Lockdown restrictions in South Africa can be extended by several weeks – Report

Napalm

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Jun 22, 2006
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Not enough tests are being done here in SA. I mean, we're in it for a month basically. Numbers gone up to 1749(Time as of this post).

A population of 58 to 65million people and only 58098 Tests Conducted sofar. (as of 07/04/2020)

Other country's sometimes do 10,000 or 20,000 or 50,000 tests per day. Nevermind not even 60,000 in a month.
 

Gordon_R

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Jul 5, 2009
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Not enough tests are being done here in SA. I mean, we're in it for a month basically. Numbers gone up to 1749(Time as of this post).

A population of 58 to 65million people and only 58098 Tests Conducted sofar. (as of 07/04/2020)

Other country's sometimes do 10,000 or 20,000 or 50,000 tests per day. Nevermind not even 60,000 in a month.
Without context your comment is meaningless. What is the purpose of testing?
1. To find people who are sick? Then what? Amost everyone is already in self-isolation. There is no specific treatment for Covid-19, and unnecessary hospitalisation has no effect on the final outcome.
2. The current infection rate in SA is less than 0.001%. This means you would have to sample 100,000 people to find one positive test. At R1000 per test, this is a complete waste of resources (R100m per positive test).
3. Community screening focuses on choosing those who display symptoms, and is more cost effective. This is slowly being rolled out.
4. Contact tracing looks at those who have had immediate contact with a known infected person. It has a postitive rate around 1 in 25, and is a highly effective use of resources.

Now that we have some terms of reference: What kind of testing do you actually have in mind?

P.S. My response is not directed at you personally, but I see this question asked way too often.
 

Lupus

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Apr 25, 2006
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22,810
Not enough tests are being done here in SA. I mean, we're in it for a month basically. Numbers gone up to 1749(Time as of this post).

A population of 58 to 65million people and only 58098 Tests Conducted sofar. (as of 07/04/2020)

Other country's sometimes do 10,000 or 20,000 or 50,000 tests per day. Nevermind not even 60,000 in a month.
We've done more testing than a lot of places, including Japan. But we would need 136 000 tests just to do our population in one year. Double that for 6 months, that's almost impossible in South Africa.
 

Paulsie

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Apr 6, 2020
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234
I think you are spot on. Which actually makes everything the government does into a charade!! Having said that, I think you will find the actual infection rate in SA is currently at least 3% (not 0.001%). Look at all positives over the number of tests conducted, not over a larger population.
 

Napalm

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Jun 22, 2006
Messages
2,605
Without context your comment is meaningless. What is the purpose of testing?
1. To find people who are sick? Then what? Amost everyone is already in self-isolation. There is no specific treatment for Covid-19, and unnecessary hospitalisation has no effect on the final outcome.
2. The current infection rate in SA is less than 0.001%. This means you would have to sample 100,000 people to find one positive test. At R1000 per test, this is a complete waste of resources (R100m per positive test).
3. Community screening focuses on choosing those who display symptoms, and is more cost effective. This is slowly being rolled out.
4. Contact tracing looks at those who have had immediate contact with a known infected person. It has a postitive rate around 1 in 25, and is a highly effective use of resources.

Now that we have some terms of reference: What kind of testing do you actually have in mind?

P.S. My response is not directed at you personally, but I see this question asked way too often.
What i'm refering to. is the Stats & the amount of tests we doing.

We see numbers and remember the government is acting and basing decisions on what is available visibly.
The problem is, you don't know...what you don't know.

The more tests are done, the bigger the picture. The more accurate the stats. USA/Italy/China did mass testing, even people in drive-by cars to get numbers and possibly detect or find that one person who didn't think they had it. Infact most COVID patients, said they don't know where they got it and wasn't aware they had it for 5 or more days.

My worry is, there's so many people not abiding by the rules. They walking around as if nothing is wrong. They catched so many people visiting other people for braai's etc. I'm worried this thing is spreading in the Forrest and you only see the wind blowing the tree tops. We not seeing whats going on beneath...
 

Chris_the_Brit

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Mar 6, 2004
Messages
29,541
Our 3 month lockdown scenario presented out of context - BCG

A BCG working document from more than a week ago, illustrating one scenario of how the COVID-19 virus might progress, has been circulating publicly without context or authorization from BCG.


As clearly stated throughout the document, the presentation is not intended to constitute or substitute for medical or safety advice. Nor should it be seen as a formal endorsement of or recommendation for a particular response. The scenario and projections contained in the document vary by 100-1,000x, and reflect one range of possible outcomes, with clear recognition of how things may unfold differently.
Management consultants covering their asses.
 

pinball wizard

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Joined
Feb 9, 2010
Messages
18,883
Yup, we'll all be poorer but alive.

I don't like the alternative.
We aren't all gonna die if there's no global crackdown, are we?

As usual, it's not an either or kind of scenario, which is the problem with the way crackdowns across the world are being implemented.
 

Drifter

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Dec 19, 2012
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19,268
I honestly think Ramapush will extend by two weeks, most countries did, even Tonga and Samoa.
 

impulse0157

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Joined
Apr 3, 2019
Messages
74
take smokes away from smokers and booz away from alcoholics = major increase in domestic violence. stupid gov didnt think things through.

Scotland has whiskey on their essential goods list lol
 

Paulsie

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Apr 6, 2020
Messages
234
Take the means of supporting oneself (business) and others away from people and make everyone poor. At the end of the day, the message of "Equality to All" is common both to the UN as well as our government
 

impulse0157

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Apr 3, 2019
Messages
74
Next time i see a crowd of hooligans breaking into a bottle store,ill sneak in to take some smokes.ill leave the cash for the smokes under the cash register because im no theif. thats how desperate i am for smokes. I mean i have been smoking everyday for 10 years and now i must just stop?**** that
 

impulse0157

Active Member
Joined
Apr 3, 2019
Messages
74
doubtful, in Scotland they spell it without the 'e', why would the Scots put Irish whiskey on the essential goods list when they have plenty of their own?
friends and family live there,also part of a 3d printing forum based in Scotland.yeah Whiskey is on their list.we had a discussion about booz and smokes in a lockdown.

i was told whiskey...could be all booz in general but yeah just making a point. no smokes for smokers,no booz for daily drinkers = domestic violence like SA is seeing now
 

Nicodeamus

Executive Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2006
Messages
7,850
Come on man. It's called 'exponential growth' - please go and read up on it, understand how it works, and then we can revisit this conversation. This isn't about a % of lives either.
its not exponential, its logistic. That is just falls.
 

Paulsie

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Joined
Apr 6, 2020
Messages
234
As a comparison - in the Czech Republic (where I am originally from), everyone had to wear a mask when outside. Masks are made at home using a sowing machine by just about anyone who can. People can go to work, provided that 2m distance is maintained. Old people shop between 8-10, everybody else afterwards (while keeping 2m distance). People are allowed to go out and exercise or walk (2 people max and keep distance). All employees or small business owners that cannot work get a monthly grant of 25,000CZK (approx 16,000ZAR). Restaurants can do deliveries or take-outs. City councils have a list of volunteer cell numbers available for when one cannot go out and get shopping or medication collections done. Just call and they will do it for you.

I realize that ours is a different country under different conditions, but just a comparison as to how some civilized countries (that we often compare ourselves against) deal with the situation.
 
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