Novel CoronaVirus (COVID-19) Updates & Discussion 2

elf_lord_ZC5

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Actually, I have. I also have many relatives spread amongst Asian countries (Does not make me an expert). Yes, face mask wearing is more common than the west but it was usually worn when people are already sick to prevent others from getting infected. It’s a bit different with covid-19 since a lot of people are asymptomatic for long periods of time. Now it’s compulsory to masks all the time in public. It’s all about reducing the spread of infection.

If you ever been to a Far East nation you will know how dense the cities are, there’s no way social distancing works there without the country operating normally. You have to wear masks to prevent people from breathing and coughing right by your face. South Korea, HK, Singapore, Taiwan faced the initial outbreak and curbed it without draconian lockdowns. All pro face mask wearing.
It is immeasurably easier to tell a population that has a historical high usage of face masks to do so all the time and achieve compliance. Not so here, where 3/4 of the population think Corona is a hoax.
 

2012

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It is immeasurably easier to tell a population that has a historical high usage of face masks to do so all the time and achieve compliance. Not so here, where 3/4 of the population think Corona is a hoax.
Corona is a hoax made by SA government to allow them to enforce control and start the dictatorship. It was in my echo chamber anti-gov whatapps group so it must be true! Tell all your friends!
 

[)roi(]

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Is Coronavirus as deadly as they say?
Stanford Health Policy's Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya write in this Wall Street Journal editorial that current estimates about the COVID-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

"If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

"Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate — 2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, 2 million to 4 million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases."

"The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertainbecause available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills 2 million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far."


For example:
If you use the information provided on www.covidtracker.com for example:
  • China: 81,736 confirmed to have covid-19 and 3,291 dead -- which equates to a 4% mortality
  • Italy: 74,386 confirmed to have covid-19 and 7,503 dead -- which equates to a 10% mortality
  • US: 69,197 confirmed to have covid-19 and 1,050 dead -- which equates to a 1.5% mortality
  • South Korea: 9,241 confirmed to have covid-19 and 131 dead -- which equates to a 1.4% mortality
The huge variation in the mortality rates is strange; with some saying that the reason why both China and Italy are higher is because of a larger group of older people in the affected areas.

Professor Bhattacharya however says he believes the ratios are wrong, because of selection bias in the testing and the actual mortality rates could be orders of magnitude lower i.e. the world is on a panic and its not substantiated by valid data.

He reasoned that in Italy's case the real mortality rates could be as low as 0.06% i.e. no more deadly than the yearly flu.

Basically today the world tends to only test those who have flu like symptoms, and hence a large portion of the population are never tested, and like the flu, many people could have been exposed to covid-19 but their immune systems were quickly able to build antibodies and hence they had little or no flu symptoms. If these people were added into the mix then like the flu the mortality rates would be significantly less by an order of 10 or more.

To address this selection bias problem; Stanford university has already developed a test for covid-19 antibodies which they will use to do a random study in California to assess the real % of the population that has covid-19 antibodies -- only then will we have a better idea of the real mortality % of covid-19.

The insanity around covid-19 is proving to be far more contagious than the virus; because who would have thought that, for example:
people would be fighting over toilet paper, governments would shutter entire economies and even want to prosecute people for attempted murder because they're not adhering to self quarantining.
 
Last edited:

flippakitten

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Is Coronavirus as deadly as they say?



For example:
If you use the information provided on www.covidtracker.com for example:
  • China: 81,736 confirmed to have covid-19 and 3,291 dead -- which equates to a 4% mortality
  • Italy: 74,386 confirmed to have covid-19 and 7,503 dead -- which equates to a 10% mortality
  • US: 69,197 confirmed to have covid-19 and 1,050 dead -- which equates to a 1.5% mortality
  • South Korea: 9,241 confirmed to have covid-19 and 131 dead -- which equates to a 1.4% mortality
The huge variation in the mortality rates is strange; with some saying that the reason why both China and Italy are higher is because of a larger group of older people in the affected areas.

