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This is the most credible place to find data on deaths in SA:
The latest full report is found here:
View attachment 869861
Here is an estimate for SA and for WC.Link to informative American estimate Rt values for each state. Rt is a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.
Cannot find anything similar for SA unfortunately. On the 2nd July South Africa's estimated Rt was 1.22
Here is an estimate for SA and for WC.
Then there are the "official" estimates found here:
The initial R following introduction of imported cases was estimated between1.7-2.5 (estimation period: 19 days from introduction) reflecting early transmission mainly from travellers into South Africa. The flight restrictions and school closures followed by level 5 lockdown appears to have substantially reduced the R, likely contributing to substantial flattening of the epidemic curve. While transmission has been slowed, R remains above 1, indicating ongoing transmission.
In the Western Cape Province, the daily R remained at around 1.5 during the initial stage 5 lockdown. Towards the second half of the stage 5 lockdown and the current stage 4 lockdown, R increased above 1.5, returning to around 1.5 in recent weeks reflecting ongoing raising of the epidemic.
In other provinces where estimation was possible (Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape provinces), the R during the stage 4 lockdown has been between 1 and 1.5 reflecting ongoing steady progression or raising of the epidemic.
Further lifting of the lockdown may be associated with increases in R in different provinces. Importantly, changes in rate of reporting and case definitions for testing may change over time potentially affecting R estimation.
While we attempted to adjust for changes in testing practice, residual bias may remain. Therefore it is important to interpret these findings together with data on testing and other sources of data on transmission.
In addition, caution should be exercised in interpreting comparisons between different timepoints and provinces as these could be affected by differential testing practices.
That would go in the COVID news thread.Something about this article has been bothering me.
‘We did not anticipate high number of asymptomatic people, which shows how extensive infection rate is’www.timeslive.co.za
I mean at first I was glad to know that most people in SA seem to be asymptomatic, but just now it struck me. Death rates are certainly not under-reported nearly as much as the gap in testing. It would suggest that somewhere between 2.5 and 10 million people in our country already has[/d] the virus (maybe even more if the infection rate in the sample from their study was lower than the actual figue - which is also possible). If that is true then that would mean that the death rate for covid is somewhere between 0.1% to as low as 0.025%.
I honestly don't know anymore. Has this all been a lie?
Great! Estimated Rt values are now available for all provinces.