Jailed Putin critic Alexei Navalny has died - prison service

buchanan8 said:
That doesn't seem way off from what Minsk 1 and 2 was supposed to achieve. Or the framework purportedly agreed in Turkey in April 2022. Then Boris Johnson was sent by the neocons to blow that out the water.
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Humor me or chatgpt! I'm finding it great for a bird's eye overview.

There have been several historical attempts to resolve aspects of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, referencing the Minsk agreements and a purported framework discussed in Turkey in April 2022. Let's break down these references to provide context:

Minsk Agreements (Minsk I and Minsk II)

Minsk I: Initiated in September 2014 after the start of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, the Minsk Protocol was an attempt to halt the fighting in the Donbas region. It included provisions for a ceasefire, the release of hostages, and the establishment of a security zone.

Minsk II: In response to the failure of the Minsk I agreement to stop the fighting, the Minsk II agreement was brokered in February 2015 with the involvement of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany (the Normandy Format). Minsk II outlined a more detailed plan for a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, and constitutional reforms in Ukraine to decentralize power to the regions, including Donetsk and Luhansk, granting them special status.

Both Minsk agreements aimed to de-escalate the conflict and provide a framework for political resolution, but they have largely failed to achieve lasting peace. Implementation has been stalled due to disagreements over the sequence of steps, ongoing hostilities, and differing interpretations of the agreements' provisions.

Framework Agreed in Turkey (April 2022)

In the context of the escalated conflict following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there were several rounds of negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian representatives, including talks in Turkey. Reports from these discussions suggested tentative agreements on certain points, such as Ukraine's neutrality and security guarantees from various countries, but these did not lead to a significant breakthrough or lasting ceasefire.

Boris Johnson's Alleged Role
The claim regarding former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson being "sent by the neocons to blow that out the water" refers to allegations that Western figures, including Johnson, influenced the course of negotiations and Ukraine's stance in them. In April 2022, Boris Johnson visited Kyiv, showing strong UK support for Ukraine. Critics argue that the involvement of certain Western leaders and countries in the negotiations might have affected the outcomes, though it's essential to view such claims with consideration of the broader geopolitical context and the array of factors influencing diplomatic negotiations.

It is true that the mentioned peace efforts, including the Minsk agreements and discussions in Turkey, aimed to address the conflict's underlying issues. However, achieving peace has been complicated by various factors, including political will, international dynamics, security concerns, and differing visions for Ukraine's future. The user's response underscores the complexity of the negotiation process and the influence of international actors on peace efforts.
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I expanded the questioning a little.

What possible reasons could the western leaders have for not wanting peace between Ukraine and Russia?

The question of why some Western leaders might appear resistant to peace between Ukraine and Russia involves a complex interplay of geopolitical, strategic, and ideological considerations. It's important to clarify that publicly, almost all Western leaders express a desire for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. However, the nature of that peace—how it's achieved, on what terms, and with what guarantees for future security—is where differences emerge. Here are some possible reasons for the apparent resistance or cautious approach to peace efforts:

1. Security and Strategic Interests

NATO Expansion: Some Western countries are concerned about setting precedents that might encourage aggression against or undermine the sovereignty of other states, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Baltics, which are part of NATO or aspire to membership.

Russian Influence: There's also apprehension about allowing Russia to maintain or expand its influence in Eastern Europe, potentially destabilizing the region and threatening the post-Cold War security order.

2. Principles of International Law and Sovereignty

Territorial Integrity: Many Western countries emphasize the importance of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. There's a reluctance to endorse any peace deal that might be seen as legitimizing territorial changes achieved by force, fearing it could set a dangerous international precedent.

Rule of Law: Upholding international law, including the UN Charter's provisions on the sovereignty of states and the illegality of acquiring territory by force, is a fundamental principle for many Western nations.

3. Domestic Political Considerations

Public Opinion: In many Western countries, public opinion is sympathetic to Ukraine and critical of Russian actions. Leaders may feel domestic pressure to take a firm stance against Russia.

Political Ideologies: Political ideologies and values, including democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, play a significant role in shaping Western countries' foreign policies. Support for Ukraine is often framed within this context of supporting a democratic country resisting aggression.

4. Economic and Energy Security

Energy Dependence: For some European countries, the conflict has underscored the risks of dependence on Russian energy. Negotiating peace without addressing energy security could leave vulnerabilities unaddressed.

Economic Sanctions: The use of economic sanctions against Russia is a key part of the Western response. The terms of peace might affect the continuation, lifting, or intensification of these sanctions.

5. Long-Term Stability and Security Architecture

Future Conflicts: There's concern about the message that the outcome might send to other potential aggressors. A peace deal perceived as favorable to Russia could be seen as weakening the deterrence against future territorial aggression elsewhere.

