Is Covid-19 just a hype?

[Jabulani22]

The numbers of deaths will always be smaller than the actual number of deaths because it hasn't been updated yet!

Yet you are saying it's because the cdc revised their figures and that I'm implying a conspiracy?!

Lay down the pineapple!

I don't get the pineapple reference.
Hasn't updated yet so whats recorded is still pretty accurate then , cdc revising down is a non issue ?
Come on stop dodging the probable deaths parts , even 5k out of 60k is a lot of hype wiggle room.

 

[tetrasect]

Would be a shame if someone could plot exponential growth vs time and show how long it would take to infect 8 billion.

If it didn't spread exponentially then each person would only infect one other person or less during the two weeks that they are contagious.

Here's a tip: use google to see if you can easily disprove what you are about to saying before posting it.

 

[Jabulani22]

If it didn't spread exponentially then each person would only infect one other person or less during the two weeks that they are infected.

Here's a tip: use google to see if you can easily disprove what you are about to saying before posting it.

So you just gonna keep dodging the probable deaths.
Plot a graph of exponential infection over time and see how long it should take to infect 8 bn then.

 

[Geoff.D]

One chart to rule them all:

CHART: How Covid-19 fatalities compare with deaths under 'normal' conditions - Kevin Lings - BizNews.com

The total number of Covid-19 deaths have risen to over 210,000 in just four months. How does this compare with deaths under "normal" conditions?

www.biznews.com

This is total registered deaths per week in the UK as per official count from https://www.ons.gov.uk/ which is similar to our StatsSA.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

www.ons.gov.uk

Note that this is death data only up to 17 April 2020 and is also understated as some deaths are registered late.

Would like to see the regular deniers try to debunk this as hype/fake.

Exactly! One thing we can take as being accurate is that a person dies only once, and if that death is recorded as it should be, the daily number of bodies should be guaranteed to be accurate once recorded and logged. The powers at be can split hairs afterwards as to the cause of the deaths but they can't ever change the actual death figures.
Base on that and comparing with similar death rates over a number of years will then show if there is a "spike" which then could be attributed to something like a new virus, regardless of what any other stats say or autopsies carried out.
All the rest of this mathematical masturbation going on is just BS.

 

[tetrasect]

I don't get the pineapple reference.
Hasn't updated yet so whats recorded is still pretty accurate then , cdc revising down is a non issue ?
Come on stop dodging the probable deaths parts , even 5k out of 60k is a lot of hype wiggle room.

You said that the cdc revised their numbers from 60k to 37k. Why are you talking about probable deaths now?

Pineapple as in the pineapple beer/wine/vodka you've been drinking.

 

[Jabulani22]

You said that the cdc revised their numbers from 60k to 37k. Why are you talking about probable deaths now?

Pineapple as in the pineapple beer/wine/vodka you've been drinking.

I said rumored to be revised for now , probable is part of the inflated death tolls.
Seems that you need to lay off the sauce if you can't link the two.

 

[Forum Reader]

Exactly! One thing we can take as being accurate is that a person dies only once, and if that death is recorded as it should be, the daily number of bodies should be guaranteed to be accurate once recorded and logged. The powers at be can split hairs afterwards as to the cause of the deaths but they can't ever change the actual death figures.
Base on that and comparing with similar death rates over a number of years will then show if there is a "spike" which then could be attributed to something like a new virus, regardless of what any other stats say or autopsies carried out.
All the rest of this mathematical masturbation going on is just BS.

Yeah no need to worry about number of tests, etc. Something is killing people and it's not the bogeyman.

Here's the same chart from the previous week (10 April data) with the last 5 years data plotted separately. Shows that the deaths per week us usually very stable each year. You can get one or two thousand variability in deaths per week but not over 10k more (more than double as per 17 April which had over 22k deaths in that week vs about 10k normal average).

 

[borro]

 

[Verde]

One chart to rule them all:

CHART: How Covid-19 fatalities compare with deaths under 'normal' conditions - Kevin Lings - BizNews.com

The total number of Covid-19 deaths have risen to over 210,000 in just four months. How does this compare with deaths under "normal" conditions?

www.biznews.com

This is total registered deaths per week in the UK as per official count from https://www.ons.gov.uk/ which is similar to our StatsSA.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

www.ons.gov.uk

Note that this is death data only up to 17 April 2020 and is also understated as some deaths are registered late.

Would like to see the regular deniers try to debunk this as hype/fake.

Your scary chart is 100% accurate.
Below is another one using the same data.
Yours compares 2020 to the 2015-19 average (the lowest 5 year average on record).
The one below compares 2020 to the worst 3 years since 1993 (from when weekly records are available) to give context.

This chart goes much further back to give some context to the epidemics in the late 90's.

 

[Forum Reader]

Your scary chart is 100% accurate.
Below is another one using the same data.
Yours compares 2020 to the 2015-19 average (the lowest 5 year average on record).
The one below compares 2020 to the worst 3 years since 1993 (from when weekly records are available) to give context.
View attachment 833482
This chart goes much further back to give some context to the epidemics in the late 90's.
View attachment 833492

Good to see the last 27 years also shows a similar pattern. I think it makes most sense to compare to the recent years though as a lot has changed in health care, general hygiene, population size and population distribution by age in 27 years.

