Is Covid-19 just a hype?

[WollieVerstege]

One can only use the data and try to project it forward and assume that the virus will do what it did elsewhere.

View attachment 834112

What I find interesting is that countries that have an attitude towards risk aversion (i.e. lets shut down and let's not use old drugs, because it isn't randomized) did not come out on top of this.

Data-Driven Innovation Lab

The Data-Driven Innovation Lab advances data science and artificial intelligence to inform, inspire and intelligentize the innovation process.

ddi.sutd.edu.sg

Your attitude in a time of crises cannot be risk aversion. We cannot wait to prove that the definitely have herd immunity before we open up the economy and we cannot wait for a RCT before we use hydroxychloroquine.

The Hongkong Flu was just as bad as this virus, but that was a generation that experienced the World Wars.

The problem is we don't know enough to project what the virus will do. We need about 3 years of data to accurately model the virus.

The purpose of the lockdown was never to stop the virus. The purpose was also never to keep the lockdown in place till we have herd immunity. That is why we are slowling opening up economies now.
It was meant to slow the rate of infection till we can get a hold on the logistics needed to effectively treat it. The lockdowns have to some extent achieved this.

The issue still remains that SA will be one of the first countries to go through winter with this virus. Europe and America is heading into summer and you cannot discount the effect of the seasons on the virus.

 

[Rickster]

Replying to post #1 i also found it strange that Ebola wasnt as blown up as COVID19 and that originated in Africa.

Dont recall hearing much about Ebola.

 

[f22raptor]

Two months later

 

[Verde]

I left out the most important lesson learnt about Covid-19 from Bergamo:
The IFR for under 65's was 0.06% which is in line with the 0.03% for an average Flu season.

They should be at school and at work.

 

[WollieVerstege]

No, the data is in. We have a worst case scenario in Bergamo where more than 60% of the population was infected and where the lockdown and other measures came too late to impact on the virus's spread.
6200 out of a population of 1114000 died (0.56%).
95% were over the age of 65.
The IFR traces the yearly mortality rate above 60 years so a large majority would not be additional fatalities.

Total COVID-19 Mortality in Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Dependence through Time-Series Analysis

We perform a counterfactual time series analysis using two different Data Science methods applied to 2020 mortality data reported from towns in Italy, with data from the previous five years as control. We find an excess mortality that is correlated in time with the COVID-19 reported death rate...

www.medrxiv.org

You do know that it is way to early to predict this? The virus has not yet run its course. This virus is going to run at least one more year without a vaccine. We need at least one winter's data. Further the seasonal effects still need to be factored in.
We need at least 3 years of data to accurately model the virus.
Will the virus turn out to be as bad or worse than the seasonal flu? We dont know, at that is the problem.

 

[Speedster]

Replying to post #1 i also found it strange that Ebola wasnt as blown up as COVID19 and that originated in Africa.

Dont recall hearing much about Ebola.

Ebola was huge in the news, but fortunately it so fatal the patients aren't able to spread it very easily. Unlike the 'rona which is spreading all across the globe at a pretty decent clip.

 

[Verde]

You do know that it is way to early to predict this? The virus has not yet run its course. This virus is going to run at least one more year without a vaccine. We need at least one winter's data. Further the seasonal effects still need to be factored in.
We need at least 3 years of data to accurately model the virus.
Will the virus turn out to be as bad or worse than the seasonal flu? We dont know, at that is the problem.

No we know exactly what to expect. In Bergamo it killed 6000 mostly frail elderly people. An average Flu season kills about 200, so 30 times the norm.
This is in line with some of the worst Flu pandemics we have seen in the last 50 years.
It does not pose a risk to children and working age people.
So we know what to do - protect the vulnerable in care facilities.
Free the rest of us.

 

[pinball wizard]

Ebola was huge in the news, but fortunately it so fatal the patients aren't able to spread it very easily. Unlike the 'rona which is spreading all across the globe at a pretty decent clip.

