MASSIVE GLOBAL COOLING process discovered as Paris climate deal looms

[Seriously]

'Could explain recent disagreements'

A team of top-level atmospheric chemistry boffins from France and Germany say they have identified a new process by which vast amounts of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are emitted into the atmosphere from the sea - a process which was unknown until now, meaning that existing climate models do not take account of it.

The effect of VOCs in the air is to cool the climate down, and thus climate models used today predict more warming than can actually be expected. Indeed, global temperatures have actually been stable for more than fifteen years, a circumstance which was not predicted by climate models and which climate science is still struggling to assmilate.

In essence, the new research shows that a key VOC, isoprene, is not only produced by living organisms (for instance plants and trees on land and plankton in the sea) as had previously been assumed. It is also produced in the "microlayer" at the top of the ocean by the action of sunlight on floating chemicals - no life being necessary. And it is produced in this way in very large amounts.

According to an announcement just issued by the German government's Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research:

Atmospheric chemists from France and Germany, however, can now show that isoprene can also be formed without biological sources in the surface film of the oceans by sunlight and so explain the large discrepancy between field measurements and models. The new identified photochemical reaction is therefore important to improve the climate models.

Global models at the moment assume total emissions of isoprene from all sources - trees, plants, plankton, the lot - of around 1.9 megatons per year. But, according to the new research, the newly discovered "abiotic" process releases as much as 3.5 megatons on its own - which "could explain the recent disagreements" between models and reality.

Interesting

More http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/0...ctor_discovered_ahead_of_paris_climate_talks/[/I]

 

[DrJohnZoidberg]

 

[BCO]

What "recent disagreements between models and reality"?

 

[c3n0byt3]

Many jumps made after the paper's facts. It would be more interesting to apply these new fluxes within the models, at the same time looking at how well the organic chemistry is really represented. There are MASSIVE generalizations and assumptions within the global chemistry models. Fair enough they achieve their purpose, but with these fine scale processes the generalizations will need to be reconsidered.

It should also be noted that while SOA production is likely, isoprene is also a precursor to ozone (great warming potential). So it really depends where in the world you are.

For interest, there will soon be measurements off Namibia looking at something very related.
Hopefully VOC measurements are on the cards.

 

[Ninja'd]

Must be cause of drinking all that Hunters.

 

[grok]

Indeed, global temperatures have actually been stable for more than fifteen years, a circumstance which was not predicted by climate models and which climate science is still struggling to assmilate.

Global warming is a LIE, what a SHOCK!

 

[w1z4rd]

What "recent disagreements between models and reality"?

+1

Im not sure what they are talking about there.

 

[Seriously]

+1

Im not sure what they are talking about there.

Indeed, global temperatures have actually been stable for more than fifteen years, a circumstance which was not predicted by climate models and which climate science is still struggling to assmilate.

FYI?

My take. Just imagine the temperature if it was not for the VOC's.

/Waiting for oceans to warm enough to release billions of tons of captured methane.

 

[BCO]

Indeed, global temperatures have actually been stable for more than fifteen years, a circumstance which was not predicted by climate models and which climate science is still struggling to assmilate.

My understanding is that the upward trend continues for global temperatures, as predicted by the models.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...aa-temperature-record-updates-and-the-hiatus/

 

[Arthur]

We've argued this El Reg story here: http://mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthr...scientists?p=16202430&viewfull=1#post16202430