New water restriction tariffs hit Cape Town: what you need to know

[Rouxenator]

http://niwis.dws.gov.za/niwis2/SurfaceWaterStorage

this might help get you started.

can zoom in and see all the dams and levels.

No need to zoom when I can physically go there.

But what is CoCT plan with regards to depleting their sources?

 

[DeathStrike]

No need to zoom when I can physically go there.

But what is CoCT plan with regards to depleting their sources?

so go and take pics for us.

 

[Rouxenator]

so go and take pics for us.

Will do, just provide me with CoCT backed figures of what the level should be in contrast to previous ones so I can eat my hat.

 

[Gordon_R]

http://niwis.dws.gov.za/niwis2/SurfaceWaterStorage

Very 'Flashy' site, but IMO all the information is better presented in the CoCT weekly water dashboard: http://resource.capetown.gov.za/doc...ity research reports and review/damlevels.pdf

That's all I need to completely debunk this.

Unfortunately some people are not interested in facts, which are publicly available, and continue to drive an agenda which I can best describe as s***stirring (for personal reasons), which contribute nothing constructive to a complex discussion.

Edit: My response to this can be described by: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice."

It recommends a way of eliminating unlikely explanations for a phenomenon (a philosophical razor).

 

[HavocXphere]

Here you go - NASA imaging

The one you're repeatedly observing also happens to be the one that isn't in trouble....

Hence the whole "but the one near me looks fine" spiel not being particularly relevant.

 

[Rouxenator]

Yeah, I know. Also I know the completely legit reasons for doing so.

My challenge still is this. Predict the rate at which the major dam supplies will run down prior to day zero and I will show you (nothing new) bull shiz politics.

 

[HavocXphere]

Yeah, I know. Also I know the completely legit reasons for doing so.

My challenge still is this. Predict the rate at which the major dam supplies will run down prior to day zero and I will show you (nothing new) bull shiz politics.

huh?

The rate at which they run down seems pretty predictable to me? Don't see why the math would be particularly difficult.

 

[Rouxenator]

Yeah, if only I could have the true figures. Look, it is well known the figures public is fed is skewed to get lowed figures.

 

[HavocXphere]

Yeah, if only I could have the true figures. Look, it is well known the figures public is fed is skewed to get lowed figures.

"it is well known" - uh no actually this is the first I hear of the figures being manipulated.

Source to support this ahem theory?

 

[Gordon_R]

Here you go - NASA imaging

The one you're repeatedly observing also happens to be the one that isn't in trouble....

Hence the whole "but the one near me looks fine" spiel not being particularly relevant.

ATTACH 495487

Thanks! The animated image and text on the NASA website are worth looking at in close detail: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91649

IMO this whole thread could be 'locked', and you would learn more from this one article (and links), than 279 pages of waffle:

This trio of images shows how the three successive dry years took a toll on Cape Town’s water system. Voëlvlei, the second largest reservoir, has dropped to 18 percent of capacity. Some of the smaller reservoirs like the Berg River and Wemmershoek are still relatively full, but they store only a small fraction of the city’s water. One of the largest reservoirs in the area—Brandvlei—does not supply water to Cape Town; its water is used by farmers for irrigation.

The line chart below details how water levels in the six key reservoirs have changed since 2013. Though the reservoirs are replenished each winter as the rains arrive, the trend at almost all of them has been downward. The one exception is Upper Steenbras, which holds about 4 percent of the city’s water and has been kept full because it is also used to generate electricity during peak demand. Also, the city is likely drawing down the largest reservoirs first to minimize how much water is lost to evaporation.

Population growth and a lack of new infrastructure has exacerbated the current water shortage. Between 1995 and 2018, the Cape Town’s population swelled by roughly 80 percent. During the same period, dam storage increased by just 15 percent.

