Is Covid-19 just a hype?

[Hamish McPanji]

So I understand that comparing countries are difficult,

But Sweden and the UK had a similar strategy of herd immunity until the UK went for a lockdown.

Yet both of them peaked at around the same time? (I am talking about back calculating the peak day from the deaths).

Doesn’t that open up a few questions?

It opens up a few questions as to your maths, yes

 

[tetrasect]

So I understand that comparing countries are difficult,

But Sweden and the UK had a similar strategy of herd immunity until the UK went for a lockdown.

Yet both of them peaked at around the same time? (I am talking about back calculating the peak day from the deaths).

Doesn’t that open up a few questions?

Again, Sweden DID NOT "peak".

If you do the same exercise for Sweden,

then you end up with April the 8th.

View attachment 829933

Basically the two countries peaked at the exact same time.

If you look at the updated data there were 109 deaths on the 15th and 108 deaths on the 16th of April. Far from a peak.

Please guys, check your sources.

 

[harties]

Is there a point to it? These guys are not known much for understanding numbers much

True there's no point, doubt its not about understanding numbers. It's just ignorance because it doesn't suit their view. Its like talking to an anti-vaxxer. Who would of guessed though, its pretty much the same lot who sit in the camp of anti-vaxxers or/and conspiracy theorists(5G/Gates)

 

[Nicodeamus]

Again, Sweden DID NOT "peak".

The new deaths aren't corrected yet for death yet, you cannot say on what day they occured.

I have data up to April 23 that is sorted, meaning the last 4 day is missing

These are the reported deaths (I agree no peak)


These are the sorted deaths (up to April 22)

 

[tetrasect]

@Nicodeamus

You seem to be confusing a peak in cases with a peak in virus virility or something along those lines.
Just because daily infections are not increasing and in some cases are even decreasing does not mean that the virus has lost it's ability to infect new people.
It means that testing and isolating, wearing masks, social distancing and lockdowns have slowed daily infections.

 

[Nicodeamus]

True there's no point, doubt its not about understanding numbers. It's just ignorance because it doesn't suit their view. Its like talking to an anti-vaxxer. Who would of guessed though, its pretty much the same lot who sit in the camp of anti-vaxxers or/and conspiracy theorists(5G/Gates)

or perhaps we are just in disagreement? You seem to be closed to the discussion.

 

[Nicodeamus]

@Nicodeamus

You seem to be confusing a peak in cases with a peak in virus virility or something along those lines.
Just because daily infections are not increasing and in some cases are even decreasing does not mean that the virus has lost it's ability to infect new people.
It means that testing and isolating, wearing masks, social distancing and lockdowns have slowed daily infections.

I am aware of that, but take into account that we are now in a new season, the new infections won't be that high and it might be for reasons completely different to social distancing.

I won't be surprised if new infections go up after we lift the lock down in certain areas (inevitably it must).

I would just like to clarify my position again, I am not against some measures being taken, I just question whether or not they actually claim to do what we are told they do. In the ideal situation you would take two countries that are completely identical and run parallel experiments. We don't have that, so at the end its difficult to establish cause and effect from any of these.

 

[Hamish McPanji]

For Sweden the highest death rate (all deaths) weeks since the turn of the century recorded in 2020. Also the 3rd and 4th highest recorded in 2020

 

[flippakitten]

another antibody test in Colarado

Mass Antibody Testing in This Rural Colorado County Sheds Light on COVID-19's Prevalence and Lethality

The number of Americans who have been infected by the virus, which seems to be much higher than the official tally suggests, is crucial to understanding how deadly it is.

reason.com

showing more or less the same thing.

What is reason.com and why should I trust it?
That article is clearly twisting the study to fit their narative.

That study say's they've only managed to check 986 of the blood samples so far.
955 were negetive, 8 were positive and 23 had just been infected(maybe, we do not know for certain yet), so far more recent infections without an outcome, will they get sick?
We cannot deduce anything from that study at this point.

