Seven_Nine_Eight

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Aug 7, 2020
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New data from UK.
Data used:

TechDat.png

A couple of interesting observations:
1) Rate of death with 28 days of getting COVID is 2.5 - 10 times less compared to unvaccinated people. In other words, the vaccines are effective at preventing death (no surprise there).
2) The bottom right graph suggests the vaccines are becoming less effective at preventing death.
3) For the age groups 40-79 it looks like the rate of infection is higher among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated (this is seen in top right of above picture and also Figure 2 of the documents used for the data). This is a bit unexpected.

Let's look at the variant data:

Tech_Dat24.png
The underlying data suggests "Other" has completely taken over Delta. This is likely an error in the data though.

An interesting paper was published in Cell:
One-shot identification of SARS-CoV-2 S RBD escape mutants using yeast screening

They developed a method to predict potential escape mutants. Figure 3 and 4 in the article provide useful summaries.

By comparing this data with the data found in Table 5 of the technical briefing 24 some interesting mutants and their prevalence pop up, including:
417, 455, 483, 484, 493 and 501.
 
Last edited:

Ghost64

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Sep 12, 2021
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So the vaccine works at preventing death
But the vaccine wears off after x amount of time and then the vaccine doesn’t work well at preventing death
Ages 40-79 with the vaccine that works gets infected more than unvaccinated.

Eh?

Could other be a new mutation?
 

Seven_Nine_Eight

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Joined
Aug 7, 2020
Messages
164
So the vaccine works at preventing death
But the vaccine wears off after x amount of time and then the vaccine doesn’t work well at preventing death
Ages 40-79 with the vaccine that works gets infected more than unvaccinated.

Eh?

Could other be a new mutation?
Not sure exactly what to make of it yet. Some clarification is needed.
 

Geoff.D

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Joined
Aug 4, 2005
Messages
24,599
New data from UK.
Data used:

View attachment 1158884

A couple of interesting observations:
1) Rate of death with 28 days of getting COVID is 2.5 - 10 times less compared to unvaccinated people. In other words, the vaccines are effective at preventing death (no surprise there).
2) The bottom right graph suggests the vaccines are becoming less effective at preventing death.
3) For the age groups 40-79 it looks like the rate of infection is higher among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated (this is seen in top right of above picture and also Figure 2 of the documents used for the data). This is a bit unexpected.

Let's look at the variant data:

View attachment 1158888
The underlying data suggests "Other" has completely taken over Delta. This is likely an error in the data though.

An interesting paper was published in Cell:
One-shot identification of SARS-CoV-2 S RBD escape mutants using yeast screening

They developed a method to predict potential escape mutants. Figure 3 and 4 in the article provide useful summaries.

By comparing this data with the data found in Table 5 of the technical briefing 24 some interesting mutants and their prevalence pop up, including:
417, 455, 483, 484, 493 and 501.
Interesting stats and analysis.
The problem is it is almost impossible to factor in human behaviour and how it changes as people get vaccinated.
 

surface

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Oct 23, 2006
Messages
17,855

Ghost64

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 12, 2021
Messages
1,844
New data from UK.
Data used:

View attachment 1158884

A couple of interesting observations:
1) Rate of death with 28 days of getting COVID is 2.5 - 10 times less compared to unvaccinated people. In other words, the vaccines are effective at preventing death (no surprise there).
2) The bottom right graph suggests the vaccines are becoming less effective at preventing death.
3) For the age groups 40-79 it looks like the rate of infection is higher among vaccinated compared to unvaccinated (this is seen in top right of above picture and also Figure 2 of the documents used for the data). This is a bit unexpected.

Let's look at the variant data:

View attachment 1158888
The underlying data suggests "Other" has completely taken over Delta. This is likely an error in the data though.

An interesting paper was published in Cell:
One-shot identification of SARS-CoV-2 S RBD escape mutants using yeast screening

They developed a method to predict potential escape mutants. Figure 3 and 4 in the article provide useful summaries.

By comparing this data with the data found in Table 5 of the technical briefing 24 some interesting mutants and their prevalence pop up, including:
417, 455, 483, 484, 493 and 501.
Any further info on the “other” that’s causing the spike?
 

Ghost64

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Joined
Sep 12, 2021
Messages
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I can't find anything addressing the issue. It looks like we will have to wait until next Friday for the next update.
Saw Geoff posted the new variant Delta strain AY4.2, that could be the gray spike.

Edit: saw you already mentioned the AY.4.2
 
Last edited:

Ghost64

Expert Member
Joined
Sep 12, 2021
Messages
1,844
AY.4.2 spreading in UK and Israel.
Still small numbers though, 6% of the total UK numbers in the past week.

I think it’s mutated to bypass the vaccine much easier. They also expecting it to reach 100k a day.
 

Itsa Trap

Expert Member
Joined
Jan 22, 2020
Messages
1,402
How do we go from 312 new cases to near 20k new cases in 1 day? The graph looks like it is being launched by SpaceX this morning. Wat kein?
 
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