References
City of Cape Town (2018) Dam Levels. Accessed January 29, 2018.
City of Cape Town (2018) Day Zero. Accessed January 29, 2018.
Daily Maverick (2018, January 22) From the Inside: The Countdown to Day Zero. Accessed January 29, 2018.
Ground Up (2017) Cape Town’s water crisis. Accessed January 29, 2018.
Muller, M. (2017) Understanding Cape Town's Water Crisis. Civil Engineering. Accessed January 29, 2018.
National Integrated Water Information System (2018) Surface Water Storage. Accessed January 29, 2018.
South African Weather Service (2017, January 26) Seasonal forecasts under the current drought conditions in the Western Cape. Accessed January 29, 2018.
University of Cape Town (2018) The Big Six Monitor. Accessed January 29, 2018.
University of Cape Town (2018, January 23) Five signs that Day Zero may be averted. Accessed January 29, 2018.
Water Shedding Western Cape Why is everyone so worked up if Steenbras dam is full? Accessed January 29, 2018.
Weather Underground (2018, January 19) It’s True: Cape Town’s Water Supply Is Three Months Away from a Shutdown. Accessed January 29, 2018.
Western Cape Government (2017, October 30) The Cape Water Crisis — FAQs and honest answers. Accessed January 29, 2018.

BTW, NASA is not given to conspiracy theories (unless you believe the Trumpenfuhrer).

 

[Stefanmuller]

Interesting pictures from NASA. Obviously the depth and surface area/volume of the different dams and the rate of "climb" to the rim of each dam will depend on how much shrinkage can be seen in the pics.

I know Voelvlei is a very shallow dam with shallow or flat sides. Its profile looks like s shallow saucer. The same with Theewaterskloof which has many shallower parts. These shallow high surface area dams suffer more from evaporation as well and a drop in water level exposes shallow areas that can be seen when driving past or in aerial images.

Dams like Bergrivier are deep with small surface area to volume. More shaped like a cone or upside down triangle. Less evaporation and a drop in levels means little drop in area.

 

[Rouxenator]

"it is well known" - uh no actually this is the first I hear of the figures being manipulated.

Source to support this ahem theory?

You won't find a source. They won't let you. If any word gets out what the actually figures are people will just up their usages and then we would really be stuffed.

 

[Archer]

"it is well known" - uh no actually this is the first I hear of the figures being manipulated.

Source to support this ahem theory?

I'd imagine the source is somewhere around the thumb region

First there is no issue
Then the numbers aren't real
Then there would be an issue if everyone used water 'normally'

 

[PeterBee]

Thanks! The animated image and text on the NASA website are worth looking at in close detail: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91649

IMO this whole thread could be 'locked', and you would learn more from this one article (and links), than 279 pages of waffle:

BTW, NASA is not given to conspiracy theories (unless you believe the Trumpenfuhrer).

But even NASA has apparently followed the facile mainstream media habit of endlessly repeating what was initially fed to them by "scientific experts".....without thinking or questioning or cross checking, which is what this thread has done many times, and for which I am very thankful.

Quote from Nasa report :

"During the preceding year [2014], the weather station at Cape Town airport tallied 682 millimeters (27 inches) of rain (515 mm is normal), making it one of the wettest years in decades. However, rains faltered in 2015, with just 325 mm falling. The next year, with 221 mm, was even worse. In 2017, the station recorded just 157 mm of rain."

Now if Cape Town received 157mm in 2017, we would look something like the Kalahari desert. Where did NASA get that rainfall figure from ?

From this report is where :
http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/2017/08/28/how-severe-is-this-drought-really/

"the 1977-2015 mean of the accumulated rainfall at the end of the year (i.e. on 31 Dec), or simply the mean annual rainfall, is 506mm. My crude guess of the 2017 total is thus 31% of that, i.e. 157mm."

So the 157mm was not actual rainfall, NASA used a guestimate, although scientifically calculated.

The actual rainfall for CT Airport in 2017 was 276mm. The previous years rainfall also look suspiciously low, but the SA Weather Service regards these figures as state secrets, we are not allowed to know.