Professor Bhattacharya however says he believes the ratios are wrong, because of selection bias in the testing and the actual mortality rates could be orders of magnitude lower i.e. the world is on a panic and its not substantiated by valid data.

He reasoned that in Italy's case the real mortality rates could be as low as 0.06% i.e. no more deadly than the yearly flu.

Basically today the world tends to only test those who have flu like symptoms, and hence a large portion of the population are never tested, and like the flu, many people could have been exposed to covid-19 but their immune systems were quickly able to build antibodies and hence they had little or no flu symptoms. If these people were added into the mix then like the flu the mortality rates would be significantly less by an order of 10 or more.

To address this selection bias problem; Stanford university has already developed a test for covid-19 antibodies which they will use to do a random study in California to assess the real % of the population that has covid-19 antibodies -- only then will we have a better idea of the real mortality % of covid-19.

The insanity around covid-19 is proving to be far more contagious than the virus; because who would have thought that, for example:
people would be fighting over toilet paper, governments would shutter entire economies and even want to prosecute people for attempted murder because they're not adhering to self quarantining.
Still with the "it's just the flu bro"...

The 4000 bed field hospital and emergency morgue in London is telling me otherwise.

Governments are shuttering the economy so that they can cope with the crippling influx of severe cases.
 

elf_lord_ZC5

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Still with the "it's just the flu bro"...

The 4000 bed field hospital and emergency morgue in London is telling me otherwise.

Governments are shuttering the economy so that they can cope with the crippling influx of severe cases.
Big problem is there is not enough verified information.
 

[)roi(]

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Still with the "it's just the flu bro"...

The 4000 bed field hospital and emergency morgue in London is telling me otherwise.

Governments are shuttering the economy so that they can cope with the crippling influx of severe cases.
So how do you explain the huge variations in the mortality rates?

Nobody is saying this isn't more contagious than the average flu, but what they are saying is that a lot of statistics is pointing to it being as deadly or even less deadly than the yearly flu.

The beds and preparations in London and New York is based on modelled projections using the current data sets which are derived from a specific selection bias. The massive variations between countries is a good indicator that the rules defining who gets tested has a direct impact on the results. For example:

New York based on estimates has 4000 ventilators ready, and have projected they need 40,000 -- yet today they are only using 500. Statistics from this week in NY are showing a slowing down of the number of new critical cases -- a downward slope i.e. one should never take preparations and projections as an absolute indicator of the severity.

What exactly do you have against an antibody test?

Surely more data is always a good thing considering how much an impact this can have on the world's economy as a whole; and more importantly on countries like South Africa that can ill afford an economic crisis after the corruption.
 

Archer

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snippity snip
All of this ignores the real world facts that the virus requires spreads very quickly (without counter measures) which in turn requires enough intensive medical care that rich countries are getting overwhelmed. At that point deaths will sky rocket.

The mortality rate isn't the primary factor here, it is the rapid spread. Why is this so difficult to grasp?
 

flippakitten

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Big problem is there is not enough verified information.
There is certainly more than enough verified information to know it's not anywhere close to the flu. There's enough information to know you cannot leave it unchecked.

I'm keeping a very close watch on Germany, they test 120,000 per week. They're expecting to be over whelmed by the infection rate at some point. They were ready mid Jan already and testing fully ramped up by mid Feb. There numbers will give us a good indication of infection /mortality rate but you have to remember, they're in lock down.
 

Brian_G

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The mortality rate isn't the primary factor here, it is the rapid spread. Why is this so difficult to grasp?
Also, the re-infection factor, whatever that turns out to be. And the fair likelyhood that it will sit and pounce again, mutated, a couple of years later.
 

Lupus

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So how do you explain the huge variations in the mortality rates?

Nobody is saying this isn't more contagious than the average flu, but what they are saying is that a lot of statistics is pointing to it being as deadly or even less deadly than the yearly flu.