Given the above though, it looks like the UK is set to record the highest deaths in a week since they started keeping these stats in 1993. Their worst week each year is almost always the first or second week of January which is their flu season and this surprise spike in April 2020 is set to beat those worst years of flu. The April 24 death data should be out in a couple days an we will know for sure.

 

[tetrasect]

I said rumored to be revised for now , probable is part of the inflated death tolls.
Seems that you need to lay off the sauce if you can't link the two.

It's not "rumored to be revised for now". Someone glanced over the cdc data and thought that the not-updated-yet deaths number was a revised deaths number which it is not. Do you not get that?

I never mentioned anything about "probable is part of the inflated death tolls" so idk what you wan't me to say about it. Ok going back I see you have a pic there saying that 5k covid deaths were not laboratory tested. Please provide a link to the source so I can see if this needs to be debunked or not.

 

[Verde]

Good to see the last 27 years also shows a similar pattern. I think it makes most sense to compare to the recent years though as a lot has changed in health care, general hygiene, population size and population distribution by age in 27 years.

Given the above though, it looks like the UK is set to record the highest deaths in a week since they started keeping these stats in 1993. Their worst week each year is almost always the first or second week of January which is their flu season and this surprise spike in April 2020 is set to beat those worst years of flu. The April 24 death data should be out in a couple days an we will know for sure.

Yes week 17 will be interesting, but the scare mongers should not get too excited, the official numbers dropped in week 17, so excess deaths might also disappoint that crowd.
Week 16 was a record breaker though, in absolute terms since 1993, but not in terms of population size.

Anyhow we will soon complete the month of April, then we can start drawing monthly charts where the data goes back much further.
Then this pandemic can be compared to the big boys like 1969-70.

 

[Forum Reader]

Yes week 17 will be interesting, but the scare mongers should not get too excited, the official numbers dropped in week 17, so excess deaths might also disappoint that crowd.
Week 16 was a record breaker though, in absolute terms since 1993, but not in terms of population size.

Anyhow we will soon complete the month of April, then we can start drawing monthly charts where the data goes back much further.
Then this pandemic can be compared to the big boys like 1969-70.
View attachment 833508

It's possible that there is still some disconnect between what is classified as a Covid-19 death vs a normal death. As it is, the data says that only around half of the actual Covid-19 deaths in each week have been counted as Covid-19 deaths. If all deaths for Week 17 goes up again then we will know there even more of this at play. Though there could be some lag as well in the official death data from ONS vs Covid-19 death data.

Those Covid-19 death counts should be more up to date but we also know they are under-counting by about half. So the only reliable counts right now are those officially registered deaths from all causes.

 

[buka001]

Nice dodge , the lack of evidence to show murderers were tracked to this extreme including the use of helicopter is in fact an admission by these popo that some crimes require more expense , hint its not murder.

But you can try to rationalise , it wont work until you can show that the same attention is paced on murder and exhibited by them on their twitter.
Thank you come again.

You can really discombobulate the discussion with inane ramblings when you post something completely made up.

 

[Temujin]

Yeah no need to worry about number of tests, etc. Something is killing people and it's not the bogeyman.

Here's the same chart from the previous week (10 April data) with the last 5 years data plotted separately. Shows that the deaths per week us usually very stable each year. You can get one or two thousand variability in deaths per week but not over 10k more (more than double as per 17 April which had over 22k deaths in that week vs about 10k normal average).

View attachment 833488

Just a thought on this... I'm thinking what we're going to see is this sort of thing happening soon (in red). Its going to head the other way before leveling off in a few years.(not as sharp a drop as I put here, but you get the idea)

 

[buka001]

Hahaaaaaaaaaaaa , cope harder man .

Edit - evidence of campers being arrested -1
- evidence of murderers arrested under similar circumstance - 0

Where is your evidence of any murderers in Tasmania needing to be arrested by helicopter, and then being ignored?

 

[Forum Reader]

Just a thought on this... I'm thinking what we're going to see is this sort of thing happening soon (in red). Its going to head the other way before leveling off in a few years.(not as sharp a drop as I put here, but you get the idea)
View attachment 833518

Yeah the guy mentions this in the first article I posted. There should be some of this but to what extent is the question. We will only know in several months time.

Two possible counter-arguments are worth considering. The first is that more people than normal are dying in the UK because they can’t easily access health facilities due to the prevalence of Covid-19. There is probably some merit to this argument, but not enough to explain the dramatic spike in deaths.

The second counter-argument is that Covid-19 is merely accelerating the number of deaths. For this argument to have any relevance the number of deaths need to fall well below the five year average once the virus is under control – this seems unlikely but we will continue to monitor the data.

 

[Jabulani22]

It's not "rumored to be revised for now". Someone glanced over the cdc data and thought that the not-updated-yet deaths number was a revised deaths number which it is not. Do you not get that?

I never mentioned anything about "probable is part of the inflated death tolls" so idk what you wan't me to say about it. Ok going back I see you have a pic there saying that 5k covid deaths were not laboratory tested. Please provide a link to the source so I can see if this needs to be debunked or not.

It's on the cdc website or didn't you get that ?

 

[Jabulani22]

Where is your evidence of any murderers in Tasmania needing to be arrested by helicopter, and then being ignored?

I need proof of murder being worse than covid camping ? Lol no.

 

[Jabulani22]

You can really discombobulate the discussion with inane ramblings when you post something completely made up.

If it's inane just disprove it bro.