Is it time to get out of South Africa?

[saturnz]

Maybe the Delta Motor Corporation of South Africa Opel Monza 160i GSi Car of the Year 1991 market is really down, and that's why millionaires are leaving in droves?

you are actually slower than the Delta Motor Corporation of South Africa Opel Monza 160i GSi Car of the Year 1991

 

[Zulani]

you are actually slower than the Delta Motor Corporation of South Africa Opel Monza 160i GSi Car of the Year 1991

Well that's hardly surprising, now is it? It was Car of the Year 1991 after all.

 

[access]

there are places that offer permanent residence if you just buy a house there, like Mauritius and Spain just off the top of my head..

this skilled labor leaving and being replaced argument. if the better skills leave and gets replaced with the lesser, the entity buying the skills set loses, if the entity does not receive the required skills it must close down.

or a better example.

A can manage 5 ppl, he got the job over B

A leaves, B gets the job, sucks at managing 5 ppl.

company loses money closes doors

 

[cguy]

South African Reserve Bank statistics, you can do a search on their website

According to the SARB website, there were negative growth years in the last 20, which contradicts what you said. Also, it shows recent positive growth only in Rands, but given the devaluation of the currency, the last few years have actually seen consistently negative growth.

 

[saturnz]

According to the SARB website, there were negative growth years in the last 20, which contradicts what you said. Also, it shows recent positive growth only in Rands, but given the devaluation of the currency, the last few years have actually seen consistently negative growth.

this is what I am looking at, the 2009 blip is obvious to all, but there are no other periods of negative growth in the last 20 years

you can't measure growth in dollar terms either since the dollar value moves more as a result of financial flows than any real flows

 

[backstreetboy]

there are places that offer permanent residence if you just buy a house there, like Mauritius and Spain just off the top of my head..

Thanks going to spend my money on lotto tickets from now on...

 

[cguy]

this is what I am looking at, the 2009 blip is obvious to all, but there are no other periods of negative growth in the last 20 years

you can't measure growth in dollar terms either since the dollar value moves more as a result of financial flows than any real flows

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By that metric, Zimbabwe had phenomenal positive growth . If you're willing to chalk up the last five years of "Rand based GDP growth" as actual growth, you are deluding yourself.

 

[saturnz]

By that metric, Zimbabwe had phenomenal positive growth . If you're willing to chalk up the last five years of "Rand based GDP growth" as actual growth, you are deluding yourself.

that's the metric most use, and I see you ignore the base effects

the point is I was not contradicting myself

 

[cguy]

that's the metric most use, and I see you ignore the base effects

the point is I was not contradicting myself

Part of your point was that despite the brain drain, the country has experienced entirely positive growth over the last 20 years. If the clarified form of this, is that the country's GDP when measured in a significantly devaluing currency has increased year over year, then yes, I agree that you haven't contradicted yourself here - however, I think it is a very strange point to make, since it doesn't really say anything about the positive health of the country, which you seem to think it does (your usage of the word "despite").

The only time a country can claim that an increase in GDP in local currency is a good thing, is when the local currency is stable relative to the major world currencies, or if the increase is large enough to overcompensate for the devaluation.

 

[saturnz]

Part of your point was that despite the brain drain, the country has experienced entirely positive growth over the last 20 years. If the clarified form of this, is that the country's GDP when measured in a significantly devaluing currency has increased year over year, then yes, I agree that you haven't contradicted yourself here - however, I think it is a very strange point to make, since it doesn't really say anything about the positive health of the country, which you seem to think it does (your usage of the word "despite").

The only time a country can claim that an increase in GDP in local currency is a good thing, is when the local currency is stable relative to the major world currencies.

but the dollar has appreciated as a result of financial flows, not because of strength in the US economy, and as a result your measurement is also flawed, probably more so

my measurement is the measurement generally used and accepted, our inflation rate has also been relatively stable which suggests the measurement is not over inflated.

no country expresses their growth in US dollar terms, no country that I'm aware of

 

[Bobbin]

Unfortunately I don't have any overseas ancestry to rely on and I've got no overseas opportunities at the moment. So I'm kind of stuck here unless I can figure out a way. I am however keeping a close eye on the upcoming elections, despite it being local elections I believe it would be a telling sign of any possible turnover for SA based on the general attitudes towards ANC governance. I firmly believe ANC are no longer fit to rule and I'm also not quite sure if they ever were but that's a long debate...

Anyway, being a minority (white) under a democracy (Which means majority rules) plus having laws in favor of the majority (Double whammy) can only mean that my standard of living will either go down or I will have to specialize or take risks to compete. This is okay given I'm 31 y/o but I look at my parents who are now both unemployed at the moment. Being over 50 y/o not only makes them less employable but furthermore they have AA and BBE to compete with - So in a word they're a bit ****ed. So I'm wondering how this bodes for my long term future here as well. It would seem whites have to remain highly skilled to be competitive, and they do so which is why I think whites retain their standard of living for the most part. But I feel there is a turning or breaking point somewhere in this little equation. Without privilege or what's left of it I guess we'd be nothing here.

Economically speaking South Africa has nothing to be proud of either. And it's been a constant downhill trend since I can remember. Like being eaten alive slowly. My girlfriend has dreamed of going overseas for vacation but has been saving and saving while the currency continues to devalue. Looks like it may not happen and I won't be joining either if it does. As for the general media, all I am hearing is how whites must give back land and wealth. Constantly. And only whites can be racist. And colonialism this and that. And the DA is a white party and Mmusi is a puppet... And sport quotas and SABC local only content and on and on... So I don't feel welcome at all. Though I also acknowledge that it isn't one sided and there are many whites spewing rubbish as well.

