New coronavirus stats in South Africa possible bad news for the lockdown

rustypup

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Basically it look like we will be in lockdown till there is a cure.
1) Lockdown was a complete farce from the start. We're "flattening the curve" to protect the least number, and least productive, of people and destroying our economy and tax base in order to do so - which will guaranteed pay enormous dividends in future deaths from a whole horde of social dysfunctions that will result.
2) The likelihood of a magical cure in the near future is so remote as to be magical thinking.
3) Once borders re-open we will be playing COVID-19 boogaloo again.

We have delayed onset, at enormous cost in lives and futures, whilst resolving nothing.
 

Gordon_R

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The following text was included in the OP article by @rpm:
It should be noted that Karim’s criteria look at passive screening only. Should a significant number of cases this week be the result of active screening, this number may be reduced.

The breakdown of passive and active testing cases is, however, not provided by the Department of Health.

For this comparison MyBroadband therefore used the total number of new daily cases – the same number which Karim used for his calculations over the past five weeks.
Edit: My interpretation is slightly different (posted above), but we will have to see the numbers and decision at the end of the week (18 Apr).

Edit: It would be grossly unreasonable if the entire country were kept on lockdown for another week, because of lack of hygiene protocols at a few hospitals and prisons. That is not the intent of the proposal at all...
 
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Ken Nakamura

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1) Lockdown was a complete farce from the start. We're "flattening the curve" to protect the least number, and least productive, of people and destroying our economy and tax base in order to do so - which will guaranteed pay enormous dividends in future deaths from a whole horde of social dysfunctions that will result.
2) The likelihood of a magical cure in the near future is so remote as to be magical thinking.
3) Once borders re-open we will be playing COVID-19 boogaloo again.

We have delayed onset, at enormous cost in lives and futures, whilst resolving nothing.
ANC did as its masters told it to... nothing to see, move along
 

Bobbin

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You have obviously never been to that shyte hole Richards Bay
Ah yes good ol' John Ross College. Had my share of the experience :ROFL::ROFL:

Jeeze, back then the only entertainment was the new boardwalk shopping center and that was it! Wonder what it's like nowadays.
 

eg2505

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Can somebody explain to me, how is it car guards and beggers at robots are essential workers?

Or is it a case, of all animals are equal, except some are more equal than others.
 

richjdavies

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Can somebody explain to me, how is it car guards and beggers at robots are essential workers?

Or is it a case, of all animals are equal, except some are more equal than others.
Some have always acted on the edge of the law...why would this be different.
 

John Tempus

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So the more testing we are doing we are still well below the original estimates even as we increase testing and our daily confirmed cases is still below the average of the first 2 weeks yet they are making note of this as bad news.

Wtf did any of these people expect ? Do they not understand averages and the fact our averages is either the same or lower with more testing than before.

Again these donkeys in charge doesn't seem to grasp even the most basic concept that 2506 confirmed cases out of a population of 57million+ and still a daily increase of <100 on average even with increased testing.

If we extrapolate the current testing across a possible entire population the confirmed numbers would still be incredibly low.
 

Fargle

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South Africans called for the lockdown. They didn't bother to do any fact checking or investigative research.
They listened to the media hype and bought it and now they're looking at the stats and wondering why they're in a self induced hell.
The **** hasn't even begun to hit the fan yet, and it won't be the virus doing the damage...
 

Gordon_R

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It seems that Prof Karim himself is not clear on the difference between passive and active cases:

The version quoted by News24 seems illogical and contradictory:
But a key issue Karim and the committee was grappling with, was differentiating between "passive and active cases".

Passive cases refer to those detected in the course of the disease spread, in other words people who showed symptoms and presented themselves for testing.

Passive cases are now being identified as screening and testing is upscaled, presenting a challenge in gaining an understanding on community transmission.
They seem to be doing plenty of screening, which should produce some useful data:
This week, Mkhize confirmed about 460 000 people have been screened so far, adding the screening resulted in around 4 000 tests.
 
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ToxicBunny

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Based on those few numbers from Mkhize... we're definitely not looking bad at all.

They've screen 460000 people, and that resulted in 4000 tests being done. So give or take a 1% conversion from population to testing, so we would need to do around 600000 tests in total, and we seem to be averaging around 3% positive cases from the testing, so we may end up at around 18000 positive cases from the 56m..

(I say this with a huge amount of sarcasm, since this is monumentally oversimplified, but still)
 

Polymathic

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Based on those few numbers from Mkhize... we're definitely not looking bad at all.

They've screen 460000 people, and that resulted in 4000 tests being done. So give or take a 1% conversion from population to testing, so we would need to do around 600000 tests in total, and we seem to be averaging around 3% positive cases from the testing, so we may end up at around 18000 positive cases from the 56m..

(I say this with a huge amount of sarcasm, since this is monumentally oversimplified, but still)
Except for the fact that screening won't be able to spot asymptomatic cases and people in the asymptomatic phase of the infection.
 

ToxicBunny

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Except for the fact that screening won't be able to spot asymptomatic cases and people in the asymptomatic phase of the infection.
As I said... huge amount of sarcasm due to the over simplification....

And yes, those numbers could skyrocket over night, but as it stands right now we're not seeing this country crushing infection rate that was expected...
 

2012

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This will be an inevitable death for a lot of people whether it’s the virus or starvation or rioting. So the lockdown or extension thereof will undeniably worsen the situation.
Let's do all three! Riots go on killing people and then spreading the virus while destroying the food/medical supply chain.
 

ggs

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"...the average number of new daily coronavirus cases..." Professor Salim Abdool Karim
how on earth can you figure that one... what would the formula be... as we don't have the criteria for this any hocus pocus will we marketed as the truth, worst still, 'scientific', and will become policy
 
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