International COVID-19 Updates & Discussion 3

[C4Cat]

generally viruses try to mutate so that they actually don't kill the host, or long enough to propagate.

This is incorrect. Viruses don't 'try' to mutate, there is no intention involved. And while it's true that viruses do sometimes mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly, this isn't always the case.

 

[Lupus]

This is incorrect. Viruses don't 'try' to mutate, there is no intention involved. And while it's true that viruses do sometimes mutate to be more transmissible but less deadly, this isn't always the case.

Yes there is no intelligence in the mutation, but they still have a form of survival. Same as we evolved to have appendixes but don't use them and so on.

 

[Paulsie]

In theory yes it might've, but you'd need to weld people into their homes and stop them spreading, or you could've done the right thing and isolate the vulnerable and weaker ones to prevent spread and allow it to spread across the healthy population to die out.

Correction - I meant the other way round. Based on the environment advantage, if healthy people had been allowed to mix fully, it would have been the strain with the biggest advantage (spread but don't kill) that would have prevailed.
Meanwhile, it was the ones that were strong enough to "make the jump" that prevailed.

 

[C4Cat]

Yes there is no intelligence in the mutation, but they still have a form of survival. Same as we evolved to have appendixes but don't use them and so on.

Mutations are completely random, nothing to do with trying to survive. It's just that the random mutations which do survive will replicate and mutations that don't survive, won't

 

[Lupus]

Mutations are completely random, nothing to do with trying to survive. It's just that the random mutations which do survive will replicate and mutations that don't survive, won't

True I guess

 

[C4Cat]

Correction - I meant the other way round. Based on the environment advantage, if healthy people had been allowed to mix fully, it would have been the strain with the biggest advantage (spread but don't kill) that would have prevailed.
Meanwhile, it was the ones that were strong enough to "make the jump" that prevailed.

Yes, that's a possibility but not inevitable. It could still have evolved to be more deadly, especially given the long time period involved between infection and death, which gives the virus plenty of time to spread before the host dies

 

[Paulsie]

Mutations are completely random, nothing to do with trying to survive. It's just that the random mutations which do survive will replicate and mutations that don't survive, won't

The way this was explained to me: you have giraffes with long neck (mild strain) and you have zebras with short necks (severe strain). You also have 90% of food source at height and you have 10% of food source at low level. Without giraffes consciously trying to grow long necks, they just have environmental advantage by simply being the way they are. Their numbers would continue to expand due to food available.
Zebras could survive, but their numbers would be minimal in nature. In time they would get overrun by giraffes.

Now imagine you put in place a glass ceiling (lockdown) that prevents giraffes with their long necks (mild strain) reaching the source of food at height (healthy people). All of a sudden, zebras have advantage and will begin to thrive through no other means, but the change in the environment. They did not consciously decide to mutate, it's the environment that has given them the advantage.

And lastly, yes a severe strain can take hold and wipe everybody out, but this would most likely have already hapenned by now (unless we keep putting up glass Ceilings).

 

[vatie]

Mutations are completely random, nothing to do with trying to survive. It's just that the random mutations which do survive will replicate and mutations that don't survive, won't

Yeah, each time a virus replicates the dice gets rolled and a chance of a replication error occurs. The more replications, the more chance there is for mutation. It is why immunocompromised individuals are the ideal breeding ground for new mutations. It is probably no coincidence that to date most covid mutations have occurred in the developing world where we have a high proportion of immunocompromised individuals.

 

[EvoX]

Why are the mutations replicating in the same denominations as memory cards? 8, 16, 32?

 

[Arzy]

Just cancelled Murren, Switzerland, at this rate I will have forgotten how to ski by the time I get back to the alps.

Not planning on canceling just yet, made sure I have the option on all my bookings though. If we are allowed to go, we're going.

 

[Nuke]

One of my concern with all the lockdowns, besides for the economic impact, is our immune systems are probably also getting quite lazy. We are skipping some flu seasons. We may find that once the dust settles we are going to get hit by quite a rough flu season.