The beds and preparations in London and New York is based on modelled projections using the current data sets which are derived from a specific selection bias. The massive variations between countries is a good indicator that the rules defining who gets tested has a direct impact on the results. For example:

New York based on estimates has 4000 ventilators ready, and have projected they need 40,000 -- yet today they are only using 500. Statistics from this week in NY are showing a slowing down of the number of new critical cases -- a downward slope i.e. one should never take preparations and projections as an absolute indicator of the severity.

What exactly do you have against an antibody test?

Surely more data is always a good thing considering how much an impact this can have on the world's economy as a whole; and more importantly on countries like South Africa that can ill afford an economic crisis after the corruption.
Trust me, the panicked here won't listen to you. They will say listen to the scientists, when you put things like this that are from scientists they will say but look at this statistic or this one. It's sheer lunacy but anyway.
 

NarrowBandFtw

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So how do you explain the huge variations in the mortality rates?
you DON'T explain it by making multiple completely unproven assumptions to cook the numbers lower

the academic your post referred to ASSUMED that a very high % of total populations are already infected, just not detected, and based off that unproven assumption, the death rate is now compared to a much larger base and is much lower as a result

absolutely f-all more credible than just assuming the death rate over the base of closed cases is a true reflection, both make assumptions, both are equally valid/invalid
 

flippakitten

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So how do you explain the huge variations in the mortality rates?

Nobody is saying this isn't more contagious than the average flu, but what they are saying is that a lot of statistics is pointing to it being as deadly or even less deadly than the yearly flu.

The beds and preparations in London and New York is based on modelled projections using the current data sets which are derived from a specific selection bias. The massive variations between countries is a good indicator that the rules defining who gets tested has a direct impact on the results. For example:

New York based on estimates has 4000 ventilators ready, and have projected they need 40,000 -- yet today they are only using 500. Statistics from this week in NY are showing a slowing down of the number of new critical cases -- a downward slope i.e. one should never take preparations and projections as an absolute indicator of the severity.

What exactly do you have against an antibody test?

Surely more data is always a good thing considering how much an impact this can have on the world's economy as a whole; and more importantly on countries like South Africa that can ill afford an economic crisis after the corruption.
Nothing against the antibody test or having more data.

I am against people saying things like "The insanity around covid-19 is proving to be far more contagious than the virus" or "people are over reacting" or, "It's not as bad as everyone is making it out".

People are not over reacting, governments are not over reacting. If anything there was a massive under reaction which is why we are where we are.
 

Archer

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Trust me, the panicked here won't listen to you. They will say listen to the scientists, when you put things like this that are from scientists they will say but look at this statistic or this one. It's sheer lunacy but anyway.
I don't understand this either, most of us on here are not panicked? I for one would love to have an explanation as to why hospitals are being overrun when this is "just the flu." I would love nothing more than for all of this to be one big overreaction, but the only arguments I've seen is "death rate low, just the flu." Which is a poop argument since it is the rate of infection that is overwhelming systems around the world.
 

flippakitten

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I don't understand this either, most of us on here are not panicked? I for one would love to have an explanation as to why hospitals are being overrun when this is "just the flu." I would love nothing more than for all of this to be one big overreaction, but the only arguments I've seen is "death rate low, just the flu." Which is a poop argument since it is the rate of infection that is overwhelming systems around the world.
I am worried because I don't really want to run this risk of landing up in one of these death camps:

I mean... does it not ring any bells:
 

Lupus

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I am worried because I don't really want to run this risk of landing up in one of these death camps:

I mean... does it not ring any bells:
You've got a very slim chance of that happening to you, are you elderly? Do you have any medical conditions?
Italy was hit hard for a number of reasons, a lot of those reasons we don't have, if you lived in Mpumalanga than you could possibly be hit hard due to the air pollution there.
 

Brian_G

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I still don't get what's blocking up the hospitals - if it's not serious (most), why must one hang around the hospital?
 

pinball wizard

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It is immeasurably easier to tell a population that has a historical high usage of face masks to do so all the time and achieve compliance. Not so here, where 3/4 of the population think Corona is a hoax.
Correction, it's immeasurably easier to tell a population to do anything when the have a long history of doing what the **** they are told by their governments.
 
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