JUST IN | Inflation cools slightly to 7.5%

[BBSA]

The expert will reveal everything in the thread.

Okay, I thought for a second you went over to the dark side.

 

[Wut]

I see the UK hit double digits this month.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1582621052483428352

 

[surface]

I see the UK hit double digits this month.

But good thing is that you can sell home grown tomatoes in ASDA now. Before brexit, it was not possible.

 

[rietrot]

Yes. The SARB didn't completely cr@p the bed with COVID .

Inflation ultimately is a money supply phenomena. In SA, there wasn't that much of an increase. A small poo if you will
View attachment 1404439

UK central bank took quite a big dump.
View attachment 1404449


The US federal reserve unleashed a $hit tsunami in terms of money supply
View attachment 1404445

South Africa Money Supply M1, 1965 – 2023 | CEIC Data

South Africa Money Supply M1 was reported at 146.486 USD bn in Nov 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 132.846 USD bn for Oct 2022.

www.ceicdata.com

US Money Supply M1, 1959 – 2023 | CEIC Data

US Money Supply M1 was reported at 19,933.200 USD bn in Nov 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 20,099.700 USD bn for Oct 2022.

www.ceicdata.com

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-kingdom/money-supply-m1

But the US exports their inflation as everyone needs to use dollars so the dollar is still strong, whilst we make nothing of value so nobody wants Rands.

To follow through with your analogy. The US shíts chocolates and the world loves it.

We farted, and people are holding their nose.

 

[rietrot]

The housing market. Especially mortgages/banks will be interesting.

People took advantage of lower rates to buy houses they cannot really afford in a high rate environment.

Lots of 2008 vibes.

 

[Pegasus]

Apart from the term "Inflation" is the abstract boxing/projection of "The mismanagement of money & resources in any economy", I cannot for the life of me figure out how they come to such a low percentage. Most stuff I bought risen recently at least double in price apart from a few foodstuff, so I don't get the extreme low value of around 7%,the damage is far more than that, no bussiness wants to bent..

There is a link here with the breakdown.

Inflation cools for a second month | Statistics South Africa

www.statssa.gov.za

The annual number is from the last available month's CPI over 12 months ago's number, it's not a 2 year or 5 year number.

 

[konfab]

But the US exports their inflation as everyone needs to use dollars so the dollar is still strong, whilst we make nothing of value so nobody wants Rands.

There is only so much that proverbial cow could absorb.

 

[rietrot]

There is only so much that proverbial cow could absorb.

For that to be true you need a workable alternative.

Western incompetence has basically set China up to take over, but they did the communist thing and screwed themselves with Covid craziness... so now there's no one

 

[BBSA]

For that to be true you need a workable alternative.

Western incompetence has basically set China up to take over, but they did the communist thing and screwed themselves with Covid craziness... so now there's no one

India will take over.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

The official government figures are wrong?

are you only paying ±7% more in expenses this year compared to last?

is anyone else on this forum?

of course the official government figures are wrong, intentionally so, governments across the world simply cannot afford to report accurate figures, their populations will not remain so docile if for example interest rates had to shoot up 10% in one go

 

[rietrot]

are you only paying ±7% more in expenses this year compared to last?

is anyone else on this forum?

of course the official government figures are wrong, intentionally so, governments across the world simply cannot afford to report accurate figures, their populations will not remain so docile if for example interest rates had to shoot up 10% in one go

The official figures is correct for the very specific basket of goods they measure.

It's an attempt at guesstimating an average. Which means that most people will experience more inflation, and if you are poor enough to only eat dirt like a lot of SA. Then you'll have experienced less inflation.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Statssa publishes a full breakdown of each basket element. Maybe download that and show us which numbers are incorrect?

the basket itself is nonsense, interrogating each item would be a waste of time

for the most part it steers clear of specific brands so as long as they can scratch up "one government loaf of brown bread" from a local corner cafe at a low price the official price remains low

and 'F' all of us who don't have access to such things and can only pick between Sasko/Albany/Blue Ribbon brown bread on the shelf at PnP/Spar/Checkers

the weighting assigned directly to fuel costs is also laughably low for a country where virtually all transport and all commuters can only get around by burning fuel on public roads, we have no waterways worth mentioning inland, we have no railway service worth mentioning etc

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Which means that most people will experience more inflation

which is precisely why the basket is bullshyte

an average is nothing but a useless figure if it is not representative of what most people would experience

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

much more inclined to trust the figures from these guys:

Food costs have risen 30% since coronavirus lockdown began

A study reveals that since the end of March, the price of basic food items such as rice, bread and potatoes have all gone up.

ewn.co.za

ironically their homepage currently errors out with a "bandwidth exceeded", guess their hosting costs also got out of control:

PMBEJD – Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity

pmbejd.org.za

 

[Speedster]

the basket itself is nonsense, interrogating each item would be a waste of time

for the most part it steers clear of specific brands so as long as they can scratch up "one government loaf of brown bread" from a local corner cafe at a low price the official price remains low

and 'F' all of us who don't have access to such things and can only pick between Sasko/Albany/Blue Ribbon brown bread on the shelf at PnP/Spar/Checkers

the weighting assigned directly to fuel costs is also laughably low for a country where virtually all transport and all commuters can only get around by burning fuel on public roads, we have no waterways worth mentioning inland, we have no railway service worth mentioning etc

Perhaps you should contact statssa with a proposal to teach them how to weight their basket properly. I'm sure they'd pay good money for someone as knowledgeable as you in this field.

 

[Pegasus]

the basket itself is nonsense, interrogating each item would be a waste of time

for the most part it steers clear of specific brands so as long as they can scratch up "one government loaf of brown bread" from a local corner cafe at a low price the official price remains low

and 'F' all of us who don't have access to such things and can only pick between Sasko/Albany/Blue Ribbon brown bread on the shelf at PnP/Spar/Checkers

the weighting assigned directly to fuel costs is also laughably low for a country where virtually all transport and all commuters can only get around by burning fuel on public roads, we have no waterways worth mentioning inland, we have no railway service worth mentioning etc

Do you want Stats SA to calculate 50 million baskets?

 

[BBSA]

The expert will reveal everything in the thread.

You were right, the expert is schooling us.

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Perhaps you should contact statssa with a proposal to teach them how to weight their basket properly. I'm sure they'd pay good money for someone as knowledgeable as you in this field.

you have a problem right there at the start: assuming StatsSA has any interest in doing it properly when government is incentivised to not do it properly

 

[NarrowBandFtw]

Do you want Stats SA to calculate 50 million baskets?

do I care at all about their method as long as the output is realistic?

no I don't

given that the output is complete kak one can safely state the method is kak

 

[Speedster]

do I care at all about their method as long as the output is realistic?

no I don't

given that the output is complete kak one can safely state the method is kak

Perhaps you should then start your own inflation index. Private sector would pay good money for this.

Have you considered that perhaps your entire basket hasn't infact grown at the rate you think, but that a few items have skewed your perception?