One thing is clear and goes against all these anti body studies is if it's been around for so long, why did a place like NY all of a sudden have a huge increase in hospital admissions?

New York Timeline:
1. New York was put in lock down on the 20th of March, Hospital admissions at 625
2. It increases till it flattens
3. Hospital Admissions start dropping again on the 9th of April (13 days after lockdown).

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health

www1.nyc.gov

Take from that what you will, I'm going to wait for all the data before I make a full descision. My current views are based on the UK experience and lock down is required to slow the spread so the hospitals can cope and right now, I don't want to have to go to a hospital (covid19 or car accident or appendecitis or food poisoning etc... ).

The world failed miserably at containment so the next steps are going to be the most important, you can't just open up, people will start dying in the streets at some point as noone can afford to go into a full lock down again and just ignore it. Full hospitals, no where to go, so you don't get treatment, medical system fails and the death rate sky rockets.

That is what history has shown, so you can fluff around as much as you like, do nothing and this becomes a killer.

 

[Nicodeamus]

For Sweden the highest death rate (all deaths) weeks since the turn of the century recorded in 2020. Also the 3rd and 4th highest recorded in 2020

yes and it is also true in New York. It is not yet the case in the UK or France.

 

[flippakitten]

no, I was told that peak infection is 2 weeks after lock down. This is obviously false.

think about this statement again, London peaked 4 days before it went into lock-down. The UK managed to time their lock-down on the data of peak infection (ironically also the day after the first sign of cur-lover happened).

WHAT?
London peaked 4th of April (according), UK went into lockdown 23rd of March...

 

[Hamish McPanji]

True there's no point, doubt its not about understanding numbers. It's just ignorance because it doesn't suit their view. Its like talking to an anti-vaxxer. Who would of guessed though, its pretty much the same lot who sit in the camp of anti-vaxxers or/and conspiracy theorists(5G/Gates)

It's like a deja vu situation that happens repetitively. And the measurement parameters being used to fit the data to the opinion beggar believe at certain points

 

[Nicodeamus]

What is reason.com and why should I trust it?
That article is clearly twisting the study to fit their narative.

That study say's they've only managed to check 986 of the blood samples so far.
955 were negetive, 8 were positive and 23 had just been infected(maybe, we do not know for certain yet), so far more recent infections without an outcome, will they get sick?
We cannot deduce anything from that study at this point.

One thing is clear and goes against all these anti body studies is if it's been around for so long, why did a place like NY all of a sudden have a huge increase in hospital admissions?

New York Timeline:
1. New York was put in lock down on the 20th of March, Hospital admissions at 625
2. It increases till it flattens
3. Hospital Admissions start dropping again on the 9th of April (13 days after lockdown).

COVID-19: Latest Data - NYC Health

www1.nyc.gov

Take from that what you will, I'm going to wait for all the data before I make a full descision. My current views are based on the UK experience and lock down is required to slow the spread so the hospitals can cope and right now, I don't want to have to go to a hospital (covid19 or car accident or appendecitis or food poisoning etc... ).

The world failed miserably at containment so the next steps are going to be the most important, you can't just open up, people will start dying in the streets at some point as noone can afford to go into a full lock down again and just ignore it. Full hospitals, no where to go, so you don't get treatment, medical system fails and the death rate sky rockets.

That is what history has shown, so you can fluff around as much as you like, do nothing and this becomes a killer.

The issue is that most countries failed at protecting the older and vulnerable population (including Sweden).

Most deaths in France and the UK were in old age homes. It makes more sense to me to focus on protecting only them as opposed to locking us all down.

 

[Nicodeamus]

WHAT?
London peaked 4th of April (according), UK went into lockdown 23rd of March...

Peak deaths, not peak infections.