My immune system is fit and gets enough exercise. Going to packed events weekly makes sure it doesn't get lazy. Actually on my way this weekend again, going to see if I can collect the new novel variant for my sticker book. This variant is just in time for my 6 monthly covid virus booster, just to keep my immunity in good condition.

Will report back and post a review on the new variant after testing.

 

[Nanfeishen]

The way this was explained to me: you have giraffes with long neck (mild strain) and you have zebras with short necks (severe strain). You also have 90% of food source at height and you have 10% of food source at low level. Without giraffes consciously trying to grow long necks, they just have environmental advantage by simply being the way they are. Their numbers would continue to expand due to food available.
Zebras could survive, but their numbers would be minimal in nature. In time they would get overrun by giraffes.

Now imagine you put in place a glass ceiling (lockdown) that prevents giraffes with their long necks (mild strain) reaching the source of food at height (healthy people). All of a sudden, zebras have advantage and will begin to thrive through no other means, but the change in the environment. They did not consciously decide to mutate, it's the environment that has given them the advantage.

And lastly, yes a severe strain can take hold and wipe everybody out, but this would most likely have already hapenned by now (unless we keep putting up glass Ceilings).

So basically, man in his hubris labours under the delusion that he can control nature instead of letting it run its course and in so doing creates even bigger problems.

 

[access]

who needs a stupid "vaccine"?!? lol

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

 

[vatie]

So basically, man in his hubris labours under the delusion that he can control nature instead of letting it run its course and in so doing creates even bigger problems.

And yet, the locations where it is mostly being allowed to run its course, ie the developing world is the source of most mutations. First there was Delta in India, now this here in Southern Africa.

 

[Paulsie]

So basically, man in his hubris labours under the delusion that he can control nature instead of letting it run its course and in so doing creates even bigger problems.

Sometimes it can, sometimes it gets lucky

 

[Paulsie]

And yet, the locations where it is mostly being allowed to run its course, ie the developing world is the source of most mutations. First there was Delta in India, now this here in Southern Africa.

Those are the locations they first became prevalent in (through lower restrictions), doesn't mean they originated there

 

[vatie]

Those are the locations they first became prevalent in (through lower restrictions), doesn't mean they originated there

I was mostly responding to the train of thought that by trying to control or supress something you make it worse, because the real world seems to be telling a different story.

Most likely this variant originated somewhere in Africa (including South Africa). Most people movement into our country is from other African nations so if it did originate somewhere else logically that is the most likely source (in the absence of any detection elsewhere, the person in Hong Kong travelled from SA). Of course nobody can prove it with complete certainty, but the amount of people jetting in from the developed world pales into insignificance to the numbers of illegal immigrants coming into our country daily from our neighbours. And the rest of Africa has basically no surveillance, we are the ones who pay for our "crime" of actually having some surveillance. We also know this new variant has not really been detected in great numbers internationally. So everything really points to it having originated somewhere here. And what do we have here in Africa and South Africa ? Very low vaccination rates, very low levels of trying to control or suppress it. So the opposite.

 

[tetrasect]

Looks like a positive air pressure being chanelled between the face and the shield through a filter at the back. Very clever and probably more efficient than anything else

But an absolute plonker if the person wearing it is infected...

 

[Sinbad]

We really have no clue what those mutations mean. Sometimes mutations mean nothing at all, other times they make things worse, other times they make the virus less fit in some way. It is just nature rolling the dice.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1463956686075580421

A good thread on it, including some tweet quotes about the actual mutations and their observed effects

 

[vatie]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1463956686075580421

A good thread on it, including some tweet quotes about the actual mutations and their observed effects

How much of this is a consequence of the additional testing ? We are now including rapid Antigen tests in addition to existing PCR testing. This makes it hard to compare. Not saying it isn't concerning but just thought I would mention that.