More than 900 confirmed coronavirus cases in South Africa

FourQueue

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Well, percentage wise that's not too bad of an increase - better than I expected anyway. But why are they not giving us the exact numbers and breakdowns?
 

JustAsk

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Well, percentage wise that's not too bad of an increase - better than I expected anyway. But why are they not giving us the exact numbers and breakdowns?
Its 900 cases, up with 191, still no deaths, 12 recoveries, 2 critical. You should not rely on the fcking SA media for reliable info. They could've just doublecheck on worldometer.

South Africa900+191 128882
 

Tander

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Its 900 cases, up with 191, still no deaths, 12 recoveries, 2 critical. You should not rely on the fcking SA media for reliable info. They could've just doublecheck on worldometer.

South Africa900+191 128882
Uhm.. where do you think the worldometer gets its data from?
 

rpm

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Its 900 cases, up with 191, still no deaths, 12 recoveries, 2 critical. You should not rely on the fcking SA media for reliable info. They could've just doublecheck on worldometer.
It is difficult to report on non-official numbers. Worldometer simply uses stats reported in the media - hence the 900 number. We know it is not 900 - we only know it is over 900.
 

Gordon_R

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Well, percentage wise that's not too bad of an increase - better than I expected anyway. But why are they not giving us the exact numbers and breakdowns?
Because eventually it will become like the telephone directory. Remember that due to delays in testing these figures are never exact, and represent a snapshot of the actual infections a day or two ago when the test sampling was done.

At this stage the epidemic has moved from travel related to local transmission, and increases will be exponential. The rate of growth will depend on social distancing, which already kicked in a few days ago, and will be closely monitored during the lockdown period.
 

Lupus

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Because eventually it will become like the telephone directory. Remember that due to delays in testing these figures are never exact, and represent a snapshot of the actual infections a day or two ago when the test sampling was done.

At this stage the epidemic has moved from travel related to local transmission, and increases will be exponential. The rate of growth will depend on social distancing, which already kicked in a few days ago, and will be closely monitored during the lockdown period.
Minus all the panic shoppers, which would spread it as well.
 

Temujin

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Well, percentage wise that's not too bad of an increase - better than I expected anyway. But why are they not giving us the exact numbers and breakdowns?
Not bad? At 27% that puts us at like 5k this time next week, and 10k in 10 days, 20k in 2 weeks
 

JustAsk

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It is difficult to report on non-official numbers. Worldometer simply uses stats reported in the media - hence the 900 number. We know it is not 900 - we only know it is over 900.
They use media and official gov data from countries where possible. Its better to report on what you know. Worldometer listed +191, taken from official sacoronavirus site, so that is what we know. If that figure is updated to more, then that becomes the news...at that time.

Most news reports on the virus is design to generate fear, there is no old skool boring approach to just inform.
 
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Gordon_R

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Yup. Also worldometer refuses to give a column for daily recoveries. Need to do the calculations yourself. Make it green fellas.
Recovery is a rather nebulous concept, since some people never develop serious symptoms, and many people are infected but never tested. Is someone recovered when they are discharged from ICU, or when they are fit to return to work?

Recovery also has limited statistical significance at this stage of the epidemic, the fraction of never infected is so close to 100% that any transmission will result in a new case. Only once "herd immunity" is reached does this changed. No country has come close to this yet.
 
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quovadis

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Recovery is a rather nebulous concept, since some people never develop serious symptoms, and many people are infected but never tested. Is someone recovered when they are discharged from ICU, or when they are fit to return to work?
In NICD terms recovery is defined as someone who has confirmed positive for COVID19 via testing, recovered and tested negative usually twice.
 

hj007

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Recovery is a rather nebulous concept, since some people never develop serious symptoms, and many people are infected but never tested. Is someone recovered when they are discharged from ICU, or when they are fit to return to work?

Recovery also has limited statistical significance at this stage of the epidemic, the fraction of never infected is so close to 100% that any transmission will result in a new case. Only once "herd immunity" is reached does this changed. No country has come close to this yet.
The US is going for herd immunity at this rate
 

quovadis

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Well, percentage wise that's not too bad of an increase - better than I expected anyway. But why are they not giving us the exact numbers and breakdowns?
As explained many times there is a lag between the case work the NICD performs in collating the information regarding patients and the statistical breakdowns in lieu of keeping the country updated in terms of cases. There is already a delay/backlog in testing - it's preferable to make the information available as soon as possible as it becomes available.
 
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