More South Africans will likely quit their jobs and emigrate in the coming months: expert

[superlekkerza]

Ofcourse. All to the Cape Republic/Colony

Sofar the Cape Party, Cape Independence Movement, VF+, Cape Congress and DA all now call for greater autonomy and possibly a vote to seperate.

Even the ANC is now debating how to stop it, but the movement is growing faster than they can hope.

Biafra - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[azbob]

I am in a mid management position where I am being paid too much for the position I hold. I have 10+ years experience.

Now I can't move laterally to another company because I am too expensive...

You’re aware that you’re overpaid but not willing to take a pay cut elsewhere? Reminds me of Alexis Sanchez.

 

[Scary_Turtle]

You’re aware that you’re overpaid but not willing to take a pay cut elsewhere? Reminds me of Alexis Sanchez.

For the title I hold yes but I do far more then the title requires, which is why they give me money to stay......

Why would I want to take a pay cut unless I know that I can make more money in the long term, which isn't possible in a BEE environment?

Not sure who Alexis Sanchez is so your point is missed on me.

 

[Willie Trombone]

No, it actually means there is less demand in total, and that it is rapidly shrinking.

Only if you think like a grunt.

 

[Vrotappel]

How are they just going to emigrate though? Many of us would love to go if given the chance but the lack of job offers make it difficult.

I see people leaving every day. It is actually scary.

 

[JuliusSeizure]

I see people leaving every day. It is actually scary.

People will leave everyday and that happens in most countries but are you sure they are going for good?

 

[semaphore]

People will leave everyday and that happens in most countries but are you sure they are going for good?

Why would someone sell everything only to return ? When I leave I want to drop everything and anything that ties me to this country.

 

[cguy]

Only if you think like a grunt.

It’s basic economics. What you may be arguing for is that some people can do better by taking advantage of the crisis. This I agree with, however total demand goes down, which is generally bad for everyone in the long term.

 

[CTSA]

The vast majority don’t return.

Are there any stats confirming either way? Or are people simply saying "most are returning" or "most don't return" depending on their stance on emigration?

 

[obsidian86]

oh dear what a surprise


No one wants to live in a hellhole with a government exploiting the tax payers for their own benefit

 

[Vrotappel]

People will leave everyday and that happens in most countries but are you sure they are going for good?

I am in this position for 30 years now. Once the decision was announced on the change to breaking tax residency the figures are sky rocketing. People are taking themselves and their money out of SA at a rate I've never seen before.

It is scary.

 

[CTSA]

Once the decision was announced on the change to breaking tax residency the figures are sky rocketing. People are taking themselves and their money out of SA at a rate I've never seen before.

Can you provide those figures please? (As well as the source)

 

[Vrotappel]

Can you provide those figures please? (As well as the source)

No I cannot. I comment on what I see daily from my daily job. 10 years ago I saw one a month now I see 3 a day.

 

[cguy]

Are there any stats confirming either way? Or are people simply saying "most are returning" or "most don't return" depending on their stance on emigration?

There are several sources, usually collected by specific bodies. E.g., According to a published article, 32% of Doctors returned in the last 30 years. IT is almost certainly less than that, and it’s also not clear if this is front loaded (late 90’s and 2000 were more optimistic times).

Net emigration in SA has been positive since 1988.

 

[CTSA]

No I cannot. I comment on what I see daily from my daily job. 10 years ago I saw one a month now I see 3 a day.

What job do you have that you would see so many people emigrating?

There are several sources, usually collected by specific bodies. E.g., According to a published article, 32% of Doctors returned in the last 30 years. IT is almost certainly less than that, and it’s also not clear if this is front loaded (late 90’s and 2000 were more optimistic times).

Net emigration in SA has been positive since 1988.

Understood, but anyway can just write that. Can you provide sources please? Like that article for example (but preferably something that looks at general emigration, not sector-specific - lesser developed countries bleeding doctors to understaffed developed countries is not something specific to SA, always being the worst hit sector by emigration).

I'm probably old enough to remember that the late 90s were not more optimistic times than today (still remember the fear people had then). I would say the most optimistic period we've had is 2003-2011.

 

[cguy]

What job do you have that you would see so many people emigrating?



