Is Covid-19 just a hype?

[Rosaudio]

facepalm as much as you want - let's go back to Italy

Total deaths ages 1 - 39, a whopping 62, including sick people with pre-existing conditions, what a deadly virus hey.

Let's go world-wide - all deaths including people with preexisting conditions, 247,000 that's a massive 0.00003% of world population - so deadly huh.

You can cherry-pick your ranges as much as you like, but a 90% increase in weekly deaths (with a lockdown) isn't something to ignore.

 

[Rosaudio]

Also to those claiming that Sweden has been successful in their strategy -

Firstly, things are not the same in Sweden regardless of the decision not to lockdown. Life there is still very different with social distancing measure introduced and shielding of the elderly.

However, lets compare to their neighbours with Deaths/Million population.

Sweden (No lockdown) - 265 deaths / million
Finland (Lockdown) - 42 deaths / million
Norway (Lockdown) - 39 deaths / million
Denmark (Lockdown) - 84 deaths / million

Coronavirus Update (Live): 138,099,447 Cases and 2,974,469 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

What a success.

 

[pinball wizard]

It's a novel coronavirus for which we have no vaccine, few accurate antibody tests, a 60% confidence level for swab tests to find people that are largely asymptomatic, passing on the virus to others before they themselves have symptoms, and killing off roughly 1-2% of infected patients.

We have no idea whether it poses a risk to children and working-age people or not. In the short-term there seems to be no lingering issues. Long-term? No idea.



This coronavirus is roughly ten times as deadly as the flu (1% mortality compared to 0.1%), and it spreads roughly three times faster.

Imagine if there's immunity but only for six months to a year for most people who catch it. Imagine if the vaccine only covers expected popular strains for that region, but a new strain infects the region and results in an epidemic.

This would be on top of yearly flu outbreaks and it would only add to the chaos of a swine flu outbreak if that were to get out of hand.

Think of what that might look like. Flu deaths in the US were expected to be between 40k and 75k this year. COVID-19 outbreaks, if not caught early, could match that.

And it goes all around the globe in less than a month. One country not managing their outbreak properly puts the entire planet at risk of another global pandemic.

Economic damage could be worse without lockdown and social distancing, study finds

The worst thing for the economy would be not acting at all to prevent disease spread, followed by too short a lockdown, according to research based on US data.

phys.org

The linked paper is 56 pages long and goes through a lot of scenarios including herd immunity.

Sounds like a cataclysm.

For every person that posts something like this, you can equally post things that refute it.

Oh, and stop waffling on about different strains and quoting statistics that are open to everyman and his dog's dick interpreting them.

You might even be Ed Young, that doesn't make you right.

 

[Rosaudio]

Sounds like a cataclysm.

For every person that posts something like this, you can equally post things that refute it.

Oh, and stop waffling on about different strains and quoting statistics that are open to everyman and his dog's dick interpreting them.

You might even be Ed Young, that doesn't make you right.

Thanks for your valuable contribution.

 

[Geoff.D]

48,000 deaths was the best case scenario...

New model shows possible coronavirus death rate in South Africa

A team consisting of some of South Africa’s leading healthcare actuaries have developed a new model to assist in understanding the potential impact of Coivd-19 on the South African healthcare system and the mortality rate.

businesstech.co.za

Se where can ordinary concerned citizens get access to the results of this model?

 

[pinball wizard]

Thanks for your valuable contribution.

Blah blah blah. Have you read every post I've made in this thread? I'm not going to entertain some johnny come lately with reposting valid and scientifically validated data that agrees with the covid-19 = hype sentiment.

We can all swing our dicks and quote websites and scientists that support our own ideas, ultimately that's just the same as the SA government banning the sale of car batteries.

 

[Geoff.D]

28k has you in a panic?
It will exceed 50k for sure, but look at the numbers below and the economic effect:
The last decade was an outlier creating the impression that Influenza like illness was defeated.
The media is publishing graphs like the one above to imply that Covid-19 is an unprecedented health crisis.
In reality all that is unprecedented are the economically ruinous policies we are following at the moment.
View attachment 834056

And the motive for using the 2020 population figures as the denominator is?

 

[Rosaudio]

Blah blah blah. Have you read every post I've made in this thread? I'm not going to entertain some johnny come lately with reposting valid and scientifically validated data that agrees with the covid-19 = hype sentiment.

We can all swing our dicks and quote websites and scientists that support our own ideas, ultimately that's just the same as the SA government banning the sale of car batteries.

Thanks again for your valuable contribution.

