Is Covid-19 just a hype?

[Geoff.D]

Please tell me how we are going to track and tract the millions of Europeans or Americans that are currently infected.
or if South Africa has actually managed to do that given that we have such a low testing capacity?

During the initial stages you can eradicate this like South Korea and New Zealand did, but once the virus is in, it becomes impossible to keep track.

Unfortunately, the entire govt system and most of the media is geared to trying to convince the Population that the govt will "prevent" the population from being infected, and that "they" will eradicate the disease. That is what many people understand by all of this. It does not matter if the govt and the media, later on, try and dispel this myth.

"We" will all get it. What we all hope for is that the infection "load" is low enough for our immune system to cope with it. And in my opinion, that is what the social distancing, wearing of masks and reducing our movements tries to achieve.

It makes NO SENSE at all to collapse the entire country in the process.
That is why for me, the article published about LDs makes so much sense. f you read the article properly, he says he is not out there to prove his statements with facts and measurements, because the information that will help do that is simply not available.
All we can do in the end (until a vaccine is available and effective treatment is found) is to measure if an increase in infections and deaths occurs in whatever area or group you choose. and that is what the most pertinent and most useful analysis around is the one the FT is using.

All the rest of the fruitless attempts at trying to predict is just one monumental waste of time.

IF ONLY the WHO had declared this thing a Pandemic in December last year, AND all countries immediately implemented travel restrictions and quarantining, then there would have been a small chance of containing the disease easier. But even that would have just delayed its spread.

 

[Nicodeamus]

• Miami antibody study in a sample of nearly 1,800 people in mid-April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 between 4.4% and 7.9%, projecting an estimated 165,000 adults already infected in Miami-Dade County. This is a 17-fold higher prevalence than confirmed cases in the area at the time, and has a projected infection fatality rate of 0.2%.

• New York antibody study in a sample of 3,000 people in mid-April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 to be ~21% in NYC, projecting an estimated 1.8 million already infected. This is approximately a 15-fold higher prevalence than confirmed cases in the area at the time. Based on these estimates, the infection fatality rate of novel-coronavirus is ~0.5%. Source: Governor Andrew Cuomo, daily news briefing, April 23, 2020.

• USC antibody study in LA County in a sample of nearly 1,000 people in early April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 between 2.8% and 5.6%, projecting an estimated 221,000-442,000 adults already infected in LA County. This is a 28 to 55-fold higher prevalence than confirmed cases in the area at the time. Based on these estimates, the infection fatality rate of novel-coronavirus is between 0.14% and 0.27%.

• German antibody study near the border of the Netherlands in 500 residents in early April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 to be ~14% with an estimated infection fatality rate of 0.37%.

• Stanford antibody study in Santa Clara County in a sample of 3,330 people in early April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 between 2.49% and 4.16%, projecting an estimated 48,000-81,000 people already infected in Santa Clara County. This is a 50 to 85-fold higher prevalence than confirmed cases in the area at the time. Based on these estimates, the infection fatality rate (IFR) of novel-coronavirus is between 0.12% and 0.2%.

The literature has been updated.

More antibody results are now coming out.

Compilation of evidence on treatment of COVID-19 and infection fatality rates

docs.google.com

Keep in mind that seasonal kills on average 0.2% in the USA (higher in denser areas and lower in less dense areas).

 

[tetrasect]

We do know that the lockdown works. Not just because of common sense and logic, the data backs it up as well.
If everyone had followed the rules there would be zero or close to zero new cases today.

I've posted this before, and it's still relevant:

 

[Lupus]

We do know that the lockdown works. Not just because of common sense and logic, the data backs it up as well.
If everyone had followed the rules there would be zero or close to zero new cases today.

I've posted this before, and it's still relevant:

View attachment 830553

You know that the lockdown isn't magic right? All the people that would've gotten it before the lockdown would only start showing 2 to 14 days after lockdown, also they've admitted themselves there was very little testing done in the first 3 weeks of lockdown.
The biggest clue that this would've more than likely not gone like this is the lack of deaths, 90 is a tiny amount.

 

[Nicodeamus]

We do know that the lockdown works. Not just because of common sense and logic, the data backs it up as well.
If everyone had followed the rules there would be zero or close to zero new cases today.

I've posted this before, and it's still relevant:

View attachment 830553

Again what you're saying is not logically consistent.

Its the argument of A comes before B, therefore A causes B. That is your argument. Anyone with a bit of training in analysis knows that you need to have a control for that.

Also SAs testing capacity is so low that you cannot make any conclusion from our data.