Just who can you trust these days?.

 

[StrontiumDog]

Here we go :
https://m.news24.com/MyNews24/cape-town-water-crisis-could-palmiet-save-us-from-day-zero-20180126

Has anyone in a position of authority looked into this?

A possible solution for day zero?
With Day Zero looming we need all the solutions we can find even if they only buy us a few more days. In terms of the above information the following question comes up. What is the level of the Kogelberg dam right now?
I am unable to verify the level of this dam, it is strangely not on the DWS website, nor on the CoCT website.
The Kogelberg dam holds a potential 19 300 000 cubic meters of water, if (depending on levels) we could pump even 5 million cubic meters of water via Palmiet we could buy an extra 10 days with which to hold back Day Zero — Is this not worth considering?
Do you know more about this dam? If so, please let me know!
If there is even a small chance that this dam is even half full it’s something that should be at least on the discussion table, let's get the answers! We need to defeat Day Zero through action. Saving water alone is not enough.

 

[Gordon_R]

https://www.news24.com/MyNews24/cape-town-water-crisis-could-palmiet-save-us-from-day-zero-20180126

Has anyone in a position of authority looked into this?

Very likely someone has looked into it, but whether they will get permission to use it is another matter. The water belongs to another jurisdiction (not part of the WCWSS), and is part of an agreement for pumped-storage hydro-electricity generation. The council have no control over this dam, it is run by DWA, and Eskom might have something to say as well!

There is actually quite a lot of potential water available, and many ways will be tried to eke it out further. You will not hear a message such as: "We haved sourced some extra water, so Day Zero is actually 10 days later than we told you yesterday". This would send the wrong kind of signal, and discourage conservation.

We are (almost) in a state of conflict, and Truth is the first casualty of war. Do not believe everything you are told, but also do not assume that there will be miraculous solutions...

 

[PeterBee]

Very likely someone has looked into it, but whether they will get permission to use it is another matter. The water belongs to another jurisdiction (not part of the WCWSS), and is part of an agreement for pumped-storage hydro-electricity generation. The council have no control over this dam, it is run by DWA, and Eskom might have something to say as well!

I think this is the dam mentioned by Mmusi Maimane earlier this week - the City will be supplied from Kogelberg dam - 67 Ml per day from February, for 60 days.

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/N...imane-20180130

Maimane also announced that the City had secured an additional 67 million litres a day for a period of approximately 60 days, starting from early February.

"But now, more than half will be available from early February. This water will be transferred from the Palmiet-Kogelberg dam, which has had excellent rainfall and is full

 

[Gordon_R]

I think this is the dam mentioned by Mmusi Maimane earlier this week - the City will be supplied from Kogelberg dam - 67 Ml per day from February, for 60 days.

https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/N...imane-20180130

Thanks, need a FAQ for this thread!

P.S. Broken link again: https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/...-drop-in-water-pressure-soon-maimane-20180130
(You need to copy the URL, not the quoted text.)

Additional 67 litres secured

Maimane also announced that the City had secured an additional 67 million litres a day for a period of approximately 60 days, starting from early February.

The target had initially been an extra 120 million litres by May.

LOL at News24 fact checkers and sub-editors! Not sure what the 120Ml means, per day, or over what period?

67Ml for 60 days amounts to 4000Ml, or 4 million m³. The Kogelberg Dam capacity is 19,3 million m³, so this may not be the same source at all. Perhaps only a fraction of the water is being released before Day Zero, the rest to follow afterwards?

Followup: Just heard on the radio that some of the extra 4000Ml will come from the Eikenhof dam, released by the Grabouw farmers union(?)

 

[zizo911]

So I decided to take a drive to Theewaterskloof... the situation is really bad. All that can be seen is sand and shore.

 

[Enzo Matrix]

So I decided to take a drive to Theewaterskloof... the situation is really bad. All that can be seen is sand and shore.

But Rouxenatour said we making it up so cant be no water?