 

[pinball wizard]

Thanks again for your valuable contribution.

As valuable as yours is, Mr "Ebola and Covid-19" are equally deadly.

 

[Rosaudio]

As valuable as yours is, Mr "Ebola and Covid-19" are equally deadly.

I'd love to see you quote where I said that.

I literally said that Ebola wasn't as big an issue BECAUSE it was so deadly (i.e it killed the carrier before transmitting).

I guess not everyone here can read.

 

[TheJman]

Until such time as we get proper figures being, how many actually have had the virus - it's impossible to actually say for sure - and sadly, we'll never know...

The only real fact that is clear is that it is highly contagious

 

[Speedster]

As valuable as yours is, Mr "Ebola and Covid-19" are equally deadly.

Which is more deadly - Chernobyl ground zero levels of radiation or a gunshot to the head?

 

[lived666]

That's all good and well if the entire population is 10-19 years old but, in most countries, it is not.

You can cherry-pick your ranges as much as you like, but a 90% increase in weekly deaths (with a lockdown) isn't something to ignore.

This virus hits people with one foot in the grave hard and fast, that's why the hospitals get overwhelmed - so yeah, maybe not PC to say but that how it works., occasionally it does some collateral damage but that's how the cookie crumbles. If you have a pre-existing condition or over 70 take care - otherwise, meh, if you are healthy you are probably not going to die.

We can get the numbers from New York that was also hit hard - Deaths for people ages 0 -64 1893 (still not scary numbers) of those 1893 only 84 did not have pre-existing conditions. So basically 84 healthy people die ages 0 -64.

In this country we have millions of unhealthy people, I suppose that's why we are in lockdown - except the lockdown isn't that effective where the most vulnerable are.

 

[Verde]

And the motive for using the 2020 population figures as the denominator is?

It is per 2020 population, like per million etc.
Divide by actual population at time, multiply by 2020 population to adjust for population changes over time.
I could just show it per million or 100000 population to achieve the same (divide by actual population at time, multiply by 1million or 100000). but think it might fly over the heads of most on here.

 

[pinball wizard]

Which is more deadly - Chernobyl ground zero levels of radiation or a gunshot to the head?

Neither of which are accurate comparisons with Covid-19. Or Ebola for that matter.

 

[pinball wizard]

I guess not everyone here can read.

Yeah. I get that from your posts.

 

[Geoff.D]

Seeing similar numbers when comparing a bad flu season to the very beginning of the coronavirus pandemic under global lockdown should be extremely concerning.
UK has got it's R0 down to between 0.5 and 0.75 so the lockdown is definitely working there.
This thing is still a jack-in-the-box, as soon as lockdowns get lifted the R0 will get above 1 and the new cases will rise exponentially again.

Unfortunately here in SA the current R0 is AFAIK not even known (probably due to lackluster testing), so it's impossible to tell where this is going and how much of an impact the lockdown measures are having. Given that we don't even know the R0 yet it would be extremely foolish to lift restrictions at this point (that said they should totally lift nonsense restrictions like the restrictions on the sale of non-essential items).

People saying we should follow Sweden's model of "doing nothing" to save the economy are confused.
Sweden might not be enforcing a lockdown to the same extent as other countries but they are under lockdown nonetheless. They have pretty much the same restrictions as everywhere else except they "asked" their population to follow them instead of threatening arrest. Also, Sweden's GDP is expected to drop 10%, same as the UK and other countries in Europe.

So how do you interpret these figures coming from the "official" SA dashboard?

Coronavirus in South Africa

The Coronavirus tracker visualises the most recent data on Covid 19 infections in South Africa.

mediahack.co.za

 

[Rosaudio]

Yeah. I get that from your posts.

Aww did I hit a nerve?

 

[RedViking]

Keep up the good work students. You are doing exceptionally well convincing each other of the facts. Here at the Medical Institute of Massive Broadband we have never seen such extraordinary talent and display of knowledge.

Each of you remarkable students will receive a Diploma as soon as possible. Unfortunately due to current questionable circumstances the ceremony will only commence end of 2022, or until further notice.

In the mean time the Medical Institute of Massive Broadband would also like to bestow the qualification of Huge Pandemic Googling and Yahoo Conclusions on @Jabulani22. Without his valuable insight into the world of WhatsApp Received Documentation and Buzzademic Articles we will all still be stuck with confirmed and outdated statistics.

Again, we are extremely proud of each and everyone of you and we wish you all the best in your new careers as MIMB graduates.

 

[pinball wizard]

Aww did I hit a nerve?

Surely you jest.