International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 3

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

Did you read the article?

Yes, it was obviously layered in typical careful academic language, however, I would point out that if lockdown worked, we'd expect to see "decisive / strong" evidence that it worked rather than it "might have worked" (but we can't say) conclusion from the authors.

 

[C4Cat]

Yes, it was obviously layered in typical careful academic language, however, I would point out that if lockdown worked, we'd expect to see "decisive / strong" evidence that it worked rather than it "might have worked" (but we can't say) conclusion from the authors.

They were very clear that the lockdowns in Germany were brought in too late to have any real effect.

 

[The_Right_Honourable_Brit]

They were very clear that the lockdowns in Germany were brought in too late to have any real effect.

Where do you see that?

 

[Lupus]

Where do you see that?

The narrative always changes.

 

[noxibox]

The very fact that the infections climb and then drop on their own is enough reason to dismiss the need for those tighter restrictions. I don't know why some people are so desperate to cling to the notion that drastic measures are needed. The proper way to do this is to try some minimal intervention and do it in a way that produces testable results.

They were very clear that the lockdowns in Germany were brought in too late to have any real effect.

Yes, yes, there is always some excuse. It would have worked if we'd started earlier. It would have worked if we'd had harsher measures. It would have worked if people had followed the rules. Never that maybe the measures themselves are pointless or marginally effective at best. It reminds me of the rhetoric of the war on drugs.

 

[C4Cat]

The very fact that the infections climb and then drop on their own is enough reason to dismiss the need for those tighter restrictions. I don't know why some people are so desperate to cling to the notion that drastic measures are needed. The proper way to do this is to try some minimal intervention and do it in a way that produces testable results.


Yes, yes, there is always some excuse. It would have worked if we'd started earlier. It would have worked if we'd had harsher measures. It would have worked if people had followed the rules. Never that maybe the measures themselves are pointless or marginally effective at best. It reminds me of the rhetoric of the war on drugs.

Aside from the fact that the purpose of lockdowns is not to lower cases anyway, but to flatten the curve (in other words, slow down the spreading of the virus, not eliminate it) - I'm just saying what the research showed.

Where do you see that?

Scientists at Munich University found German infection rate was already falling before lockdown was imposed

The study found that on each occasion the R number was already under 1 before the new restrictions came into force, indicating that infections were falling.

The measures taken could have had a positive effect on the course of the infection, but are not solely responsible for the decline,” the study’s authors wrote.

“All that it shows is that the start of lockdown and the fall in infections do not coincide.” Germany went into “lockdown lite”, with restaurants and bars closed but non-essential shops open, on November 2.

Thorsten Lehr, professor of clinical pharmacy at Saarland University, told German television public discussions over impending lockdown measures may have influenced people to change their behaviour and meet others less.

 

[Paulsie]

Aside from the fact that the purpose of lockdowns is not to lower cases anyway, but to flatten the curve (in other words, slow down the spreading of the virus, not eliminate it) - I'm just saying what the research showed.

That, I'm afraid was the narrative only during the very first few weeks of the global pandemic and it was widely accepted as such and even supported by global populace.

Unfortunately it later turned into a tool that was supposed to suppress and/or defeat and/or eliminate this virus (hint - Australia locking down for 1 or 2 cases / nothing to do with flattening). Such narrative was further fuelled by the media, governments AND The Who. And that is when the arguments started and people started to ignore them.

 

[C4Cat]

That, I'm afraid was the narrative only during the very first few weeks of the global pandemic and it was widely accepted as such and even supported by global populace.

Unfortunately it later turned into a tool that was supposed to suppress and/or defeat and/or eliminate this virus (hint - Australia locking down for 1 or 2 cases / nothing to do with flattening). Such narrative was further fuelled by the media, governments AND The Who. And that is when the arguments started and people started to ignore them.

Well if people were expecting lockdowns to to defeat or eliminate the virus then it was never going to work. If that was all that was needed then there would be no need for a vaccine. In South Africa lockdowns have always been imposed with the express purpose of flattening the curve to help the hospitals cope.

 

[C4Cat]

That, I'm afraid was the narrative only during the very first few weeks of the global pandemic and it was widely accepted as such and even supported by global populace.

