wave. Of course, I hope there is not a 3rd wave because having people die to prove points of views on a forum, I am not such a ****.



 

AdrianH

Expert Member
Joined
Feb 27, 2005
Messages
3,222
erm, who is this "we"?

seeing as South Africa has not had a single day of even 900 deaths so far:
View attachment 1056995

In all fairness, it's been shown many times and I even posted the weekly excess deaths report once or twice here, that the actual deaths from covid are 2 to 3 times higher what is being stated. By looking at the graphs and data, you can easily see the excess deaths go up dramatically when covid deaths go up. Check the graph below and notice the excess deaths following and out performing the covid deaths

6bc9405c332376b71e2c50f0c641e04b.jpg


Even the SAMRC are stating

Although more data are needed on the underlying causes of death, this observation is strongly supportive that a significant proportion of the current excess mortality being observed in South Africa is likely to be attributable to COVID-19.

In early January in a single week, around 20000 people died, yet only just under 5000 died of Covid according to government. Yeah, I don't believe the government's numbers, I reckon SA easily hit 2000 deaths in a day in January.

 

Dave

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 31, 2008
Messages
76,565
So what you're basically saying is that the vaccine has absolutely nothing to do with the drop in the UK right??

Are you really as stupid as you’re making yourself appear? The vaccine rollout only started mid-December and it was January before it really got into gear.

You showing stats for the first week of January to try and prove something regarding vaccination is both disingenuous and idiotic.
 

Dave

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 31, 2008
Messages
76,565
The UK vaccine rollout started 8 December 2020. They have now the stats to show the Pfizer vaccines which was the first to be administered offer high levels of protection after a single week.

It’s not so much the level of protection at issue, it’s the fact that the first weeks of vaccination were much slower and centred on the over 70’s or over 80’s (I can’t remember the specific age group and can’t be bothered to check) and was mainly care home residents.

His graph showing death rates and trying to pretend that vaccinated UK and unvaccinated SA were almost the same (thereby trying to prove that vaccination is not working) is just stupid as the first week of January wouldn’t be sufficient levels of vaccination to actually change the stats by all that much, a comparison 6 weeks later (or now) would be a more valid comparison (if the current SA infection rates could be believed, which I don’t, like most other third world/developing countries they’re likely under-reporting).
 

Dave

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 31, 2008
Messages
76,565

WARNING FROM EX PFIZER VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL YEADON: SOMETHING VERY, VERY BAD IS HAPPENING

Here is a bit of conspiracy facts for those interested....

Mike Yeadon sounds like a certified nut. He would fit in well with a few MyBB Covid posters...






 

Jake45

Expert Member
Joined
Dec 21, 2014
Messages
2,606
A summary would be nice. Just the highlights.
According to Michael Yeadon ...

The idea that you can be a virus threat without symptoms has been invented.

I am warning you that governments around the world are lying to you in various ways that are easy for you to establish. You have been subjected to propaganda and lies by people who have been very well trained to do that.

If you find one thing that you have been told that is not true why would you believe anything else that they have told you.

Once you have been infected you are immune - it has been studied hundreds of times now, lots of literature has been published.

It is simply not true that the variants that it throws off as it replicates are sufficiently different to represent any threat at all.

If you have been infected you will mostly survive unless you are very close to death anyway and then you are immune, possibly for life.

It is not true that the variants possess any kind of threat. It is not true that you need a topup vaccine. Most of you don't need a vaccine at all. Most of you would be well advised to stay away from vaccines that come with a blood clot risk.

When your government lies to you once or twice we are quite used to politicians telling white lies but when they lie to you about something technical, something that you can check and they do so repeatedly over months and they do it over many elements of the same event, they are not telling the truth and if they are not telling the truth there is something else afoot and I am here today to tell you that there is something very bad happening and that if you don't pay attention you will soon lose any chance to do anything about it.

You can right now take your normal society back tomorrow. You don't need masks, they don't work. Forget lockdowns they never slow transmission which mostly took place in hospitals and care homes. You don't need to be vaccinated by inadequately tested and somewhat dangerous gene based spike protein inducing proteins.

You don't need to be told what to do by corrupt scientists who are apparently advising our government. If you don't do that in the next few weeks it will be over - if we get to a point of a vaccine passport I think that you will have lost the chance to take it back and you will regret it.
 

