More than 900 confirmed coronavirus cases in South Africa

quovadis

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Our first reported cases came out quite a while back (5 Mar) and many countries on a similar timeline had some impacts to their mortality rate.

Could this be a case of simply being economical with the truth to keep spirits up and not create despondency?
Our first reported cases were people in their 30s and in good health. We have 2 currently in ICU - lets hope they recover.
 

Gordon_R

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Why no deaths yet? Not to sound morbid this must be the biggest ratio of infections to deaths globally.
Hard to say, but the most likely explanation is that all of the first wave of cases were travel related. People who travel are generally fit and healthy, and do not have pre-existing medical conditions. For this category the mortality rate is certainly below 1%, though we do not know the exact numbers.

The second wave will be a broader spectrum of the population, i.e. contacts with the first wave. These are still likely to be fit enough to attend social get-togethers, though may include the elderly and less mobile. The mortality rate in this category may be higher, but many of those cases have not gone through the full illness yet (and may still die).

The third wave is when things get really bad, when it spreads to the elderly and already sick. Fortunately most of these should already have been in lockdown, and may be relatively safe for the meantime.

The biggest unknown category is those with HIV and/or TB. We have no idea what will happen to them, but the 21 day lockdown may prevent further spread.

In a global context, SA is one of the few countries with a high number of contact tests, and thus perceived low mortality rate. Other countries with supposedly higher mortality rates may just be a statistical artifact, with ten times the number of infected people to confirmed tests. Remember that there is a global shortage of tests, in every country (rich and poor).
 

Daruk

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Hard to say, but the most likely explanation is that all of the first wave of cases were travel related. People who travel are generally fit and healthy, and do not have pre-existing medical conditions. For this category the mortality rate is certainly below 1%, though we do not know the exact numbers.

The second wave will be a broader spectrum of the population, i.e. contacts with the first wave. These are still likely to be fit enough to attend social get-togethers, though may include the elderly and less mobile. The mortality rate in this category may be higher, but many of those cases have not gone through the full illness yet (and may still die).

The third wave is when things get really bad, when it spreads to the elderly and already sick. Fortunately most of these should already have been in lockdown, and may be relatively safe for the meantime.

The biggest unknown category is those with HIV and/or TB. We have no idea what will happen to them, but the 21 day lockdown may prevent further spread.

In a global context, SA is one of the few countries with a high number of contact tests, and thus perceived low mortality rate. Other countries with supposedly higher mortality rates may just be a statistical artifact, with ten times the number of infected people to confirmed tests. Remember that there is a global shortage of tests, in every country (rich and poor).
To count deaths, you have to count infections. We're not doing that, we're telling people to go home and sleep it off unless you're at risk of death.... no doubt many people are just not getting tested.
 

quovadis

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To count deaths, you have to count infections. We're not doing that, we're telling people to go home and sleep it off unless you're at risk of death.... no doubt many people are just not getting tested.
Private labs are processing post mortem samples already .
 

Lukitz

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Feb 23, 2020
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This is the kind of local transmission that had to be stamped out:
Karma is a b1tch, maybe he shouldn't pray the corona away and have those tourists to infect all those other people at his Jerusalem Prayer Breakfast gathering for nothing but self gain. People like him make it worse with his lack of responsibility and his complete disregard for others.
 

carnagelan

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Jul 4, 2015
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Those are the confirmed cased. Sure there is 1000s that never went to be tested....just my guess
 

netstrider

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Nov 1, 2006
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All this means is that 927 people qualified for:
  • Having recently traveled by plane to high risk country / (ies).
  • Been in contact with someone as per above.
  • Had temps 38 degrees C+ and severe breathing difficulties and a dry cough.
Basically the rest of the population have no idea whether they have it, whether they are imagining it, whether they have the flu (who has the flu at this time?) or if it is babbelas.
 
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