Deaths could hit 6,000 a day,’ reported the
newspapers on 17 December. A day later documents for the 99th meeting of Sage were
released which said that, without restrictions over and above ‘Plan B’, deaths would range from 600 to 6,000 a day. A summary of Sage advice, prepared for the Cabinet, gave three models of what could happen next:
- Do nothing (ie, stick with 'Plan B') and face "a minimum peak" of 3,000 hospitalisations a day and 600 to 6,000 deaths a day
- Implement ‘Stage 2’ restrictions (household bubbles, etc) and cut daily deaths to a lower range: 500 to 3,000.
- Implement ‘Stage 1’ restrictions (stay-at-home mandates) and cut deaths even further: to a range of 200 to 2,000 a day
After a long and fractious cabinet debate, the decision was to do nothing and wait for more data. 'Government ignores scientists’ advice,'
fumed the BMJ. 'Staggering and deeply frustrating,'
said Jeremy Farrar, chairman of the Wellcome Trust. But the decision not to act meant that the quality of Sage advice can now be tested, its 'scenarios' compared to actual.