NarrowBandFtw

Honorary Master
Joined
Feb 1, 2008
Messages
27,727
Yeah, I don't believe the government's numbers
nor do I, I find it quite suspect how our active cases have doggedly stuck to the ~20k-25k zone for over a month now ... what's the probability of new infections matching recoveries + deaths for an extended period?

problem is once you suspect the numbers aren't the truth you need to consider it could be due to incompetence, manipulation or both ... and it can result in understating, overstating or both

if it is mostly incompetence I'd bet the numbers are mostly understated
if it is mostly manipulation I'd bet the numbers are mostly overstated
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
50,982
In all fairness, it's been shown many times and I even posted the weekly excess deaths report once or twice here, that the actual deaths from covid are 2 to 3 times higher what is being stated. By looking at the graphs and data, you can easily see the excess deaths go up dramatically when covid deaths go up. Check the graph below and notice the excess deaths following and out performing the covid deaths

6bc9405c332376b71e2c50f0c641e04b.jpg


Even the SAMRC are stating



In early January in a single week, around 20000 people died, yet only just under 5000 died of Covid according to government. Yeah, I don't believe the government's numbers, I reckon SA easily hit 2000 deaths in a day in January.

'In the context of the emerging COVID-19 pandemic, it has become essential to track the weekly number of deaths that occur. Deaths recorded on the National Population Register are provided to the SAMRC on a weekly basis. These have been scaled up to estimate the actual number of deaths by accounting for the people who are not on the population register and the under-registration of deaths.'
People throw around excess deaths numbers like it's fact, when it's actually estimates.
 

flytek

Expert Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
1,748
Yes they are estimstes and they could contain some non covid deaths like economic stress deaths or suicides etc but considering how far lower reported covid deaths are one has to see excess deaths as a far better indicater than reported deaths or the wildly innacurate 'cases'. Those estimating excess deaths are likely trying to be as scientific and accurate as they can be so that their methadology withstands scrutiny.
 

BBSA

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 11, 2005
Messages
21,905
Scientists at Texas A&M University’s Global Health Research Complex say they’ve detected a new Covid-19 variant that shows signs of a more contagious strain that causes more severe illness and appears to be resistant to antibodies.

The new variant, BV-1, named after its Brazos Valley origin, was found during Texas A&M’s routine coronavirus screening via saliva sample in a young student who had mild cold-like symptoms. The student tested positive for Covid on March 5 and tested positive again on March 25, showing that the new strain may cause a longer infection in younger people. The student’s symptoms resolved by April 2 and a third test on April 9 came back negative.

 

Paulsie

Executive Member
Joined
Apr 6, 2020
Messages
5,486
I assume your stand point is that vaccines are not needed, but comparing UK to SA when age groups differ vastly and UK has an more deadly strain to combat, you are effectively comparing apples and oranges.
I actually don't attack vaccines here in this case believe it or not.
My standpoint is that contributors on your side of the divide always chose the one that works for them - oh look vaccines work (UK), oh look lockdowns work (SA), you must not compare the two (UK vs SA), you must compare the two (Sweden vs Nordic countries), you cannot compare the two (Sweden vs UK).

People on my side of the divide often simply point out the discrepancies and ask for more conversation on the point. We are then shouted down, again using the arguments above.
 

C4Cat

Honorary Master
Joined
Nov 9, 2015
Messages
14,307
oh look vaccines work (UK), oh look lockdowns work (
There was a lockdown in UK too in early January so it seems clear that lockdowns can work. Would have been too early to see the effect of vaccines, imo.
 

Paulsie

Executive Member
Joined
Apr 6, 2020
Messages
5,486
Are you really as stupid as you’re making yourself appear? The vaccine rollout only started mid-December and it was January before it really got into gear.

You showing stats for the first week of January to try and prove something regarding vaccination is both disingenuous and idiotic.
Are YOU really as stupid yourself?? I'm not showing stats for the first week of Jan, I'm showing stats for the whole year, MERELY POINTING OUT that both countries PEAKED at exactly same time and dropped at exactly the same rate.

It is YOU who started focusing on a single point and started defending I don't know what. Vaccines?? Lockdown!??

Actually no, you did not defend anything. You simply attacked my post without putting anything forward.

Edit: as a reply to your next post (which I missed), the graphs I compared are those of cases, not deaths. But then again, whatever suits..
 
Last edited:

Paulsie

Executive Member
Joined
Apr 6, 2020
Messages
5,486
There was a lockdown in UK too in early January so it seems clear that lockdowns can work. Would have been too early to see the effect of vaccines, imo.
So the drop in cases in the UK was due to the effectiveness of lockdown (finally after a year), but the long-term down trend is due to the vaccine yes?

The in SA, the drop is due to lockdowns (finally) and the long term trend is due to under-counting (as per @Dave) yes?

Wtf!!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top