Back to your graph, basically that data shows that there are two types of peaks.

The first one happened before lockdown and the 2nd one after lockdown. Why did we have a 2nd peak of the same size after lockdown?

Break down the data to the locations, Gauteng vs Western Cape or perhaps testing centres etc etc. It will paint a different picture.


do you see the problem?

 

[Geoff.D]

• Miami antibody study in a sample of nearly 1,800 people in mid-April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 between 4.4% and 7.9%, projecting an estimated 165,000 adults already infected in Miami-Dade County. This is a 17-fold higher prevalence than confirmed cases in the area at the time, and has a projected infection fatality rate of 0.2%.

• New York antibody study in a sample of 3,000 people in mid-April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 to be ~21% in NYC, projecting an estimated 1.8 million already infected. This is approximately a 15-fold higher prevalence than confirmed cases in the area at the time. Based on these estimates, the infection fatality rate of novel-coronavirus is ~0.5%. Source: Governor Andrew Cuomo, daily news briefing, April 23, 2020.

• USC antibody study in LA County in a sample of nearly 1,000 people in early April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 between 2.8% and 5.6%, projecting an estimated 221,000-442,000 adults already infected in LA County. This is a 28 to 55-fold higher prevalence than confirmed cases in the area at the time. Based on these estimates, the infection fatality rate of novel-coronavirus is between 0.14% and 0.27%.

• German antibody study near the border of the Netherlands in 500 residents in early April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 to be ~14% with an estimated infection fatality rate of 0.37%.

• Stanford antibody study in Santa Clara County in a sample of 3,330 people in early April showed a population prevalence of COVID-19 between 2.49% and 4.16%, projecting an estimated 48,000-81,000 people already infected in Santa Clara County. This is a 50 to 85-fold higher prevalence than confirmed cases in the area at the time. Based on these estimates, the infection fatality rate (IFR) of novel-coronavirus is between 0.12% and 0.2%.

The literature has been updated.

More antibody results are now coming out.

Compilation of evidence on treatment of COVID-19 and infection fatality rates

docs.google.com

Keep in mind that seasonal kills on average 0.2% in the USA (higher in denser areas and lower in less dense areas).

And even though the studies might NOT be completely perfect for all sorts of technical, mathematical and statistical reasons, the message is pretty clear.

1. The current testing methodologies used in most countries are NOT leading to a reliable estimate of the numbers of people infected.
2. The resultant estimates of fatality rates are just too damn high, causing unreasonable panic.


The current levels of preparedness in the World are pathetic to handle outbreaks of infectious diseases. BUT this does not justify the callous destruction of everything we all rely on just because governments have failed to see to it that public health facilities are are inadequate and inaccessible.

 

[tetrasect]

You know that the lockdown isn't magic right? All the people that would've gotten it before the lockdown would only start showing 2 to 14 days after lockdown, also they've admitted themselves there was very little testing done in the first 3 weeks of lockdown.
The biggest clue that this would've more than likely not gone like this is the lack of deaths, 90 is a tiny amount.

Agreed, the original 21 day lockdown was not long enough to ensure that people who do have the virus are not still infectious, though with the extension there was enough time.

 

[tetrasect]

Again what you're saying is not logically consistent.

Its the argument of A comes before B, therefore A causes B. That is your argument. Anyone with a bit of training in analysis knows that you need to have a control for that.

Also SAs testing capacity is so low that you cannot make any conclusion from our data.


Back to your graph, basically that data shows that there are two types of peaks.

The first one happened before lockdown and the 2nd one after lockdown. Why did we have a 2nd peak of the same size after lockdown?

Break down the data to the locations, Gauteng vs Western Cape or perhaps testing centres etc etc. It will paint a different picture.
View attachment 830557

do you see the problem?

Yes those new numbers are obviously coming from people who are not staying at home and are getting themselves infected ie not following the lockdown rules.

The lockdown works. If people don't follow the lockdown rules then they are not really in lockdown and infections will go up.

 

[Nicodeamus]

Yes those new numbers are obviously coming from people who are not staying at home and are getting themselves infected ie not following the lockdown rules.

The lockdown works. If people don't follow the lockdown rules then they are not really in lockdown and infections will go up.

Maybe they cannot follow the rules as its impractical, perhaps they were asymptomatic and didn't know it (like most people with this virus) or they went to the Supermarket etc, etc, etc.

I would still like to see how we are "enforcing" a lock-down in a township or in densely populated India.

