Novel CoronaVirus (COVID-19) Updates & Discussion 2

MiW

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But not everywhere, which is very strange. The UK has, at this point, 163 serious/critical patients (out of active cases 8929). That is hardly going to overrun their hospitals - obviously this might change. But there is a pattern of some countries having very low critical cases, vs others having extremely high. Germany, with 35733 cases has only 23 critical/serious cases! Yet Italy has 3489 critical/serious cases out of 57521 active. Something is not making sense here. I know there are variations in demographics, but are they really that extreme between Italy and Germany? It's like some part of the puzzle is missing - like perhaps there are two strains - one mild and one much more virulent.

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until recently Germany had much more dead than serious/critical a day , so its just lack of reporting it, lots of countries didn't report critical. Iran started today I see
 

The Voice

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You know there are things called outliers right? Statistically there will be people young and old who will die of things they wouldn't normally do.
You know it just means that everyone needs to be more careful, right? Elderly, those with health conditions, outliers, super healthy people - EVERYONE. Not just for their own sake, but for everyone else's.

I'm not saying the two "normal" deaths couldn't have been freak occurrences, but had they not contracted COVID-19, they'd probably still be here. Point is that people aren't as invincible as they may think they are.
 

flippakitten

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Politicians are reacting the way politicians do i.e. cover their arses + they love a crisis for the political advantages it affords them. Journalists are reacting the way journalists do i.e. profiting from a crisis and when there's no crisis; they will try to fabricate one, or blow things out of proportion.

I still believe this crisis is not even a tenth as bad as its made out to be, and the blame for that rests squarely on China; who like all despotic governments... do what all despotic governments do.... first tried to hide the problem, and then they blocked access to WHO and CDCs from many countries; etc.

Even the WHO; who by some measures is known to be biased in favour of China's propaganda has said that 99% of the contagion worldwide would have been prevented if China had acted responsibly and permitted early access to WHO and CDCs.

More data from antibody tests and the 45 minute self swabbing live virus tests is hopefully going to resolve this once and for all, so that the pending economic crisis can be averted -- because by any reckoning far more people will be adversely affected (mass unemployment, bankruptcies, suicides, ...) by a worldwide economic crisis than a covid-19 one.
At the time when China was not reporting this fine, I agree.

China cannot be held 100% responsible for this.
What did countries do when Wuhan went into lock down... Nothing but say "it's just the flu".

The self swabbing test is not going to stop the masses of people requiring hospitilization.
Once the medical system is completely overwhelmed (Italy, Spain and soon USA, UK) the CFR explodes.

The number of deaths will not decrease, only the percentage and can you honestly stand by and say let them die?
 

The Voice

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I could be wrong, but i am under the impression the critical/serious cases are people currently in ICU. I dont think there is data on the page to show how many other people are also in hospital that might not be critical but cannot be treated at home.

Edit:
I too am begining to suspect that we are dealing with two strains.
The two-strain theory started about 2 months ago. One presents with milder symptoms that clear up after a few days of bed rest. The other puts you in ICU or the grave. People are only testing positive for "COVID-19", though, not A or B.

On the UK front, reports late last night showed that social distancing measures may actually do the trick, as for the first time there wasn't an increase in the number of cases/deaths over the previous day. Of course, one still has to question the accuracy of information coming in. But it's still positive.
 

Brian_G

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Looks like a whole lot of our posts just got deleted here. Strange, never been a problem to discuss related SA politics before, and it remained civil.
 

buka001

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The lead author in the Imperical study has now changed his tune as well:

This sounds positive, but he hasn't changed his tune? He is saying the measures that his model suggested, which have been adopted are going to be effective in reducing an overload on the NHS. Validation for his model and its suggestions.

Changing his tune would be for him to say nope sorry, got it wrong again, lift the lockdown.
 

elf_lord_ZC5

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They were good in that respect but it was a very different reality back then, and there's far more government needs to do today. But that's another factor, and the fact that the current one did a lot better in the first few years says it's nothing to do with it, at least imo.
You are welcome.
 

nivek

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At the time when China was not reporting this fine, I agree.

China cannot be held 100% responsible for this.
What did countries do when Wuhan went into lock down... Nothing but say "it's just the flu".
Wuhan went in to lockdown long after China spread this to the entire globe. If China didn't censor and punish the doctors who were trying to control the outbreak early, and instead went into quarantine back then we probably wouldnt be in this position.
It'd also help if they stopped eating random, and live animals too.