If you back calculate 2 weeks from peak deaths then you end up with March 21. The virus takes 14-21 days to kill.

and as we have seen there was no change in the rate of infections for the first few days before or after the lockdown



I would lose to see an antibody test in London, perhaps the group immunity strategy worked or was working?

 

[flippakitten]

The issue is that most countries failed at protecting the older and vulnerable population (including Sweden).

Most deaths in France and the UK were in old age homes. It makes more sense to me to focus on protecting only them as opposed to locking us all down.

UK isn't counting care home deaths, just deaths in hospitals.
So you can basically project the UK numbers up by about +/-10k

It is a larger proportion of older people by far however it's still effecting the younger age groups.
Also the issue now with the new illness in children that may be linked to Covid19 in UK

At least 12 UK children have needed intensive care due to illness linked to Covid-19

Patients may have new type of toxic shock syndrome, which causes pain and inflammation

www.theguardian.com

Still a very small number but deeply conerning as a parent.

 

[Nicodeamus]

UK isn't counting care home deaths, just deaths in hospitals.
So you can basically project the UK numbers up by about +/-10k

Up to 50% of the additional deaths were in care homes. The point is that these places were not protected by any country, no matter their strategy. My view is that our efforts should have been with them from the start, but again, can you really control the virus from spreading there?

Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: early international evidence

Data from 5 European countries suggest that care home residents have so far accounted for between 42 and 57% of all deaths related to COVID-19

ltccovid.org

It is a larger proportion of older people by far however it's still effecting the younger age groups.
Also the issue now with the new illness in children that may be linked to Covid19 in UK

At least 12 UK children have needed intensive care due to illness linked to Covid-19

Patients may have new type of toxic shock syndrome, which causes pain and inflammation

www.theguardian.com

Still a very small number but deeply concerning as a parent.

how does it compare to children dying from flu or other diseases? I am not a parent, so yes, I don't get the worrying part, but statistically its insignificant.

 

[Hamish McPanji]

WHAT?
London peaked 4th of April (according), UK went into lockdown 23rd of March...

Also, from statistics Sweden on their own figures:

"It's important to clearly state that these are preliminary statistics, and that the death toll especially for the most recent weeks will be revised upward," said statistician Tomas Johansson from Statistics Sweden.

Not might be, but will be

 

[tetrasect]

The new deaths aren't corrected yet for death yet, you cannot say on what day they occured.

I have data up to April 23 that is sorted, meaning the last 4 day is missing

These are the reported deaths (I agree no peak)

View attachment 830157
These are the sorted deaths (up to April 22)

View attachment 830159

You said death in Sweden peaked based on this graph:

Then I explained that the reason the numbers go down at the end is because they have not been updated yet.

As is evidenced by this graph which clearly shows that there was no peak on the 8th of April:

Look at the dates.

These graphs DO NOT represent peaks!

You might as well remove the last 7-10 bars completely because they tell you nothing of value except the amount of cases that have been entered as data so far.

I don't know if you're trolling or need to go back to school but this is a strange mix of entertaining, frustrating and tiring lol

 

[Nicodeamus]

You said death in Sweden peaked based on this graph:

Then I explained that the reason the numbers go down at the end is because they have not been updated yet.

As is evidenced by this graph which clearly shows that there was no peak on the 8th of April:

Look at the dates.

These graphs DO NOT represent peaks!

You might as well remove the last 7-10 bars completely because they tell you nothing of value except the amount of cases that have been entered as data so far.

Thanks, perhaps I didn't get it, but I think that 10 days is stretching it. The update doesn't change much for what happened 2 weeks ago. Last week yes,

I don't know if you're trolling or need to go back to school but this is a strange mix of entertaining, frustrating and tiring lol

again, I disagree with you, but you seem to take it personal.

We won't know any of this until the final analysis and books are written one year from new (Even Sweden's epidemiologists said this).

 

[Jabulani22]

Guess that noburger will be filled with poverty/homelessness/economic recession etc then.