International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 3

pinball wizard

Honorary Master
Joined
Feb 9, 2010
Messages
27,239
Geoff, I think you’re out of your depth here, and showing a fair amount of ignorance as to how the app works.




Actually the NHS Test and Trace app doesn’t know who you are or any of your history, it’s the one built on the Apple and Google API’s that work with an anonymised key.

View attachment 1110684

I will hack my bluetooth and make sure it doesn't. Or simply switch it off.
 

Sinbad

Honorary Master
Joined
Jun 5, 2006
Messages
76,990
On its own that 60% number tells us nothing. You'd have to ask what percentage of the group they come from would have ended up in hospital without being vaccinated. If it is more then probably the vaccine lowers the chances of ending up in hospital.
The number is incorrect and has been acknowledged as such by the source.

60 percent are unvaccinated.
 

Rosaudio

First Officer
Joined
Sep 24, 2008
Messages
22,073
E65SJApWQAAdxqZ
 

Dave

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 31, 2008
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57,054

I signed up to read, here is the article

Vaccine doubters’ strange fixation with Israel

Today at 9:51 a.m. EDT

From the start of the worldwide coronavirus vaccination campaign, the anti-vaccine movement and vaccine skeptics picked an unfortunate case study: Israel. The country shot to the lead of the pack with an aggressive vaccination campaign, but its results weren’t as instantaneous as these critics suggested they should have been. Cases in Israel kept rising for a little while! So they pitched Israel as evidence that maybe the vaccines didn’t really work that well.

But then the vaccination effort actually took hold. Israel dropped from a high of around 10,000 new daily cases in January to a seven-day average of as low as 10 last month. It began logging some days with zero deaths in April, and has recorded about 100 confirmed deaths in the last three months. If there is one country that reinforced the efficacy of the vaccines, it became Israel. And if there was one country that epitomized the sloppiness of the anti-vaccine movement, it, too, was Israel.

But old habits apparently die hard. A vaccine skeptic community that often focuses on unverified data, innuendo and false and misleading comparisons is suddenly pointing to Israel again. The reason: The country is suddenly seeing an uptick in cases, and most of them are among vaccinated people.

Over the last week, charts have abounded on social media bearing out this latter fact. A prominent vaccine skeptic who appears often on Fox News went so far as to claim Israel’s data showed something amounting to a “complete vaccine failure on every level.”
A cardiologist on Fox News pointed to Israel’s data while claiming “the delta variant really is not ... protected at all by the vaccines,” and said, “There is no reason right now — no clinical reason to go get vaccinated.” And vaccine skeptics have misleadingly promoted a quote from Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in which he said, “We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” while ignoring that he was specifically comparing the delta variantto others, not making a broad point about vaccines failing.

The reality, as it often is with such claims, is quite different from how it’s being pitched.
While cases are indeed rising significantly in Israel because of the more vaccine-resistant delta variant, that’s from a very low baseline. The country remains at a fraction of its former case numbers. The seven-day average is at about 800 new daily cases, or less than one-tenth of the January peak.


Epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina last week explained this misleading use of data, which is known as a base rate fallacy — or base rate bias in epidemiology:

The more vaccinated a population, the more we’ll hear of the vaccinated getting infected. For example, say there’s a community that’s 100% vaccinated. If there’s transmission, we know breakthrough cases will happen. So, by definition, 100% of outbreak cases will be among the vaccinated. It will just be 100% out of a smaller number.
Cue Israel. They are one of the global leaders in vaccinations; 85% of Israeli adults are vaccinated. So, say we have the following scenario:

...
With an infection rate among the vaccinated of 2% and infection rate of 13% among the unvaccinated, this would give us an efficacy rate of 85%.

The most important numbers to consider, though, are not the overall case rates, but rather the serious cases. And those, too, remain extremely low — even lower than the case rates, relatively speaking.

Israel is averaging about 120 weekly hospital admissions, which is down from a peak of nearly 2,000 in January. So while cases are less than one-tenth of what they were then, hospitalizations are about one-sixteenth. And admissions to the intensive care unit are about one-twentieth, according to data collected by the University of Oxford.

1626984595500.jpeg

All told, Israeli government data show the Pfizer vaccine is indeed significantly less effective at preventing coronavirus cases of the delta variant (64 percent) than it was for previous variants (95 percent). It’s also significantly less effective at preventing symptomatic cases (64 percent vs. 97 percent). But it performs much more similarly when it comes to preventing serious cases and hospitalization (93 percent vs. 97.5 percent).
 

Rosaudio

First Officer
Joined
Sep 24, 2008
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22,073
Latest Israeli data just out .. vaccine 39% effective in preventing transmission and that might even be overestimated depending on how tests are distributed.
Okay and what about the important data, such as efficacy against severe disease?
 

Cage Rattler

Senior Member
Joined
Nov 29, 2005
Messages
516
88% for hospitalization, 91.4% for severe which includes death. Problem is that the these numbers have very little statistical power due to extremely small sample sizes and can change dramatically if single digit changes in either vaxxed or unvaxxed sample. The VE for infection based on much larger sample population. Actually the official figure released last night was already independently calculated two weeks ago as authorities are lagging. Current figure is quite different now too. Btw, official figure assumes approx 50% of recovered cases took a single vaccine dose - that assumption has positive bias on VE due to actual probability of recovered getting infected being significantly lower.
 

Gordon_R

Honorary Master
Joined
Jul 5, 2009
Messages
18,102
Dosing intervals longer than 3 weeks produce optimum vaccine response:
The findings suggest:
- both short and long dosing intervals of the Pfizer vaccine generated strong immune responses overall
- a three-week schedule generated fewer of the neutralising antibodies that can bind the virus and stop it infecting cells than a 10-week interval
- while antibody levels dipped after the first dose, levels of T-cells - a different type of immune cell - remained high
- the longer schedule led to fewer T-cells overall but a higher proportion of a specific type or subset, called helper T-cells, which according to the researchers, supports immune memory
 
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