Many predictions examining the potential consequences of a nuclear strike focus on either the immediate fatalities or the radioactive aftermath. A team from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln has taken a broader look at what effect the detonation of a nuclear weapon would be on global climate patterns – and the conclusions are a little frightening.
The team's research was inspired by a concern that we have moved passed the classical Cold War paradigm, where the United States and the Soviet Union were frozen in a stand-off dominated by the doctrine of mutually assured destruction. Many smaller, and potentially erratic, nation-states have now gained nuclear weapons, raising the important question of what the broader effects of a nuclear strike would be on the entire globe.
The study expands on previous nuclear war simulations that calculated an ignition of 1,300 sq km (579 sq mi) of urban land would disperse more than 5 million metric tons of black carbon particles into the stratosphere. These simulations predict not so much the catastrophic "nuclear winter" that the 20th century Cold War panic taught us, but rather a more moderate "nuclear autumn" scenario.
The new study estimates that if 5 million metric tons of black carbon were ejected into the stratosphere it would result in a significant decrease in global rainfall, anywhere from 20 to 80 percent depending on the specific area. This would affect the planet's total volume of agricultural production with growing seasons potentialy reduced by between 10 and 40 days per year for up to five years. The study estimates the resulting famine from this assortment of climate effects could kill up to a billion people, mainly in developing "food insecure" countries.
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