Understood, but anyway can just write that. Can you provide sources please? Like that article for example (but preferably something that looks at general emigration, not sector-specific - lesser developed countries bleeding doctors to understaffed developed countries is not something specific to SA, always being the worst hit sector by emigration).

I'm probably old enough to remember that the late 90s were not more optimistic times than today (still remember the fear people had then). I would say the most optimistic period we've had is 2003-2011.

Physician link: https://academic.oup.com/heapol/article-abstract/36/5/630/6199173?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Note that the OP article is actually about top talent. I do believe that a worthwhile consideration is whether or not those who stay are more skilled than those who return.

As an ex academic who has a large sampling of contacts from multiple graduating post-grad years, I would say very few of the most talented come back.

 

[Vrotappel]

What job do you have that you would see so many people emigrating?



Understood, but anyway can just write that. Can you provide sources please? Like that article for example (but preferably something that looks at general emigration, not sector-specific - lesser developed countries bleeding doctors to understaffed developed countries is not something specific to SA, always being the worst hit sector by emigration).

I'm probably old enough to remember that the late 90s were not more optimistic times than today (still remember the fear people had then). I would say the most optimistic period we've had is 2003-2011.

Work in tax.

 

[CTSA]

Physician link: https://academic.oup.com/heapol/article-abstract/36/5/630/6199173?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Note that the OP article is actually about top talent. I do believe that a worthwhile consideration is whether or not those who stay are more skilled than those who return.

As an ex academic who has a large sampling of contacts from multiple graduating post-grad years, I would say very few of the most talented come back.

Interesting source. Thank you very much! Although, again the healthcare professional sector tends to always to be the worst hit by immigration in developing countries (as hospitals in developed countries continuously need more doctors). Also, interestingly enough, I see the study says emigration of doctors from SA has declined six-fold between 1991 and 2017. Also, it says SA doctors also registered in foreign countries has fallen from 33.5% in 2005 to 21.6% in 2017. That's positive I would say, and I also think the article is trying to paint a more positive picture than what you're implying the article is stating.

I can't access the full article. Do you have by any have the full version? The article says that 31.5% of doctors have returned, but it has a very broad period: 1991-2017. For us that lived in the 90s know that many people that left in that decade left for very different reasons than those that are leaving today. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of those doctors would never return. I would like to see if the article mentions how many doctors that left after 2000 have returned.

Also, do you have any sources for other sectors? Or for general emigration figures?

Note that the OP article is actually about top talent. I do believe that a worthwhile consideration is whether or not those who stay are more skilled than those who return.

That would be a good point, except for the fact that it is literally impossible to prove either way. So a point like is simply to serve either side's prejudice.

 

[cguy]

Interesting source. Thank you very much! Although, again the healthcare professional sector tends to always to be the worst hit by immigration in developing countries (as hospitals in developed countries continuously need more doctors). Also, interestingly enough, I see the study says emigration of doctors from SA has declined six-fold between 1991 and 2017. Also, it says SA doctors also registered in foreign countries has fallen from 33.5% in 2005 to 21.6% in 2017. That's positive I would say, and I also think the article is trying to paint a more positive picture than what you're implying the article is stating.

I can't access the full article. Do you have by any have the full version? The article says that 31.5% of doctors have returned, but it has a very broad period: 1991-2017. For us that lived in the 90s know that many people that left in that decade left for very different reasons than those that are leaving today. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of those doctors would never return. I would like to see if the article mentions how many doctors that left after 2000 have returned.

Also, do you have any sources for other sectors? Or for general emigration figures?

Mostly Wikipedia, stats sites (statista, etc.). You can look up metrics such as “net immigration” and “return migration”.

That would be a good point, except for the fact that it is literally impossible to prove either way. So a point like is simply to serve either side's prejudice.

I agree it’s tricky, however, those who have better qualifications are certainly likely to do better than those who don’t, and are thus more likely to stay. I don’t think this deduction really requires empirical evidence to support it.

I do have my own sampling from the top of the pyramid due to my academic experience, that supports it. It’s far from anecdotal, but it’s not exactly a peer reviewed source either.

 

[koeks525]

High school teacher did this, he packed up his whole family and moved to Australia, 6 months later they were back.

Hayibo what a plot twist .

I wonder what the reasons were for the return. Was it as simple as poor planning, or was it something deeper, like cultural shock, or missing family?