International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 3

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Gordon_R

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Yup that is the idea I got, if you keep flattening it, doesn't that just mean it will keep on going no dips or peaks.

The idea was that after flattening the curve, a vaccine would come along to save us. That has been half-true: Death rates have dropped, but the pandemic continues. It keeps repeating (just like this thread...)
 

Lupus

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Bad news for touris

Spanish flu killed 50 million people
In 1918 through to 1920 and it's estimated to have killed, cause guess what no one was counting like they are with the COVID. It's the same as the Hong Kong and Asian flus from the 1950s and 1960s estimated to have killed 1 to 4 million people globably, now if they were as anal as they were now, we'd probably have the exact number right? I mean even the Russian Flu of 1977 was estimated to kill 700 000. Notice how it's estimated, as no one actually was counting.
 

Lupus

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The idea was that after flattening the curve, a vaccine would come along to save us. That has been half-true: Death rates have dropped, but the pandemic continues. It keeps repeating (just like this thread...)
Well the vaccines are out, the death rate has dropped, but apparently the countries can't accept that cases will continue to rise. Stop locking the people away, let them get it and let the virus kill itself out.
 

vatie

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Bad news for touris

Spanish flu killed 50 million people
That 50 million number is an estimate, there were no reliable official figures back then. Things are somewhat different today, but reporting in the majority of the developing world is severely lacking. There will be probably be estimates when the dust settles eventually but that is some time away. Spanish flu as a pandemic was from 1918-1922 after which it went endemic, so if the same happens here then we are about halfway right now and then we go endemic. History often repeats, it is no guarantee, but it does give us some idea.
 

C4Cat

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In 1918 through to 1920 and it's estimated to have killed, cause guess what no one was counting like they are with the COVID. It's the same as the Hong Kong and Asian flus from the 1950s and 1960s estimated to have killed 1 to 4 million people globably, now if they were as anal as they were now, we'd probably have the exact number right? I mean even the Russian Flu of 1977 was estimated to kill 700 000. Notice how it's estimated, as no one actually was counting.
Yes, you are right, I should have pointed out that estimates of deaths from Spanish flu range from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million.
 

Lupus

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That 50 million number is an estimate, there were no reliable official figures back then. Things are somewhat different today, but reporting in the majority of the developing world is severely lacking. There will be probably be estimates when the dust settles eventually but that is some time away. Spanish flu as a pandemic was from 1918-1922 after which it went endemic, so if the same happens here then we are about halfway right now and then we go endemic. History often repeats, it is no guarantee, but it does give us some idea.
We're not even halfway, as governments keep locking everything up, very hard for a virus to burn itself out if it has to struggle to infect people, so when it does it mutates to make itself more transmittable.
 

C4Cat

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We're not even halfway, as governments keep locking everything up, very hard for a virus to burn itself out if it has to struggle to infect people, so when it does it mutates to make itself more transmittable.
If only everyone was vaccinated
 

Ivan Leon

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"Is this Number 10 Downing Street? - Put me through immediately to the Prime Minister! I want to know if this new 'Botswana variant' is of sufficient severity for me to have to cancel my Christmas Candlelight Supper with Riparian Entertainments..."

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vatie

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We're not even halfway, as governments keep locking everything up, very hard for a virus to burn itself out if it has to struggle to infect people, so when it does it mutates to make itself more transmittable.
One of my concern with all the lockdowns, besides for the economic impact, is our immune systems are probably also getting quite lazy. We are skipping some flu seasons. We may find that once the dust settles we are going to get hit by quite a rough flu season.
 

Paulsie

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.... generally viruses try to mutate so that they actually don't kill the host, or long enough to propagate.
Which, ironically, lockdowns might have prevented from occurring as they disallowed the mild versions to become the most prevalent ones.
 

Lupus

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One of my concern with all the lockdowns, besides for the economic impact, is our immune systems are probably also getting quite lazy. We are skipping some flu seasons. We may find that once the dust settles we are going to get hit by quite a rough flu season.
There is no flu bro, it's only the COVID it is the alpha and the omega. Don't stress about any other virus, haven't you noticed the world is only focused on one.
 

Lupus

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Which, ironically, lockdowns might have prevented from occurring as they disallowed the mild versions to become the most prevalent ones.
In theory yes it might've, but you'd need to weld people into their homes and stop them spreading, or you could've done the right thing and isolate the vulnerable and weaker ones to prevent spread and allow it to spread across the healthy population to die out.
 
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