Is Covid-19 just a hype?

[Speedster]

Nope. Don't put words in my mouth.

I'm just a covid-19 has been hyped in the mass media and within governments to justify their consolidation of power believer.
I'm a guy that looks around and says, wait, the hospitals in SA are empty, in 6 weeks, 100-odd people died of the flu, our economy is tanked, the army is loose on the streets and 90 percent of what the shops sell is off limits, must mean that either this virus is way worse than they tell us, in which case their should be bodies in the streets, or it's overblown.

While I fully agree that the current regulations are unnecessary the other reality is that the virus doesn't kill people instantly, it takes two to three weeks to do so. We went into lockdown pretty early, so the transmission of the disease has been retarded for a while. Let our foot off the break (which needs to be done at some stage) will no doubt result in increased incidence, followed by increased death. The question as to what is acceptable death is I guess a moral one, which we might all answer differently. For some one avoidable death is one too many, while others may be willing to accept tens of thousands.

So, if you''re saying "hype" in that it induced hysteria / panic I agree. If you say "hype" because people won't die, I disagree.

 

[pinball wizard]

If you say "hype" because people won't die, I disagree.

I have never said anything of the sort on this forum. Or in real life I think.

The solution far outweighs the threat in terms of it's detriment to society is what I have said throughout.

 

[Speedster]

I have never said anything of the sort on this forum. Or in real life I think.

The solution far outweighs the threat in terms of it's detriment to society is what I have said throughout.

Some very clever people would disagree

New research from the University of Cambridge suggests that there is no absolute trade-off between the economy and human health – and that the price of inaction could be twice as high as that of a 'structured lockdown'.

Economic damage could be worse without lockdown and social distancing – study

The worst thing for the economy would be not acting at all to prevent disease spread, followed by too short a lockdown, according to research based on US data.

www.cam.ac.uk

 

[pinball wizard]

Some very clever people would disagree

Economic damage could be worse without lockdown and social distancing – study

The worst thing for the economy would be not acting at all to prevent disease spread, followed by too short a lockdown, according to research based on US data.

www.cam.ac.uk

Let them disagree all they want.

The developed economies of the world can much better withstand a lockdown of the nature we are experiencing in SA.

The mantra of those in the USA is "you can cure broke, you can't cure dead". That doesn't work in SA as we are driving millions into abject poverty (which is light years away from "broke") with the overreach of the crackdown. The problem with all the smartypants looking at statistical models of the disease in isolation is that they can't see the reality of literal life on the streets and that the solution that works in Denmark probably wont work in South Africa.

 

[Speedster]

Let them disagree all they want.

The developed economies of the world can much better withstand a lockdown of the nature we are experiencing in SA.

The mantra of those in the USA is "you can cure broke, you can't cure dead". That doesn't work in SA as we are driving millions into abject poverty (which is light years away from "broke") with the overreach of the crackdown. The problem with all the smartypants looking at statistical models of the disease in isolation is that they can't see the reality of literal life on the streets and that the solution that works in Denmark probably wont work in South Africa.

How would you cure suggest we cure dead in South Africa?

 

[RaptorSA]

Let them disagree all they want.

The developed economies of the world can much better withstand a lockdown of the nature we are experiencing in SA.

The mantra of those in the USA is "you can cure broke, you can't cure dead". That doesn't work in SA as we are driving millions into abject poverty (which is light years away from "broke") with the overreach of the crackdown. The problem with all the smartypants looking at statistical models of the disease in isolation is that they can't see the reality of literal life on the streets and that the solution that works in Denmark probably wont work in South Africa.

I'll just add this:
Our entire modern civilisation has been fundamentally built on a supply chain structure and has been running like that for decades as most of the population has been rapidly moving into cities and urban areas. Even the depression in the early 1900's was a f**up and we're way past the type of dependence we had on "the system" back then.

The assumption right now is that the human resources are still there so if we shut it down and reboot eventually, it'll be mostly business as usual... I don't trust anyone who just assumes that to be the case, this is nothing but experimental at this stage and it's just too complex to believe anything one way or the other.

 

[Nicodeamus]

 

[RaptorSA]

Thanks, isn't that the video that's been banned over and over again by our tech overlords at youtube?

 

[pinball wizard]

How would you cure suggest we cure dead in South Africa?

Who said anything about that?

I'm suggesting that there's a way to not drive millions into irrevocable poverty in SA. The deaths that come about from that will be far greater than the deaths from the sniffles and people will continue to die from poverty and starvation for generations - or at least for decades after this flu-hype is forgotten.

