International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 3

[Sinbad]

 

[Dave]

About time the UK actually reacted on time.

Monitor it and adjust accordingly.

Israel has also announced a ban

Israel also announced it will ban its citizens from travelling to southern Africa – covering the same six countries as well as Mozambique – and barring the entry of foreign travellers from the region.

 

[The Voice]

Rest of that article is sobering


In the past 48 hours, South African scientists reviewed PCR test data from the Gauteng region and discovered the variant appeared to be behind the increase in cases, having risen to account for about 90% of cases in a matter of weeks. At a national level, South Africa’s daily number of infections hit 1,200 on Wednesday, up from 106 earlier in the month.

Which means people have potentially already been travelling while infected with it. Perfect.

 

[Mephisto_Helix]

The idiots mos wanted to give in to all the sa moaning .... we, not fair and now look. Should have just kept the red list as it was.

 

[Lupus]

This rubbish needs to stop. I have a trip booked to go skiing in France at the end of December.

Not gonna happen

 

[Lupus]

They don't know. It's quite different so there's no evidence yet on whether it's more or less transmissible, more or less dangerous, and whether the vaccines are effective. So rather keep it out until you know.

It won't be kept out, eventually it will spread

 

[Lupus]

Which means people have potentially already been travelling while infected with it. Perfect.

It was found in Hong Kong as well of course its been traveled.

 

[vatie]

It was found in Hong Kong as well of course its been traveled.

Not to mention these are only the cases that have been sequenced. We are always going to be behind, when you detect something it means it has already been circulating a while.

 

[Gordon_R]

Not to mention these are only the cases that have been sequenced. We are always going to be behind, when you detect something it means it has already been circulating a while.

Exactly. There are always about ten times the number of asymptomatic cases in circulation, and these mumbers are just the tip of the iceberg.

Having said that, there is no proof (yet) that the new variant is more dangerous, nor that this one will become the dominant strain (here or elsewhere), nor that public health measures will change (masks and vaccines, etc), nor that the pandemic will last longer (there really is no end-point).

 

[vatie]

2400 today, 1900 in Gauteng

With how prevalent Delta was in Gauteng in winter, I was hoping we would have a long quiet period given how many people probably have antibodies. Seems this variant is smashing through those defenses with ease. We all knew this was going to happen at some point but it is surprising how quickly it has happened. It has been, what, 3 months since the big Delta wave ?

Of course there are still too many unknowns with this variant and there is no reason to panic too much. The best case outcome is it is a more transmissible, but far less deadly variant. It may even just be far less deadly purely as a consequence of practically everyone having either had a previous natural infection or vaccination by now. And if that is what happens, ie we have a really large number of cases but very few people landing up in hospital, then perhaps it is not all doom and gloom. If this scenario happens, perhaps more people could be accepting that we have now reached the endemic phase. But perhaps I am just being optimistic.

 

[EvoX]

Exactly. There are always about ten times the number of asymptomatic cases in circulation, and these mumbers are just the tip of the iceberg.

Having said that, there is no proof (yet) that the new variant is more dangerous, nor that this one will become the dominant strain (here or elsewhere), nor that public health measures will change (masks and vaccines, etc), nor that the pandemic will last longer (there really is no end-point).

So they saying the concern is that the Delta variant had 16 mutations, this new variant has 32 mutations.
8 of the 16 mutations of Delta were what made it so dangerous, this new variant has more than 16 of the delta mutations and additional mutations that they haven’t seen before.

 

[Daveogg]

This rubbish needs to stop. I have a trip booked to go skiing in France at the end of December.

Just cancelled Murren, Switzerland, at this rate I will have forgotten how to ski by the time I get back to the alps.

 

[Lupus]

Exactly. There are always about ten times the number of asymptomatic cases in circulation, and these mumbers are just the tip of the iceberg.

Having said that, there is no proof (yet) that the new variant is more dangerous, nor that this one will become the dominant strain (here or elsewhere), nor that public health measures will change (masks and vaccines, etc), nor that the pandemic will last longer (there really is no end-point).

The pandemic is like a wizard, it will last exactly as long as it needs to last... I mean by now the Spanish flu was wrapping up as it had spread through and done it's job. But thanks to the chicken littles running things COVID is going to remain with us for a very long time.

 

[vatie]

So they saying the concern is that the Delta variant had 16 mutations, this new variant has 32 mutations.
8 of the 16 mutations of Delta were what made it so dangerous, this new variant has more than 16 of the delta mutations and additional mutations that they haven’t seen before.

We really have no clue what those mutations mean. Sometimes mutations mean nothing at all, other times they make things worse, other times they make the virus less fit in some way. It is just nature rolling the dice.

 

[Lupus]

We really have no clue what those mutations mean. Sometimes mutations mean nothing at all, other times they make things worse, other times they make the virus less fit in some way. It is just nature rolling the dice.

There is a common misconception that survival of the fittest means the best suited or strongest wins. This is precisely not what it means, it means the best suited for a particular environment wins, generally viruses try to mutate so that they actually don't kill the host, or long enough to propagate.

 

[Gordon_R]

So they saying the concern is that the Delta variant had 16 mutations, this new variant has 32 mutations.
8 of the 16 mutations of Delta were what made it so dangerous, this new variant has more than 16 of the delta mutations and additional mutations that they haven’t seen before.

Not every mutation is 'beneficial' to the virus, nor dangerous. Edit: What @vatie said.

It will take weeks to characterise all of the mutations, and detect what effects they have in cell cultures, let alone what effects they have on humans.

It's a great 'story' for media hype: new, scary, dangerous. After months of 'boring' pandemic, let's set a new agenda...

 

[vatie]

The pandemic is like a wizard, it will last exactly as long as it needs to last... I mean by now the Spanish flu was wrapping up as it had spread through and done it's job. But thanks to the chicken littles running things COVID is going to remain with us for a very long time.

Spanish Flu is still with us today in a much mutated form, it has just become far less deadly, it never truly wrapped up and it could still cause a new pandemic all on its own.

Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Gordon_R]

The pandemic is like a wizard, it will last exactly as long as it needs to last... I mean by now the Spanish flu was wrapping up as it had spread through and done it's job. But thanks to the chicken littles running things COVID is going to remain with us for a very long time.

I don't entirely agree with the first part, but it is kinda ironic: Flatten the curve means that mathematically the pandemic will go on forever. The Law of Unintended Consequences...

 

[Lupus]

I don't entirely agree with the first part, but it is kinda ironic: Flatten the curve means that mathematically the pandemic will go on forever. The Law of Unintended Consequences...

Yup that is the idea I got, if you keep flattening it, doesn't that just mean it will keep on going no dips or peaks.

 

[C4Cat]

The pandemic is like a wizard, it will last exactly as long as it needs to last... I mean by now the Spanish flu was wrapping up as it had spread through and done it's job. But thanks to the chicken littles running things COVID is going to remain with us for a very long time.

Spanish flu killed 50 million people