Load shedding this week: Eskom

[Kevin Lancaster]

Load shedding this week: Eskom

The risk of load shedding throughout the week was highly likely, according to Eskom.

 

[Paul_S]

Just wait until winter arrives when geysers need to warm up colder inlet water and people start switching their heaters on ...

 

[heartbroken]

Just wait until winter arrives when geysers need to warm up colder inlet water and people start switching their heaters on ...

This winter is going to be a cluster**** of note.

 

[ellyally]

This winter is going to be a cluster**** of note.

Indeed, stage 3+ every day

 

[Segg]

Just wait until winter arrives when geysers need to warm up colder inlet water and people start switching their heaters on ...

If its anything like 2014's predicted forecast we're in deep trouble, note they can only supply 29 991 MW today, and 30 381 MW for Tuesday and Wednesday, this makes me wonder how they're going to come up with enough capacity to meet the 36 000 MW peak load for winter

 

[Sneeky]

Interesting and looking at this graph and comparing the 2 we are struggling to stay online well below the 32000MW level.

edit: SNAP my thoughts exactly Segg

 

[Paul_S]

If its anything like 2014's predicted forecast we're in deep trouble

Wow! :wtf:
That means not even stage 3 load shedding will free up enough power at current generation capacity.
Eskom will need to implement stage 4 or redefine stage 3 as 8000MW.
Time to get a couple of spare 19kg gas cylinders filled (generators are too expensive).

 

[chicken247]

Just wait until winter arrives when geysers need to warm up colder inlet water and people start switching their heaters on ...

Do you have stats on what % of total power generation actually goes to dwellings or is this a thumbsuck?

 

[Paul_S]

Do you have stats on what % of total power generation actually goes to dwellings or is this a thumbsuck?

Just a thumbsuck because Eskom don't appear to publish the residential and industrial consumption based on time.
However the graph already posted in this thread clearly shows that residential users create a massive peak in the winter evenings.
Most industries will be winding down their operations after 17:00 so it's clearly not a peak created by industry.
http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=207222&d=1428927231

If Eskom's peak generation capacity is currently 31000 to 32000MW but the consumption is 36000+MW in winter then we're going to face a shortage of 4000 to 5000MW during the evenings unless Eskom pull a few MW out of their hat (very unlikely).

Some more terrifying stats: http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-...uarter-in-how-do-things-really-look-at-eskom/

 

[vaakseun]

Just a thumbsuck because Eskom don't appear to publish the residential and industrial consumption based on time.
Most industries will be winding down their operations after 17:00 so it's clearly not a peak created by industry.
http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=207222&d=1428927231

Keep in mind that the really big electricity users such as the smelters and mining operate around the clock.

 

[Paul_S]

Keep in mind that the really big electricity users such as the smelters and mining operate around the clock.

Which means that their consumption is pretty constant since they can't let furnaces cool down.

 

[ellyally]

Which means that their consumption is pretty constant since they can't let furnaces cool down.

Indeed, but just like geysers/cuppa coffee)) etc, they cool down faster in colder weather so require more power to keep temp constant, which means 'higher constant consumption' during winter

 

[cavedog]

If those 20 municipalities don't pay up then Eskom will have some amount of extra MW to freed to other places.

IF that happens though and if it does not I can't see how Eskom will keep the lights on. If they manage to keep most of the units online what will happen to their diesel account? It will get destroyed and what about refueling and repumping the water back on the free flow schemes. God forbid any unit going offline and then the stages will just increase.

Going to be a interesting winter.

 

[Segg]

If those 20 municipalities don't pay up then Eskom will have some amount of extra MW to freed to other places.

IF that happens though and if it does not I can't see how Eskom will keep the lights on. If they manage to keep most of the units online what will happen to their diesel account? It will get destroyed and what about refueling and repumping the water back on the free flow schemes. God forbid any unit going offline and then the stages will just increase.

Going to be a interesting winter.

Even with their gas turbines constantly running they can't meet summer demand, and with a 4000-6000mw shortfall shytes gonna be real (cold) in the next few weeks

 

[cavedog]

Even with their gas turbines constantly running they can't meet summer demand, and with a 4000-6000mw shortfall shytes gonna be real (cold) in the next few weeks

Do you really think it will hit that bad? I don't think it will but I'm being a bit naive here but Eskom managed to keep the lights on for most part and I just don't know how they are doing it though as their own graphs shows demand exceeding supply.

 

[Segg]

Do you really think it will hit that bad? I don't think it will but I'm being a bit naive here but Eskom managed to keep the lights on for most part and I just don't know how they are doing it though as their own graphs shows demand exceeding supply.

This is how I see it, they've apparently got the capability to generate 46 GW, currently they can only produce about 30GW

They're either using the lower demand in summer to carry out maintenance and sort out enough capacity to produce at least 36GW for the winter months

OR

They are only doing enough maintenance to try meet what is required for the short term, and will try "climb the hill when they get there"

I hope it's the first scenario, but my gut tells me it's the second, and it'll simply be a case of this is what we have, so make do with it. I.E, regular stage 3 and 4 load shedding

 

[schumi]

This is how I see it, they've apparently got the capability to generate 46 GW, currently they can only produce about 30GW

They're either using the lower demand in summer to carry out maintenance and sort out enough capacity to produce at least 36GW for the winter months

OR

They are only doing enough maintenance to try meet what is required for the short term, and will try "climb the hill when they get there"

I hope it's the first scenario, but my gut tells me it's the second, and it'll simply be a case of this is what we have, so make do with it. I.E, regular stage 3 and 4 load shedding

From this article it looks like the 1st scenario

http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Bleak-winter-on-cards-for-38m-over-Eskom-debt-20150410