Load-shedding may hit at short notice

Jamie McKane

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Load-shedding may hit at short notice

Eskom issued a statement on 4 November, warning South Africans that the national electricity grid is severely constrained due to the unexpected loss of power generation units.

"The electricity system is severely constrained today and will remain so until at least Thursday," Eskom said.
 

Moosedrool

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Just give them another 100 billion or something and this problem magically goes away. Poof.
 

Zoomzoom

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Translation - we want more money and you aren't scared enough yet to give it to us.

I refuse to accept this. The power will not go out.
 

RedViking

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Well that is usually how it hits. If we could see the Eskom's bank account and transactions we would have a better idea for when it will hit.
 

ambroseg1

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I have actually started to embrace load shedding, the same way I embraced sht service from car dealerships. If it were not for absolutely horrendous service from the local Ford dealer, I would probably one of those suckers who drives a new car every 5 years. But because of their sht service I have stuck it out with the car I have for 12 years now. No new car debt. Instead big nice house. Massive savings.

Load shedding is the same. If we had load shedding every single day, I would save a ton in electricity.
 

Gaz{M}

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It's going to get worse. Look at the predictions for November/December coming up. (Red Risk level).

736863
 

Zoomzoom

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I'm so tired of all the doom and glooming. It doesn't HAVE to go off! They can make a plan. Fix it. Whatevers. Don't care. So long as it doesn't go off.
 

ToxicBunny

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8000MW planned maintenance is ok... its the assumption that 9500MW will be offline and not for maintenance.

That number should be falling as the maintenance schedule is undertaken.
 

wingnut771

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8000MW planned maintenance is ok... its the assumption that 9500MW will be offline and not for maintenance.

That number should be falling as the maintenance schedule is undertaken.
that's probably all the stuff that can't be fixed due to the level of damage (new part's need to be manufactured overseas etc, and with no money in the coffers they can't afford to repair the damage and would explain why that figure is constant)
 

Johnatan56

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8000MW planned maintenance is ok... its the assumption that 9500MW will be offline and not for maintenance.

That number should be falling as the maintenance schedule is undertaken.
This might interest you, May 2019:
Currently, the utility has only 2,000 megawatts (MW) of spare capacity available to meet higher demand, said Jan Oberholzer, the chief operating officer.

This is equivalent to less than 5% of Eskom’s 46,000MW total generating capacity. The normal practice is for electricity producers to keep spare capacity of 15% in order to meet any sudden spurt in demand. Eskom has less than three times this
[...]
Eskom aims to keep unplanned equipment breakdowns below 9,500MW at a time, while accelerating planned maintenance to 5,500MW of generating assets. This should take the utility to more than six months without resorting to power rationing.
[...]
The focus on maintenance resulted in the energy availability factor rising to 70.4% in the past three months, from 67.7% in the period ended March.
What's interesting about the article is that they should already be starting to complete with the maintenance backlog by ~December, but doesn't look like it.
It's a case of panic when there's load shedding so something gets done, then it's dropped/deprioritized once the media moves on again.

This is from 2014:
South Africa's power supply theoretically totals over 48,000 megawatts (MW).
Eskom has more than 42 000 MW of its own generation capacity. Another 3 000 MW is controlled by independent generators such as Sasol.
The Energy Department estimates the utility can call on consumers to reduce demand by up to 2 500 MW when supplies run short.
The problem is that much of the fleet is unavailable. Following the blackouts in 2008, Eskom has boosted supplies by postponing scheduled maintenance. However, the result has been a "deterioration in the performance of the aging fleet", according to the department of dnergy.
The 2010 Integrated Resource Plan assumed 86 percent of Eskom's generating capacity would be available on average, but it has dropped to less than 80%.
In recent months as much as 23% of Eskom's generation capacity has been unavailable, according to calculations by Bloomberg ("Eskom Starts Power Blackouts in South Africa Because of Wet Coal" March 6).
Lovely how nothing has changed, we've had this issue for about a decade now, it's the norm.
 
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