Novel CoronaVirus (COVID-19) Updates & Discussion 2

[)roi(]

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I am against people saying things like "The insanity around covid-19 is proving to be far more contagious than the virus" or "people are over reacting" or, "It's not as bad as everyone is making it out".

People are not over reacting, governments are not over reacting. If anything there was a massive under reaction which is why we are where we are.
Politicians are reacting the way politicians do i.e. cover their arses + they love a crisis for the political advantages it affords them. Journalists are reacting the way journalists do i.e. profiting from a crisis and when there's no crisis; they will try to fabricate one, or blow things out of proportion.

I still believe this crisis is not even a tenth as bad as its made out to be, and the blame for that rests squarely on China; who like all despotic governments... do what all despotic governments do.... first tried to hide the problem, and then they blocked access to WHO and CDCs from many countries; etc.

Even the WHO; who by some measures is known to be biased in favour of China's propaganda has said that 99% of the contagion worldwide would have been prevented if China had acted responsibly and permitted early access to WHO and CDCs.

More data from antibody tests and the 45 minute self swabbing live virus tests is hopefully going to resolve this once and for all, so that the pending economic crisis can be averted -- because by any reckoning far more people will be adversely affected (mass unemployment, bankruptcies, suicides, ...) by a worldwide economic crisis than a covid-19 one.
 
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buka001

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I don't understand this either, most of us on here are not panicked? I for one would love to have an explanation as to why hospitals are being overrun when this is "just the flu." I would love nothing more than for all of this to be one big overreaction, but the only arguments I've seen is "death rate low, just the flu." Which is a poop argument since it is the rate of infection that is overwhelming systems around the world.
Same here.

Can someone explain to me why hospitals in London and now surrounding counties are full or filling up? Been in the UK for 5 years and never heard of hospitals being full? Never heard of hospitals not being able to cope because doctors and nurses are falling sick and the government is calling in final year med students to help.

Can someone explain to me why Spain is using a warehouse, to house patients? What ever could be the reason for this? It doesn't happen every year with the seasonal flu?

And since Italy had a higher than average in age population last year, why was there no emergency last winter during the seasonal flu? I don't recall the army having to ship bodies out to other morgues because they were over flowing with people who died from the seasonal flu. I certainly don't recall seeing videos of Italian mayors in tears pleading for help, to deal with the seasonal flu cases?
 

Archer

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I still don't get what's blocking up the hospitals - if it's not serious (most), why must one hang around the hospital?
Same reason the morons panic buy? Stupid is as stupid does.
So your theory is basically that doctors around the world are unable to determine the severity of symptoms in these stupid morons blocking up the hospitals, and just willy nilly allow the hospitals to fill up?
 

elf_lord_ZC5

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Correction, it's immeasurably easier to tell a population to do anything when the have a long history of doing what the **** they are told by their governments.
Those are law abiding and respecting people. Unlike our people whose natural reaction is F'you and F'off, who believe they are entitled by some diety or other.
 

elf_lord_ZC5

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So your theory is basically that doctors around the world are unable to determine the severity of symptoms in these stupid morons blocking up the hospitals, and just willy nilly allow the hospitals to fill up?
They are in a situation where you are screwed if you do, and screwed if you don't, so err on the side of caution, so none might point fingers at them, and apportion blame.

That is they are covering their arses, with multiple layers of latex, fire retarding material and anything else they deem required.
 
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Brian_G

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Those are law abiding and respecting people. Unlike our people whose natural reaction is F'you and F'off, who believe they are entitled by some diety or other.
That's hardly fair, the governance in this country has been abysmal, why should they be respected.
 

pinball wizard

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So your theory is basically that doctors around the world are unable to determine the severity of symptoms in these stupid morons blocking up the hospitals, and just willy nilly allow the hospitals to fill up?
My theory is that hospitals in SA are not blocked up and the delays in testing in SA are due to asymptomatic ****tards with no exposure or travel history demanding to be tested.

My theory regarding the rest of the world is that hospitals are probably not as backed up as you think. My theory is that there is a lot of faked hype. My theory is that one needn't be a denialist like Trump, but equally one needn't panic at level 12 our of 8 just yet.
 

elf_lord_ZC5

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That's hardly fair, the governance in this country has been abysmal, why should they be respected.
Really, and the population of this country where 100% law abiding and respectful, under the previous dispensation, which was streets ahead of the current dispensation, competency wise.
 

pinball wizard

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Really, and the population of this country where 100% law abiding and respectful, under the previous dispensation, which was streets ahead of the current dispensation, competency wise.
I don't know much, but I know that if the SA government in 1988 had of told us to stay at home, we (black, white and purple) would have stayed the **** at home.
 

