More than 80% of Chinese testing kits give a false positive

Lupus

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Corona started in dec with 23k deaths to date globally, that's less than the CDC stats for US flu.
Flu in the US between 1st Oct to 14th March estimated 23 to 59000 in the US alone.
 

Nicodeamus

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The UK chief epidemiologist also admits that he is wrong.


He dropped his figures from 500 000 to 20 000.

Now that is one big fup of note.
 

Alan

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“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.
It undermined Boris so naturally it garnered unqualified acceptance. Not surprising at all
 

Gordon_R

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The UK chief epidemiologist also admits that he is wrong.


He dropped his figures from 500 000 to 20 000.

Now that is one big fup of note.
Link didn't work for me. Source paper published in New Scientist magazine:
 

Gordon_R

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Lets lift the lockdown!!! We do not need it!!!
The UK is not the same as SA in demographics or phase of the epidemic. An in any case the lockdown will still reduce transmission, and can be reviewed after 21 days. (I don't think its going to go away anytime soon).
 

konfab

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Interesting thread over here about the UK Kung flu

I wouldn't trust a single word from that guy.


His estimates are made from a model written 13 years ago and consists of thousands of lines of undocumented C. And he hasn't released the code, nor the data that he used to get the results.


Thousands of lines of undocumented and un-maintained code belongs in one place: the recycle bin.
 

Lupus

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The UK is not the same as SA in demographics or phase of the epidemic. An in any case the lockdown will still reduce transmission, and can be reviewed after 21 days. (I don't think its going to go away anytime soon).
Neither are we Italy, Spain or the US. It's very difficult to do any predictions for us. Especially since even the normal flu seasons don't effect us the same as it does other countries.
 

Nicodeamus

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Let me just understand this again, we shut down the UK economy because of a C code from 13 years ago.
 

Nerfherder

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23,079 corona deaths to date worldwide vs "23,000 – 59,000" flu deaths in the US since October.

Worldwide 290 000-650 000 influenza-related respiratory deaths according to the WHO's Global Influenza Strategy 2019-2030.
23,079 corona deaths to date worldwide vs "23,000 – 59,000" flu deaths in the US since October.
That number includes Corona Virus data so doesn't really show anything.

Have a look at the graph on this page: 500 k total hospitalisations and there is still two months left of the flu season, this with a global shutdown.
Worldwide 290 000-650 000 influenza-related respiratory deaths according to the WHO's Global Influenza Strategy 2019-2030.
I can't see that stat on the page you linked. It doesn't match with the data in the graph.
 

Hamish McPanji

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That number includes Corona Virus data so doesn't really show anything.

Have a look at the graph on this page: 500 k total hospitalisations and there is still two months left of the flu season, this with a global shutdown.

I can't see that stat on the page you linked. It doesn't match with the data in the graph.
Those are very much estimates. And the period it covers is 5.5 months, and the death rate probably doesn't escalate the way this does

I just did a calculation with both 7 day averages and 3 day averages and then calculated estimated death/month based on those averages. I also removed about 35 China deaths a day from beginning of march, as I didn't want it to skew the data:



At the beginning of march, based on the average death rate at the time (excl China), there would have been about 800-850 deaths a month. By mid March, that goes up to 10-14 thousand a month.

Currently, based on the 3 day average , that's about 75000 a month, hence for a 5.5 month season that's about 400 thousand deaths, 7 day average, about 320 thousand.
 
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