Security Guarantees: Ensuring that any peace agreement includes robust security guarantees for Ukraine and addresses the broader security concerns of Europe is crucial for Western leaders.

6. Humanitarian Concerns and Justice

Human Rights: The humanitarian impact of the conflict, including civilian casualties, displacement, and human rights abuses, is a significant concern. Some Western leaders emphasize the need for accountability and justice as part of the peace process.

In conclusion, while the desire for peace is broadly shared, the conditions and consequences of that peace are subjects of intense debate. Western leaders must balance a range of sometimes competing interests, including immediate security concerns, long-term geopolitical stability, legal principles, and domestic political pressures.
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And then reversed the polarity.

On the flip side of the coin, what could Russia's reasons be for wanting to prolong the war?

The reasons behind Russia's actions and strategies, including any desire to prolong the conflict with Ukraine, are subject to various interpretations and depend on insights into the Kremlin's objectives and calculations. Below are several factors that analysts and observers often cite as potentially influencing Russia's approach to the conflict:

1. Strategic Goals and Security Concerns

Buffer Zone: Russia may seek to maintain a buffer zone between itself and NATO, viewing Ukraine's potential NATO membership or closer ties with the West as a direct threat to its national security.

Influence in the Post-Soviet Space: Asserting dominance or influence over Ukraine and other former Soviet states could be seen as crucial to maintaining Russia's status as a regional power and protecting its interests in the region.

2. Domestic Political Considerations

Nationalism and Historical Ties: The narrative of protecting Russian speakers and the historical ties between Russia and Ukraine plays a significant role in domestic politics. The Kremlin might use the conflict to rally nationalistic support and consolidate power internally.

Regime Stability: By focusing on external conflicts, the Russian government might aim to distract from domestic issues, such as economic challenges or political dissent, thus maintaining regime stability.

3. Economic Interests

Resource Control: Control over certain territories, particularly in Eastern Ukraine, could be motivated by economic interests, including access to natural resources, industrial assets, and strategic ports.

4. International Posture and Great Power Status

Resistance to Western Influence: Demonstrating the ability to defy Western pressure and sanctions could be aimed at reinforcing Russia's image as a sovereign great power capable of pursuing its interests despite opposition.

Multipolar World Order: Russia may view its actions as part of a broader effort to challenge the perceived unipolar world order dominated by the United States and to promote a multipolar world where Russia is recognized as a key power center.

5. Military and Tactical Considerations

Testing NATO and EU Resolve: The conflict could be seen as a way to test the cohesion and resolve of NATO and the EU, potentially exploiting divisions within and between these entities.

Military Strategy: Prolonging the conflict might be seen as a strategy to wear down Ukrainian resistance, deplete its resources, and force Ukraine into concessions or negotiations on terms more favorable to Russia.

6. Negotiation Leverage

Bargaining Power: Maintaining control over certain territories or continuing military activities might be intended to strengthen Russia's bargaining position in any future negotiations, aiming for concessions on security arrangements, sanctions relief, or political recognition of territorial changes.

7. Information Warfare and Perception Management

Shaping Narratives: The prolongation and conduct of the conflict are also battlegrounds for information warfare, with efforts to shape domestic and international perceptions of the conflict, justify Russia's actions, and influence public opinion and policy decisions globally. It's crucial to recognize that these factors are speculative and based on the analysis of publicly available information and observed behaviors. The actual motivations of the Russian government are complex, multifaceted, and influenced by a dynamic international environment, internal politics, and strategic calculations that may not be fully visible or understood externally.
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This still goin' on right up to 15 pages now? Damn... politics brings out the best in people.
 
konfab said:
How many times have you heard "Russian election interference" as being the reason why Trump was elected?

I would suspect a fair number of the MAGA people actually believed the agitiprop spouted by progressives in claiming that Putin caused the Trump victory in 2016.
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Putin prefers Trump because he can manipulate him easier even though their ideologies are a mismatch. Trump unlike other US Presidents is less likely to listen to his advisors and so easier to manipulate if you understand his personality and ego.

If Trump wins US elections, it's game over for Ukraine.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
Putin prefers Trump because he can manipulate him easier even though their ideologies are a mismatch.

If Trump wins US elections, it's game over for Ukraine.
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Trump is unstable, he makes decisions without regard of consequence, similar to Putin in a way.

If Trump was a Russian president, he'd be worse than Putin.
 