The Voice

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It seems that the virus only killing the elderly or those with underlying health conditions isn't all that accurate: at least a couple of recent deaths in the UK (a 21-year old and 41-year old) had NO underlying health conditions. And I reckon that as more stats start coming out we may see those numbers increasing all over the world.

Sorry, flu bros, but you may not be able to just walk this off if you get it.
 

Lupus

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It seems that the virus only killing the elderly or those with underlying health conditions isn't all that accurate: at least a couple of recent deaths in the UK (a 21-year old and 41-year old) had NO underlying health conditions. And I reckon that as more stats start coming out we may see those numbers increasing all over the world.

Sorry, flu bros, but you may not be able to just walk this off if you get it.
You know there are things called outliers right? Statistically there will be people young and old who will die of things they wouldn't normally do.
 

Brian_G

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Really, and the population of this country where 100% law abiding and respectful, under the previous dispensation, which was streets ahead of the current dispensation, competency wise.
They were good in that respect but it was a very different reality back then, and there's far more government needs to do today. But that's another factor, and the fact that the current one did a lot better in the first few years says it's nothing to do with it, at least imo.
 

garp

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I don't understand this either, most of us on here are not panicked? I for one would love to have an explanation as to why hospitals are being overrun when this is "just the flu." I would love nothing more than for all of this to be one big overreaction, but the only arguments I've seen is "death rate low, just the flu." Which is a poop argument since it is the rate of infection that is overwhelming systems around the world.
But not everywhere, which is very strange. The UK has, at this point, 163 serious/critical patients (out of active cases 8929). That is hardly going to overrun their hospitals - obviously this might change. But there is a pattern of some countries having very low critical cases, vs others having extremely high. Germany, with 35733 cases has only 23 critical/serious cases! Yet Italy has 3489 critical/serious cases out of 57521 active. Something is not making sense here. I know there are variations in demographics, but are they really that extreme between Italy and Germany? It's like some part of the puzzle is missing - like perhaps there are two strains - one mild and one much more virulent.

1585227674332.png
 

Simplyliverpool81

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But not everywhere, which is very strange. The UK has, at this point, 163 serious/critical patients (out of active cases 8929). That is hardly going to overrun their hospitals - obviously this might change. But there is a pattern of some countries having very low critical cases, vs others having extremely high. Germany, with 35733 cases has only 23 critical/serious cases! Yet Italy has 3489 critical/serious cases out of 57521 active. Something is not making sense here. I know there are variations in demographics, but are they really that extreme between Italy and Germany? It's like some part of the puzzle is missing - like perhaps there are two strains - one mild and one much more virulent.

View attachment 807101
I could be wrong, but i am under the impression the critical/serious cases are people currently in ICU. I dont think there is data on the page to show how many other people are also in hospital that might not be critical but cannot be treated at home.

Edit:
I too am begining to suspect that we are dealing with two strains.
 

Archer

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But not everywhere, which is very strange. The UK has, at this point, 163 serious/critical patients (out of active cases 8929). That is hardly going to overrun their hospitals - obviously this might change. But there is a pattern of some countries having very low critical cases, vs others having extremely high. Germany, with 35733 cases has only 23 critical/serious cases! Yet Italy has 3489 critical/serious cases out of 57521 active. Something is not making sense here. I know there are variations in demographics, but are they really that extreme between Italy and Germany? It's like some part of the puzzle is missing - like perhaps there are two strains - one mild and one much more virulent.

View attachment 807101
The piece we're missing is standardised reporting across all countries. Therefore very few good comparisons can be made between countries at this stage.

I do know that in Germany the cases have mostly been among young people (hence low critical case count) despite having iirc 25% of their population of 60.
 
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Chris_the_Brit

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But not everywhere, which is very strange. The UK has, at this point, 163 serious/critical patients (out of active cases 8929). That is hardly going to overrun their hospitals - obviously this might change. But there is a pattern of some countries having very low critical cases, vs others having extremely high. Germany, with 35733 cases has only 23 critical/serious cases! Yet Italy has 3489 critical/serious cases out of 57521 active. Something is not making sense here. I know there are variations in demographics, but are they really that extreme between Italy and Germany? It's like some part of the puzzle is missing - like perhaps there are two strains - one mild and one much more virulent.

View attachment 807101
The lead author in the Imperical study has now changed his tune as well:


The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower
 
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