Live Trackers & Statistics (COVID-19)

Pablo37

Active Member
Joined
Aug 10, 2015
Messages
92
Link to informative American estimate Rt values for each state. Rt is a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.
Cannot find anything similar for SA unfortunately. On the 2nd July South Africa's estimated Rt was 1.22
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
15,230
Link to informative American estimate Rt values for each state. Rt is a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.
Cannot find anything similar for SA unfortunately. On the 2nd July South Africa's estimated Rt was 1.22
Here is an estimate for SA and for WC.



1593945597384.png1593945672721.png

Then there are the "official" estimates found here:

 

Pablo37

Active Member
Joined
Aug 10, 2015
Messages
92
Here is an estimate for SA and for WC.


Then there are the "official" estimates found here:
:thumbsup: @Geoff.D Hopefully 'Media Hack' will soon include all the provinces. It would also be great to see them all in a similar format, on one visualisation.
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
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15,230
The important thing is to take note of the info in the interpretation of the "official" Rt values as tabled in the NICD report.
What you see there is the impact of changed testing methods, and the attempts to account for any bias that may arise as a result of the changes in testing practices.

For me, it shows that while WC did change its testing practices, the process is far more controlled there and the data coming back is generally credible.
However, when you look at the other provinces, the poor epidemic management, lack of consistent control of the testing practices, poor data collection, inaccuracies etc, show up in the results on any analysis done the Rt curves.

There is only one province in the country on top of this epidemic and that is the WC.

The initial R following introduction of imported cases was estimated between1.7-2.5 (estimation period: 19 days from introduction) reflecting early transmission mainly from travellers into South Africa. The flight restrictions and school closures followed by level 5 lockdown appears to have substantially reduced the R, likely contributing to substantial flattening of the epidemic curve. While transmission has been slowed, R remains above 1, indicating ongoing transmission.
In the Western Cape Province, the daily R remained at around 1.5 during the initial stage 5 lockdown. Towards the second half of the stage 5 lockdown and the current stage 4 lockdown, R increased above 1.5, returning to around 1.5 in recent weeks reflecting ongoing raising of the epidemic.
In other provinces where estimation was possible (Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape provinces), the R during the stage 4 lockdown has been between 1 and 1.5 reflecting ongoing steady progression or raising of the epidemic.
Further lifting of the lockdown may be associated with increases in R in different provinces. Importantly, changes in rate of reporting and case definitions for testing may change over time potentially affecting R estimation.
While we attempted to adjust for changes in testing practice, residual bias may remain. Therefore it is important to interpret these findings together with data on testing and other sources of data on transmission.

In addition, caution should be exercised in interpreting comparisons between different timepoints and provinces as these could be affected by differential testing practices.
The report is very polite in its commentary. It is the best we have available at the moment.
 

chrisc

Executive Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2008
Messages
8,533
Where can you view graphs and statistics about the situation in the various parts of SA - like 7 day averages, etc per area?

Total infections
7 day infections
Slope of infections
Recoveries
Deaths
 

mcroffels

Active Member
Joined
Feb 27, 2007
Messages
47
Yeah I’m also interested in a graph that shows daily new infections per province. I think this is one of the most important pieces of info and yet can’t find it anywhere
 

Geoff.D

Honorary Master
Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
15,230
This is the best we have at the moment:


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1594297997890.png
 

RedViking

Nord of the South
Joined
Feb 23, 2012
Messages
28,673
Something about this article has been bothering me.


I mean at first I was glad to know that most people in SA seem to be asymptomatic, but just now it struck me. Death rates are certainly not under-reported nearly as much as the gap in testing. It would suggest that somewhere between 2.5 and 10 million people in our country already has[/d] the virus (maybe even more if the infection rate in the sample from their study was lower than the actual figue - which is also possible). If that is true then that would mean that the death rate for covid is somewhere between 0.1% to as low as 0.025%.

I honestly don't know anymore. Has this all been a lie?
That would go in the COVID news thread.
 

Gozado

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 13, 2019
Messages
227
Australia
These figures are from a national dataset of every confirmed case since January 25, when the country’s first four cases were reported.
Compiled by ABC News, the dataset tracks cases as they are confirmed by state and federal health authorities. It is supplemented with additional reporting by ABC News and updated daily.

 
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