The cruise time from what I could find is anywhere from 6 -8 days, that 10 day figure is when it was identified. It's almost like a virus with exponential growth would infect more people the longer they are exposed to it, like say a cruise and then further quarantine after that.
Point being 26/27 were crew, they don't get off at the end of the cruise. guess time will tell.
As some one in the medical field you must surely understand that even basic sanitation is better than no sanitation? Go read up on the 'Covid Mill'. We can also be sure that lesson were learned from that cruise that is now being applied to this instance.
So in the medical field and have worked on the cruise ships ( Sun Princess ), and have a friend and colleague who was Snr Doc on Ruby Princess when they had their outbreak and was screwed over by the Aussie authorities - so have quite an intimate knowledge of the scenarios.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
So in the medical field and have worked on the cruise ships ( Sun Princess ), and have a friend and colleague who was Snr Doc on Ruby Princess when they had their outbreak and was screwed over by the Aussie authorities - so have quite an intimate knowledge of the scenarios.
Cruise ships are notorious for viral epidemics - norovirus and influenza. And therefore had policies and practices already in place a long time prior to Covid, so I can assure you there was a lot more than "basic sanitation" going on on the Diamond princess.
No sure where that R0 came from but a R0 of 14 would have burnt through everyone on that ship very quickly.
I have found this which sounds more reasonable?
"The Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of R0 was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship. The median with 95% confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06-2.52) estimated by the bootstrap resampling method. The probable number of new cases for the next ten days would gradually increase, and the estimated cumulative cases would reach 1514 (1384-1656) at the tenth day in the future. However, if R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced to 1081 (981-1177) and 758 (697-817), respectively."
Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis - PubMed
The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06-2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The future daily incidence and probable outbreak size is largely dependent on the change of R0. Unless strict infection management and control are taken...
The image of the epidemic curve gives credence to your suggestion that perhaps we need to wait another week until comparing the outbreaks.
EDIT: Just to add whenever we talk about asymptomatic infection, just a caveat - it usually refers to asymptomatic at the time of testing, often in these type scenarios they are really presymptomatic.
The basic reproduction rate was initially 4 times higher on-board compared to thein the epicentre in Wuhan, but the countermeasures lowered it substantially. Based on the modeled initial
of 14.8, we estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 (79%) would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases, and lowered the
to 1.78. We showed that an early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons in their incubation time.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Not sure if this has been posted on one of the other threads - been trying to keep tabs on them all but one needs 2hrs a day to stay up to date these days.
Also see for interest, Covid cases spiking in Israel:
Health officials predict thousands of seriously ill COVID patients within month
Bennett reportedly agrees to expand hospital capacity after being presented with numbers showing hospitalizations quadrupling by mid-September; funding for plan unclearwww.timesofisrael.com
Israeli Data Suggests Possible Waning in Effectiveness of Pfizer Vaccine
The new numbers still show overwhelmingly strong protection against severe disease but diminished effectiveness against infection.www.nytimes.com
So in the medical field and have worked on the cruise ships ( Sun Princess ), and have a friend and colleague who was Snr Doc on Ruby Princess when they had their outbreak and was screwed over by the Aussie authorities - so have quite an intimate knowledge of the scenarios.
Cruise ships are notorious for viral epidemics - norovirus and influenza. And therefore had policies and practices already in place a long time prior to Covid, so I can assure you there was a lot more than "basic sanitation" going on on the Diamond princess.
No sure where that R0 came from but a R0 of 14 would have burnt through everyone on that ship very quickly.
I have found this which sounds more reasonable?
"The Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of R0 was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship. The median with 95% confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06-2.52) estimated by the bootstrap resampling method. The probable number of new cases for the next ten days would gradually increase, and the estimated cumulative cases would reach 1514 (1384-1656) at the tenth day in the future. However, if R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced to 1081 (981-1177) and 758 (697-817), respectively."
Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis - PubMed
The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06-2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The future daily incidence and probable outbreak size is largely dependent on the change of R0. Unless strict infection management and control are taken...
The image of the epidemic curve gives credence to your suggestion that perhaps we need to wait another week until comparing the outbreaks.
EDIT: Just to add whenever we talk about asymptomatic infection, just a caveat - it usually refers to asymptomatic at the time of testing, often in these type scenarios they are really presymptomatic.
www.tiktok.com
joetimm116 (@joetimm116) on TikTok
joetimm116 (@joetimm116) has created a short video on TikTok with music original sound.
Universities will be out of business soon. Just get your doctorate on Tik Tok.
Mind explaining what part of the video upsets you?joetimm116 (@joetimm116) on TikTok
joetimm116 (@joetimm116) has created a short video on TikTok with music original sound.
Discussing anything negative about the vaccines has been forbidden by the establishment, so that's off limits in almost all places on the internet. Even without censorship, a mob of vaccine police will be ready to pounce and attempt to discredit anything which could even be perceived as not aligned with the narrative. Any attempt at discussion will be shutdown before anyone can debate anything.
The part where he regrets getting all his vaccines, and warns everyone who isn't vaccinated to stand their ground and not get it, because he now has severe issues that he never had before taking the vaccines and his body can barely function.
Nonsense, look at the opinions on this thread. But deleting discussions is unnecesary.
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