Unfortunately it later turned into a tool that was supposed to suppress and/or defeat and/or eliminate this virus (hint - Australia locking down for 1 or 2 cases / nothing to do with flattening). Such narrative was further fuelled by the media, governments AND The Who. And that is when the arguments started and people started to ignore them.

Oh look, lockdown didn't eliminate the virus to obviously lockdowns don't work

 

[Paulsie]

View attachment 1083079
View attachment 1083081


Oh look, lockdown didn't eliminate the virus to obviously lockdowns don't work

Interesting how all these "flatten the curve" graphics show a steep up-and-down picture and a flatter, longer one next to it.

In real terms, can you show me ONE actual graph of infections over time that in any way resembles the flatter, longer curve portrayed as the desired outcome??

Since lockdowns work so well??

 

[Paulsie]

View attachment 1083079

 

[C4Cat]

In real terms, can you show me ONE actual graph of infections over time that in any way resembles the flatter, longer curve portrayed as the desired outcome??

Since lockdowns work so well??

The picture is meant to demonstrate the reason for lockdown in image form, it's not meant to be an accurate representation of what infection rates would look like. To see real life graphs would mean comparing the infection rate with lockdown, to the infection rate without lockdown, over the same time period, which is obviously impossible to do. We would also need accurate representation of hospital capacities, since flattening the curve just means keeping numbers under hospital capacity, whatever that is.

We do have some evidence though. We know, for example, that the alcohol sales ban during previous lockdowns led to a significant decrease in the number of trauma cases hospitals had to deal with. That in itself shows that lockdowns can be effective in assisting with increased hospital capacity to deal with covid. We also know our hospitals have coped, though at times during the peaks have been close to overwhelmed, it might not take much to push that number over the threshold. So even if lockdowns aren't slowing the spread or lowering infection numbers, it doesn't mean they are not achieving their primary aim of increasing hospital capacity to cope with the numbers of sick people

 

[C4Cat]

Now compare that graph to the US

 

[Paulsie]

The picture is meant to demonstrate the reason for lockdown in image form, it's not meant to be an accurate representation of what infection rates would look like. To see real life graphs would mean comparing the infection rate with lockdown, to the infection rate without lockdown, over the same time period, which is obviously impossible to do. We would also need accurate representation of hospital capacities, since flattening the curve just means keeping numbers under hospital capacity, whatever that is.

You will find that the shape of the curve is very similar if not identical amongst most countries, irrespective of climate, lockdown levels etc.

I agree that in SA, the lockdown did contribute to and helped with hospitals being able to cope. This I think however was due to alcohol ban (less people killing each other) and ban on movement (less people killing each other on the road).

That however has nothing to do with covid itself.

 

[Geoff.D]

You will find that the shape of the curve is very similar if not identical amongst most countries, irrespective of climate, lockdown levels etc.

I agree that in SA, the lockdown did contribute to and helped with hospitals being able to cope. This I think however was due to alcohol ban (less people killing each other) and ban on movement (less people killing each other on the road).

That however has nothing to do with covid itself.

The beds might have been kept at full, BUT the numbers requiring beds did NOT drop. People just died where they were instead.
LDs did ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for the public in SA.

 

[C4Cat]

The beds might have been kept at full, BUT the numbers requiring beds did NOT drop. People just died where they were instead.
LDs did ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for the public in SA.

How do you know?

 

[C4Cat]

I agree that in SA, the lockdown did contribute to and helped with hospitals being able to cope.

Then they were successful in achieving what they were meant to do

 

[flippakitten]

You will find that the shape of the curve is very similar if not identical amongst most countries, irrespective of climate, lockdown levels etc.

That's simply not true and very easy to demonstrate, the only thing that kind of comparison seems to definitivly show is how effective the vaccine rollout has been:

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems

ourworldindata.org

 

[flippakitten]

hmmm... looking at that graph more, the first round of extremely harsh lockdowns, that curve definetely looks flatter compared to the second wave with the less restrictive lockdowns. Then again, that could be attributed to the change in testing capabilities.

 

[C4Cat]

That's simply not true and very easy to demonstrate, the only thing that kind of comparison seems to definitivly show is how effective the vaccine rollout has been:

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems

ourworldindata.org