But, also, covid-19 isn't that deadly, so the virus spreading so fast and so wide isn't really a problem.

 

[Rosaudio]

But, also, covid-19 isn't that deadly, so the virus spreading so fast and so wide isn't really a problem.

Oh really?

 

[pinball wizard]

Oh really?

Yes. Really. My initial comment was that it is not even close to as deadly as the ebola example give, but further thought is as follows:
It is a disease that unfortunately does end up with a number of people dying. I get that that is an emotional issue for a lot of people. However, it is not nearly the doomsday kill em all virus that the media and the overreach of worldwide crackdowns would have you believe.

Also. you don't need to post the number of dead. I have a working internet connection, you know.

 

[Verde]

Oh really?

All that analysis proves is that we are in the middle of a pandemic. That can only be news to the ignorant.

I need an analysis that shows me why we have to destroy our economy this time, when in the past we managed to avoid such madness.

 

[Rosaudio]

Yes. Really. My initial comment was that it is not even close to as deadly as the ebola example give, but further thought is as follows:
It is a disease that unfortunately does end up with a number of people dying. I get that that is an emotional issue for a lot of people. However, it is not nearly the doomsday kill em all virus that the media and the overreach of worldwide crackdowns would have you believe.

Also. you don't need to post the number of dead. I have a working internet connection, you know.

And that's the exact reason why it's so deadly. Viruses wants to multiply, and not kills their carrier. That's why Ebola was not as big an issue, because it was super deadly and carriers always showed symptoms.

This is the perfect virus, it doesn't always show symptoms (when it does it takes a while to lead up to that stage), is very contagious and has a high enough death rate.

We all get that you want your alcohol and your 'freedum', however i'd rather trust those on the front line and working in medical sciences than a person who is clearly bored at home on their computer.

You have a working internet connection, maybe use it to educate yourself a bit.

 

[tetrasect]

28k has you in a panic?
It will exceed 50k for sure, but look at the numbers below and the economic effect:
The last decade was an outlier creating the impression that Influenza like illness was defeated.
The media is publishing graphs like the one above to imply that Covid-19 is an unprecedented health crisis.
In reality all that is unprecedented are the economically ruinous policies we are following at the moment.
View attachment 834056

A few comments on this post
1) UK lockdown started on 23 march, there is no guessing what might have happened with no lockdown
2) The actuals are quite a bit higher than predicted on that graph with no indication that they are following the predicted downward trend.
3) it is way too soon to speak of nations coming off lightly. Sweden is a great example - a week ago everyone was trumpeting their model, now that deaths have started accumulating so have the questions. Policy effectiveness can only be judged months from now.

Seeing similar numbers when comparing a bad flu season to the very beginning of the coronavirus pandemic under global lockdown should be extremely concerning.
UK has got it's R0 down to between 0.5 and 0.75 so the lockdown is definitely working there.
This thing is still a jack-in-the-box, as soon as lockdowns get lifted the R0 will get above 1 and the new cases will rise exponentially again.

Unfortunately here in SA the current R0 is AFAIK not even known (probably due to lackluster testing), so it's impossible to tell where this is going and how much of an impact the lockdown measures are having. Given that we don't even know the R0 yet it would be extremely foolish to lift restrictions at this point (that said they should totally lift nonsense restrictions like the restrictions on the sale of non-essential items).

People saying we should follow Sweden's model of "doing nothing" to save the economy are confused.
Sweden might not be enforcing a lockdown to the same extent as other countries but they are under lockdown nonetheless. They have pretty much the same restrictions as everywhere else except they "asked" their population to follow them instead of threatening arrest. Also, Sweden's GDP is expected to drop 10%, same as the UK and other countries in Europe.

 

[lived666]

And that's the exact reason why it's so deadly. Viruses wants to multiply, and not kills their carrier. That's why Ebola was not as big an issue, because it was super deadly and carriers always showed symptoms.