JuliusSeizure said:
Putin prefers Trump because he can manipulate him easier even though their ideologies are a mismatch. Trump unlike other US Presidents is less likely to listen to his advisors and so easier to manipulate if you understand his personality and ego.
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I doubt it. Trump's presidency was plagued by his retarded advisors. Hence why he behaved mostly like a RINO

JuliusSeizure said:
If Trump wins US elections, it's game over for Ukraine.
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Its game over for them anyway.
 
konfab said:
I doubt it. Trump's presidency was plagued by his retarded advisors. Hence why he behaved mostly like a RINO


Its game over for them anyway.
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Thats my point. An advisor just advises, Trump had the final say in his decisions. Behaviour is moulded by Parents/Upbringing/Environment, Personality/IQ/EQ and Mindset.

I'm not saying that Biden is better or worse - just pointing out something.
 
Solarion said:
He should not have been imprisoned Dave. Deported perhaps, but his crime did not merit is imprisonment. It would seem he died from the witholding of medical treatment until it was too late. The overriding factor here is that he should not have been in that position in the first place.
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Ukraine had every right to detain him. He was initially arrested and released on bail but decided to gap it and was again arrested for trying to flee the country.

In spring 2022, he filmed provocative videos, showing the faces of Ukrainian soldiers and insulting the country’s defenders. He posted the videos on YouTube and Twitter, where he has nearly 300,000 subscribers.

The SBU has also accused him of denying the facts of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and the mass killings of civilians by the invading forces.

During a search of his possessions, law enforcement officials found mobile phones and a computer that contained evidence of his illegal activity
english.nv.ua

Pro-Russian blogger Gonzalo Lira detained in Kharkiv

Ukraine’s SBU security service has arrested Moscow-aligned blogger Gonzalo Lira in Kharkiv, who is accused of denying Russian war crimes and insulting Ukrainian troops, SBU said in a Telegram post on May 5.
english.nv.ua english.nv.ua
 
sefeddt said:
Ukraine had every right to detain him.
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I'm sure it was legal and within their rights. Doesn't mean it was the right thing to do.

In spring 2022, he filmed provocative videos, showing the faces of Ukrainian soldiers and insulting the country’s defenders.
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Immediate deportation would be warranted, I don't know if jail time is. I haven't seen the videos but this seems like a free speech issue. Arresting someone for insulting the troops is something I would expect from MAGAts.
 
RanzB said:
I'm sure it was legal and within their rights. Doesn't mean it was the right thing to do.



Immediate deportation would be warranted, I don't know if jail time is. I haven't seen the videos but this seems like a free speech issue. Arresting someone for insulting the troops is something I would expect from MAGAts.
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You call taking pictures of AFU members and publishing them a misdemeanour? get real. He was on bail and had the option to be tried and it is for the court to decide his fate, even Russia, much as its a sham (arresting and trying the parent of a 10yr old who drew a picture deemed offensive) gives off this appearance. it was HE who decided to gap it.

In your view Ukraine publishes a list of restrictions, Lira, been a US/Chile citizen can choose to ignore it, claiming "free speech"? Are there separate rules for different people ?
 
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konfab said:
I doubt it. Trump's presidency was plagued by his retarded advisors. Hence why he behaved mostly like a RINO


Its game over for them anyway.
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Putin is a smart strategist but evil.

Trump is just charismatic but really a poor strategist and so Putin knows he can easily take advantage of this guy.
 
sefeddt said:
Ukraine had every right to detain him. He was initially arrested and released on bail but decided to gap it and was again arrested for trying to flee the country.

In spring 2022, he filmed provocative videos, showing the faces of Ukrainian soldiers and insulting the country’s defenders. He posted the videos on YouTube and Twitter, where he has nearly 300,000 subscribers.

The SBU has also accused him of denying the facts of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and the mass killings of civilians by the invading forces.

During a search of his possessions, law enforcement officials found mobile phones and a computer that contained evidence of his illegal activity
english.nv.ua

Pro-Russian blogger Gonzalo Lira detained in Kharkiv

Ukraine’s SBU security service has arrested Moscow-aligned blogger Gonzalo Lira in Kharkiv, who is accused of denying Russian war crimes and insulting Ukrainian troops, SBU said in a Telegram post on May 5.
english.nv.ua english.nv.ua
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Gonzalo Lira was 100% correct in refuting the 'mass killings of civilians' by Russia. Since it never happened.
It's a classic case of the state persecuting its enemies. I don't expect you to see it - you are way too partisan on this.
 
All Zelenskyy has to do, is, well nothing.

Tell all the troops to stand down. Putin's army marches right past Kiev and up to NATO's border.

NATO, your move. Now you fight your own battles.
 
Solarion said:
All Zelenskyy has to do, is, well nothing.

Tell all the troops to stand down. Putin's army marches right past Kiev and up to NATO's border.

NATO, your move. Now you fight your own battles.
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Looks like Europe's imminent defeat is on the cards?
 
There has been no official cause of death reported, nor an independent investigation.
The FACT is we don't know how, or from what he died.
I'm not going to speculate on anything.
 
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