My prediction regarding schools reopening and when the crisis will be over for SA

antowan

Honorary Master
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Nov 1, 2003
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According to my calculations, which can be wrong, the following is currently valid for SA until new data reveals something different.

1. Schools are unlikely to open before September 2020.
2. Schools will reopen when the virus cannot overrun hospitals anymore. It is expected to happen around September.
3. The crisis will be over for SA around the 20th of December 2020 when the virus will start to struggle to find new hosts. When around 60 to 70% of South Africans have already been infected.

Opinions?
 

2021

Executive Member
Joined
Jan 22, 2012
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9,806
According to my calculations, which can be wrong, the following is currently valid for SA until new data reveals something different.

1. Schools are unlikely to open before September 2020.
2. Schools will reopen when the virus cannot overrun hospitals anymore. It is expected to happen around September.
3. The crisis will be over for SA around the 20th of December 2020 when the virus will start to struggle to find new hosts. When around 60 to 70% of South Africans have already been infected.

Opinions?

What are the calculations you used here to come to this conclusion?
 

antowan

Honorary Master
Joined
Nov 1, 2003
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13,025
What are the calculations your used here to come to this conclusion?

The current average daily increase in confirmed cases at 4% extrapolated until it reaches the expected 60% threshold. 60% and 70% will happen so close to one another that they don't make much difference to the date.

Then the September date was calculated using bed capacity as revealed by the minister and a 21 day bed rotation period per patient.
 

bwana

MyBroadband
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Feb 23, 2005
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School restarts for my kids tomorrow albeit with in their own virtual classrooms.

There would be zero purpose for schools to reopen in September except to act as [a very expensive] daycare.
 

Lupus

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 25, 2006
Messages
38,671
You have kids at school ?
I've got, he's been in school since 3 months so 8 years now and yes he's brought some sicknesses home, but if the kids practice good hygiene as we've been drilling into them this last month it should improve.
 

daveza

Honorary Master
Joined
Apr 5, 2004
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45,253
So school sports back to normal as well ?

Assembly, all those teachers bunched together on stage, choir... hey, what could go wrong.
 
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