 

[Nicodeamus]

Thanks, isn't that the video that's been banned over and over again by our tech overlords at youtube?

no its a new interview by Journeyman. The doctors are addressing the criticism.

They also explain why constantly washing our hands and staying inside is harming our immune system.

 

[Superman-7]

How I feel about the no-maskers:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1257105074205196294

 

[Rosaudio]

They call COVID-19 a DNA virus... christ.. you'd think they would put a little effort into this.

I suppose it appeals to the sheep who know nothing about epidemiology.

 

[Nicodeamus]

They call COVID-19 a DNA virus... christ.. you'd think they would put a little effort into this.

I suppose it appeals to the sheep who know nothing about epidemiology.

They referenced actual epidemiologists in the video.

It seems to me that every opinion that disagrees with you is "the sheep".

You pick up one line that you don't like "they said that" and therefore assume that there is no substance in their argument. Its silly and childish.

 

[tetrasect]

Se where can ordinary concerned citizens get access to the results of this model?

Apparently it's still under review and will be released soon.

So how do you interpret these figures coming from the "official" SA dashboard?

Coronavirus in South Africa

The Coronavirus tracker visualises the most recent data on Covid 19 infections in South Africa.

mediahack.co.za

View attachment 834224

Looking at those graphs tells me the R0 is definitely above 1.

What's also worrying is that the number of tests needed to find a positive case has gone down from 51 at the beginning if April to 34 at the beginning of May, while at the same time the amount of tests done per day have gone up from 4000 at the beginning if April to 12800 at the beginning of May.
That means we are falling further behind as far as testing and tracking goes.

 

[Speedster]

Apparently it's still under review and will be released soon.



Looking at those graphs tells me the R0 is definitely above 1.

What's also worrying is that the number of tests needed to find a positive case has gone down from 51 at the beginning if April to 34 at the beginning of May, while at the same time the amount of tests done per day have gone up from 4000 at the beginning if April to 12800 at the beginning of May.
That means we are falling further behind as far as testing and tracking goes.

An alternative interpretation is that the lockdown has significantly slowed transmission. Also, at the start they were more selective in testing, so that there was a higher probability of finding positives among the tested group. The wider testing since would explain the decline in positive rates.

 

[tetrasect]

An alternative interpretation is that the lockdown has significantly slowed transmission. Also, at the start they were more selective in testing, so that there was a higher probability of finding positives among the tested group. The wider testing since would explain the decline in positive rates.

No, they are finding more positives per test now than before. That's why it's concerning. The virus is spreading at a higher rate than our testing is increasing.

 

[buka001]

Let them disagree all they want.

The developed economies of the world can much better withstand a lockdown of the nature we are experiencing in SA.

The mantra of those in the USA is "you can cure broke, you can't cure dead". That doesn't work in SA as we are driving millions into abject poverty (which is light years away from "broke") with the overreach of the crackdown. The problem with all the smartypants looking at statistical models of the disease in isolation is that they can't see the reality of literal life on the streets and that the solution that works in Denmark probably wont work in South Africa.

How much analysis have you put into assessing the prevalence of TB and AIDS in SA and how these high risk conditions would affect the incidence and severity of the virus in South Africa?

What studies have you made analysing the state of health care in SA and how it could respond to a massive outbreak?

 

[Rosaudio]

They referenced actual epidemiologists in the video.

It seems to me that every opinion that disagrees with you is "the sheep".

You pick up one line that you don't like "they said that" and therefore assume that there is no substance in their argument. Its silly and childish.

It's a pretty alarming line to mess up on, if you dont know the difference between a DNA virus and an RNA virus.

Also it's not just me, but the American College of Emergency Physicians and American Academy of Emergency Medicine.

ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are...

www.acep.org

I don't think i'm being unreasonable in finding it completely stupid to lean towards the opinions of two unknown EPs who are more interested in the media attention they are bringing their failing businesses.

We already know your opinion towards lockdowns/herd immunity so that explains why you would post non-peer reviewed opinions.

 

[pinball wizard]

How much analysis have you put into ...

As much as you I would think.

 

[Nicodeamus]

It's a pretty alarming line to mess up on, if you dont know the difference between a DNA virus and an RNA virus.

Also it's not just me, but the American College of Emergency Physicians and American Academy of Emergency Medicine.

ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation

The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are...

www.acep.org

I don't think i'm being unreasonable in finding it completely stupid to lean towards the opinions of two unknown EPs who are more interested in the media attention they are bringing their failing businesses.

We already know your opinion towards lockdowns/herd immunity so that explains why you would post non-peer reviewed opinions.

Thats your view man, nothing that I can really add to that. Good luck I guess.