But you're right, the rest of the globe should've stopped all flights in/out of China in December, in fact, they should keep a ban in place until they commit to closing down all wet markets
 

Chris_the_Brit

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This sounds positive, but he hasn't changed his tune? He is saying the measures that his model suggested, which have been adopted are going to be effective in reducing an overload on the NHS. Validation for his model and its suggestions.

Changing his tune would be for him to say nope sorry, got it wrong again, lift the lockdown.
His original paper had 250 000 or 500 000 UK deaths IIRC with no mitigation measures (of course an absurd assumption). This was the scary number used by the media. I have printed out the paper, need to see if he gave estimates once mitigation measures were enforced.
 

Hamish McPanji

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When Wuhan went into lockdown, the rest of the world should have stopped flights and required mandatory quarantine. Pointing fingers is less than usefull.
They obviously forced every other country to stay open so they can continue selling their wares. Even 2 months after everything was clear. You underestimate the power of the Chinese
 

Brian_G

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This sounds positive, but he hasn't changed his tune? He is saying the measures that his model suggested, which have been adopted are going to be effective in reducing an overload on the NHS. Validation for his model and its suggestions.

Changing his tune would be for him to say nope sorry, got it wrong again, lift the lockdown.
AI being overrated again? Hell some of that stuff scares me!
 

buka001

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His original paper had 250 000 or 500 000 UK deaths IIRC with no mitigation measures (of course an absurd assumption). This was the scary number used by the media. I have printed out the paper, need to see if he gave estimates once mitigation measures were enforced.
Yes exactly, that was without any measures.

Hence, why he clarifies that now, with the measures put in place, the NHS will cope.
 

buka001

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Here is Putin visiting the hospital to check on those sick from "Just the flu"

 

Chris_the_Brit

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Wuhan went in to lockdown long after China spread this to the entire globe. If China didn't censor and punish the doctors who were trying to control the outbreak early, and instead went into quarantine back then we probably wouldnt be in this position.
It'd also help if they stopped eating random, and live animals too.

But you're right, the rest of the globe should've stopped all flights in/out of China in December, in fact, they should keep a ban in place until they commit to closing down all wet markets
Yup. Read this today. They know the liberal left's weak point is being of accused of racism so they have weaponised this and as usual the SJWs have fallen for it hook, line and sinker. Notice how little criticism there is of China in the MSM.

China Is Avoiding Blame by Trolling the World

The evidence of China’s deliberate cover-up of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan is a matter of public record. In suppressing information about the virus, doing little to contain it, and allowing it to spread unchecked in the crucial early days and weeks, the regime imperiled not only its own country and its own citizens but also the more than 100 nations now facing their own potentially devastating outbreaks. More perniciously, the Chinese government censored and detained those brave doctors and whistleblowers who attempted to sound the alarm and warn their fellow citizens when they understood the gravity of what was to come.
The political scientist Andrew Michta has drawn controversy and accusations of racism for stating what any measured overview of the evidence makes clear. “The question about assigning agency and blame is pretty straightforward to answer,” he writes in The American Interest. The Chinese state, he says, is culpable.

But is this a time for blame? Yes, it is. Accounting for responsibility when a disaster happens—particularly one likely to devastate entire countries, leaving thousands dead—is not beside the point, particularly as Chinese officials move to take advantage of the crisis and launch a disinformation campaign claiming that the U.S. Army introduced the virus.

Well before the new coronavirus spread across American cities, the Chinese regime was already rather creatively trolling U.S. publications, expelling American journalists, and “weaponizing wokeness” over anything it perceived as critical of China’s role in mishandling the epidemic. To hear Chinese spokespeople use the language of racism and prejudice is somewhat surreal, considering this is a regime that has put more than 1 million Muslims and ethnic minorities in “reeducation” camps.
 

elf_lord_ZC5

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They obviously forced every other country to stay open so they can continue selling their wares. Even 2 months after everything was clear. You underestimate the power of the Chinese
Above all, do not believe every thing the Chinese tell you. They have more hidden agendas, than our Tripartite alliance at a election meeting. The only information you take as a truth, is information they give you that they know you can verify elsewhere.
 

Hamish McPanji

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Yup. Read this today. They know the liberal left's weak point is being of accused of racism so they have weaponised this and as usual the SJWs have fallen for it hook, line and sinker. Notice how little criticism there is of China in the MSM.

China Is Avoiding Blame by Trolling the World
They ****ed up big time.

And then everyone decided, let's **** up some more. The UK is probably still getting people flying in from Spain without even cursory checks.

Reason: China didn't tell us 2 months ago
 
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