Furthermore it would appear that South Africa is leaning heavily towards socialism and a welfare state. This in my view does not bode well either. We do not have enough wealth in SA (Black or white owned) to sustain this trend and we certainly are doing very little to attract investment. I sometimes wonder how we even do "okay" given the circumstances... Especially considering the apparent level of corruption which in itself is sickening.

Anyway with all that negativity, and I could go on (i.e. the usual education, crime and infrastructure rant), I can only hope I'm wrong and things will turn around. Like I said, I have no opportunity elsewhere. I just hope I won't live out my days here as an unrepresented minority on the path of total devaluation.

Fortunately I have no desire to have kids as this would add additional strain. Why would I consider raising them given the current goings on at the schools and universities? It wouldn't make any sense to me.

So to those who wish to move overseas, all the best to ya and I wish I could join and give it a shot Honestly I'd do it if I could with all the best wishes and intentions for those staying behind. If I were called a coward for that I'd just wave and smile and wish the best for those staying behind. No hard feelings at all.

 

[Dave]

Unfortunately I don't have any overseas ancestry to rely on and I've got no overseas opportunities at the moment. So I'm kind of stuck here unless I can figure out a way. I am however keeping a close eye on the upcoming elections, despite it being local elections I believe it would be a telling sign of any possible turnover for SA based on the general attitudes towards ANC governance. I firmly believe ANC are no longer fit to rule and I'm also not quite sure if they ever were but that's a long debate...

Careful what you wish for, it's a fairly common thing in Africa for ruling parties to go towards dictatorship when an opposition starts to threaten them.

You only have to look at Zim as an example...

 

[Brawler]

Just got home to a ransacked apartment

Considering my earlier post about being keen to emigrate next year - I think I need to expedite that process

 

[freddster]

Just got home to a ransacked apartment

Considering my earlier post about being keen to emigrate next year - I think I need to expedite that process

Sorry to hear. exactly. there is just no crime prevention. NOTHING!!!

 

[cguy]

but the dollar has appreciated as a result of financial flows, not because of strength in the US economy, and as a result your measurement is also flawed, probably more so

my measurement is the measurement generally used and accepted, our inflation rate has also been relatively stable which suggests the measurement is not over inflated.

no country expresses their growth in US dollar terms, no country that I'm aware of

If you wish to believe that the SA GDP dropping from $403.4B in 2011 to $323.8B in 2015 is a positive thing because the Rand GDP grew, that's entirely your prerogative - wasting more time on this is daft.

 

[saturnz]

If you wish to believe that the SA GDP dropping from $403.4B in 2011 to $323.8B in 2015 is a positive thing because the Rand GDP grew, that's entirely your prerogative - wasting more time on this is daft.

you are the one that decided to waste time on it despite me showing you where I got the data from, data which I have to repeat is generally accepted

as I said, I'm not aware of any country that measures their own GDP in US currency

 

[Johnatan56]

you are the one that decided to waste time on it despite me showing you where I got the data from, data which I have to repeat is generally accepted

as I said, I'm not aware of any country that measures their own GDP in US currency

It's a global economy, no one cares what currency a country measures its GDP in, you will be compared with every other currency.
The US dollar is the most traded currency in the world and has the largest GDP, it is natural to compare it to the US dollar in order to compensate for depreciation etc. especially as we import a lot.

Btw, the US measures their GDP in dollars, I think Zim does as well, not sure with Zim.

 

[cguy]

you are the one that decided to waste time on it despite me showing you where I got the data from, data which I have to repeat is generally accepted

as I said, I'm not aware of any country that measures their own GDP in US currency

If you go to any list of GDP's or any comparison of GDP's they're all normalized to a single currency (usually USD, but can be anything). If you look up SA's GDP on the World Bank site or Wikipedia, it's in USD. It's the only way they can be meaningfully quantified, otherwise you land up in a situation where Zim looked like their economy is growing 10x year-on-year - I wonder if they pushed this as a positive sign?

I'm not disagreeing with your data, but the way you are interpreting it. Positive GDP growth is only good when your country's GDP isn't shrinking when normalized to a stable currency.

 

[saturnz]

If you go to any list of GDP's or any comparison of GDP's they're all normalized to a single currency (usually USD, but can be anything). If you look up SA's GDP on the World Bank site or Wikipedia, it's in USD. It's the only way they can be meaningfully quantified, otherwise you land up in a situation where Zim looked like their economy is growing 10x year-on-year - I wonder if they pushed this as a positive sign?

I'm not disagreeing with your data, but the way you are interpreting it. Positive GDP growth is only good when your country's GDP isn't shrinking when normalized to a stable currency.

you do understand that the dollar strength in the past few years is mostly due to financial flows, and as a result even though a country may be growing, it may seem to be doing badly because of dollar strength?

 

[cguy]

you do understand that the dollar strength in the past few years is mostly due to financial flows, and as a result even though a country may be growing, it may seem to be doing badly because of dollar strength?

~300B to ~245B in Pounds. ~360B to ~290B in Euros. The only currency that would make any difference to this result is one that has devalued more than the Rand. UK's GDP has gone up in dollars, most of the EU has gone slightly down. This is hardly about movement in the USD, but rather the massive devaluation of the rand against just about everything else.