I see from my window how French kids are playing Soccer on a daily basis, even the police is tired of enforcing this thing. In the first week they were all on a power trip asking us for our IDs and attestations etc, now they are just turning a blind eye. These are the practical reason why a lock-down just doesn't make sense in a free society.

In the past we quarantined the sick, now we are quarantining the sick with the healthy. This is unprecedented.

 

[tetrasect]

Maybe they cannot follow the rules as its impractical, perhaps they were asymptomatic and didn't know it (like most people with this virus) or they went to the Supermarket etc, etc, etc.

I would still like to see how we are "enforcing" a lock-down in a township or in densely populated India.

I see from my window how French kids are playing Soccer on a daily basis, even the police is tired of enforcing this thing. In the first week they were all on a power trip asking us for our IDs and attestations etc, now they are just turning a blind eye. These are the practical reason why a lock-down just doesn't make sense in a free society.

In the past we quarantined the sick, now we are quarantining the sick with the healthy. This is unprecedented.

I really don't care what bs reasons people use as an excuse to spread this virus. They are either assholes or idiots. Or both.

 

[Lupus]

I really don't care what bs reasons people use as an excuse to spread this virus. They are either assholes or idiots. Or both.

So how are you getting food?

 

[Jabulani22]

Still waiting for the exponential growth , there's just too much those pumping up the fear can't answer .
Tokyo no LD no crisis no economy in the toilet.

 

[tetrasect]

So how are you getting food?

From the supermarket. I wear a mask and gloves and keep my distance from people. Apparently that's too "impractical" for some.

 

[Nicodeamus]

I really don't care what bs reasons people use as an excuse to spread this virus. They are either assholes or idiots. Or both.

That is very easy saying it in the comfort of your own home, much more difficult if you're living from hand to mouth.

I will ask you again, how exactly do you practice social distancing in a township or in the slums of India? If you've been to these places then you will see how unenforceable it is.

 

[Lupus]

From the supermarket. I wear a mask and gloves and keep my distance from people. Apparently that's too "impractical" for some.

The gloves do absolutely nothing, the mask probably as well. The only thing working for you is keeping your distance. Hopefully you're washing your hands after unpacking.
I've not used mask or gloves and I've been out way to many times thanks to work and than stopping at the shops afterwards, all I do is the same as I would normally do, keep my distance.

 

[Nicodeamus]

How the WHO undermines the investigation into the Swine Flu profiteers.

 

[tetrasect]

The gloves do absolutely nothing, the mask probably as well. The only thing working for you is keeping your distance. Hopefully you're washing your hands after unpacking.
I've not used mask or gloves and I've been out way to many times thanks to work and than stopping at the shops afterwards, all I do is the same as I would normally do, keep my distance.

Of course gloves and masks work. covid doesn't penetrate through plastic gloves and while masks don't protect you 100% they are still a lot better than nothing. Personally I went to builders warehouse before the first case even hit SA and got myself a proper gas mask before they sold out.

Also, wearing a mask protects those around you in case you are contagious.
This is what your breath looks like without a mask:

 

[Lupus]

Of course gloves and masks work. covid doesn't penetrate through plastic gloves and while masks don't protect you 100% they are still a lot better than nothing. Personally I went to builders warehouse before the first case even hit SA and got myself a proper gas mask before they sold out.

Also, wearing a mask also protects those around you in case you are contagious.
This is what your breath looks like without a mask:

How does the gloves work? You know that it doesn't come through your skin right? So touching anything with your gloved hand or normal hand would be the same, just don't touch your face.
The mask will work for you sending to them not the other way around.

 

[Jabulani22]

Of course gloves and masks work. covid doesn't penetrate through plastic gloves and while masks don't protect you 100% they are still a lot better than nothing. Personally I went to builders warehouse before the first case even hit SA and got myself a proper gas mask before they sold out.

Also, wearing a mask protects those around you in case you are contagious.
This is what your breath looks like without a mask:

We get it , she vapes

 

[Nicodeamus]

on Gloves.

"In Germany, a mask requirement was introduced in public transport and in retail outlets. The president of the World Medical Association, Frank Montgomery, has criticized this as „wrong“ and the intended use of scarves and drapes as „ridiculous“. In fact, studies show that the use of masks in everyday life does not bring measurable benefits to healthy and asymptomatic people, which is why the Swiss infectiologist Dr. Vernazza spoke of a „media hype“. Other critics speak of a symbol of „forced, publicly visible obedience“.

The Swiss Propaganda Research is an amazing site. They blew the scam on the Syrian Chemical Weapons and mass censorship.


Here is a video being crowdfunded that aims to expose the WHO.