This is the perfect virus, it doesn't always show symptoms (when it does it takes a while to lead up to that stage), is very contagious and has a high enough death rate.

We all get that you want your alcohol and your 'freedum', however i'd rather trust those on the front line and working in medical sciences than a person who is clearly bored at home on their computer.

You have a working internet connection, maybe use it to educate yourself a bit.

Italy that had the worst infection rate in Europe and the number of deaths of children between the ages of 10 -18 is zero, that is a fig fat 0, and you call this virus deadly - nope.

Let's pop over to USA, Hard hit New York- same age group, 3 dead, all with pre-existing conditions.

This virus is far from deadly.

 

[Rosaudio]

Italy that had the worst infection rate in Europe and the number of deaths of children between the ages of 10 -18 is zero, that is a fig fat 0, and you call this virus deadly - nope.

Let's pop over to USA, Hard hit New York- same age group, 3 dead, all with pre-existing conditions.

This virus is far from deadly.

So what you're saying is that the virus is far from deadly for children aged 10-18?

I would concur.

That doesn't mean the virus is far from deadly.

/facepalm

 

[lived666]

So what you're saying is that the virus is far from deadly for children aged 10-18?

I would concur.

That doesn't mean the virus is far from deadly.

/facepalm

facepalm as much as you want - let's go back to Italy

Total deaths ages 1 - 39, a whopping 62, including sick people with pre-existing conditions, what a deadly virus hey.

Let's go world-wide - all deaths including people with preexisting conditions, 247,000 that's a massive 0.00003% of world population - so deadly huh.

 

[Speedster]

facepalm as much as you want - let's go back to Italy

Total deaths ages 1 - 39, a whopping 62, including sick people with pre-existing conditions, what a deadly virus hey.

Let's go world-wide - all deaths including people with preexisting conditions, 247,000 that's a massive 0.00003% of world population - so deadly huh.

You sound like Donald Trump.

 

[lived666]

You sound like Donald Trump.

Can sound like mickey mouse for all I care, those are the numbers - no children ages 10-19 died in Italy that was hit the hardest, oh woe is us, what a deadly virus.

 

[Speedster]

Can sound like mickey mouse for all I care, those are the numbers - no children ages 10-19 died in Italy that was hit the hardest, oh woe is us, what a deadly virus.

That's all good and well if the entire population is 10-19 years old but, in most countries, it is not.

 

[CataclysmZA]

It does not pose a risk to children and working age people.
So we know what to do - protect the vulnerable in care facilities.

It's a novel coronavirus for which we have no vaccine, few accurate antibody tests, a 60% confidence level for swab tests to find people that are largely asymptomatic, passing on the virus to others before they themselves have symptoms, and killing off roughly 1-2% of infected patients.

We have no idea whether it poses a risk to children and working-age people or not. In the short-term there seems to be no lingering issues. Long-term? No idea.

But, also, covid-19 isn't that deadly, so the virus spreading so fast and so wide isn't really a problem.

This coronavirus is roughly ten times as deadly as the flu (1% mortality compared to 0.1%), and it spreads roughly three times faster.

Imagine if there's immunity but only for six months to a year for most people who catch it. Imagine if the vaccine only covers expected popular strains for that region, but a new strain infects the region and results in an epidemic.

This would be on top of yearly flu outbreaks and it would only add to the chaos of a swine flu outbreak if that were to get out of hand.

Think of what that might look like. Flu deaths in the US were expected to be between 40k and 75k this year. COVID-19 outbreaks, if not caught early, could match that.

And it goes all around the globe in less than a month. One country not managing their outbreak properly puts the entire planet at risk of another global pandemic.

I need an analysis that shows me why we have to destroy our economy this time, when in the past we managed to avoid such madness.

Economic damage could be worse without lockdown and social distancing, study finds

The worst thing for the economy would be not acting at all to prevent disease spread, followed by too short a lockdown, according to research based on US data.

phys.org

The linked paper is 56 pages long and goes through a lot of scenarios including herd immunity.