Even so, these things take time to set up and develop. Most likely at least a year I would have thought. Say the arabs or a rabs as the yanks call them, stopped exporting oil. I can't see the US/West surviving for 6 months on the stocks available to them that they currently hold.
Every year the worlds energy consumption increases and while oil production also increases, it's not enough to keep up with demand and eventually the knife edge the developed world walks with oil production/consumption will slip and there will be major trouble ahead.
This is the whole problem. Currently the status quo suits everyone reasonably well, oil comes in from arabia and props up US comsumption. The US is dependent on this import. It has the ability to possibly, for a while at least suppliment it's resources with the Canadian shale deposits, but if the arabian oil ceased tomorrow, do you really think that they could get operations up and running (this inludes an already weakened refinery system) to cover the short fall before reserves run out?
As soon as word hit the steets the arabs have stopped supplying oil, there would be panic buying etc depleting reserves even more..