Do you really want a CBDC:
I personally prefer BTC, an open, immutable, permissionless, money with fixed supply that cannot be altered by any central authority.
I don't think it's a matter of whether I want CBDC or BTC, nor how much nasty things the government / central bank can do with CBDC (to be fair, CBDC could also aid in tracking money laundering and other criminal funding activities etc), but simply that no central banks / country could tolerate BTC (or anything else really) to replace "digital fiat"/CBDC, and while the idea of an "open" currency is appealing, no one is really planning for the switch and the switch is unworkable / non practical in its current form, I will elaborate below:
1) It would mean the country losing control over its monetary policy, except for maybe countries like El Salvador which its own currency had no real value anyways, so they had nothing to lose and tried their luck to see if they could reduce reliance on USD. Not only is losing monetary policy control a national vulnerability, but this also means losing fiscal policy control, bad idea for governments.
2) While I think the original ideal of BTC / crypto was good, but looking at the current crypto space, it remains highly speculative in nature, I would say most people are currently buying into it because they expects it to rise in value, not because they believed in its ideal and these people will not be willing to hold onto it if the crypto loses a substantial amount in value. I think it is fair to compare the current crypto space to an unregulated penny stock market with all their similarities, hell, they even uses terms like ICO in comparison to IPO from stocks anyways. 99% of cryptos are like actual penny stocks, there are hundreds or thousands of them, issued by people that hopes to get a quick score from retailers, while a handful of them yields an extraordinary return to its buyers for whatever reasons, 99% of them will be proven worthless after an initial pump (or not even a pump) and its buyers loses everything. I would say BTC/ETH (and some others) are like "blue chip" stocks as oppose to penny stocks, their high volatility / intraday swing also behave similarly to large cap stocks you see on NYSE/NASDAQ rather than the fiats on Forex market, this should be telling that even BTC are currently speculative in nature like a stock and its buyers are not really treating it like a currency as many have hoped. We can't possibly uses something with such high intraday swings as a currency, especially if the idea is to use it to replace all fiats in all countries, essentially making it a "world currency".
3) Personally, I also prefer a currency that cannot be altered by a central bank, but the problem is that all I hear everyone says are how great it will be if BTC takes over, total freedom from corrupt central banks and control of government, and no one actually talks about how this essentially mean making central banks obsolete, some simple questions for thought when that happens, how will fiscal policy work in the "new" era since government can no longer get money from central banks? How will commercial banks get their money to loan out without central banks for the fractional reserve system? How will this impact macro economic theories (e.g. ppp, must curriculum be changed?) and how do we measure economic data in the new era like inflation/deflation (the main advantage is no inflation right, look at the next point)? These things are not something that we can wing after the switch, all the financial systems are so interlinked with each other that we need to carefully plan and tests all the steps, procedures, model the impacts, draw up rules etc "worldwide" between countries and we are not even talking about the procedures and processes needed at each financial institutions or your everyday companies that deals in foreign trades. If we think the credit freeze in 2008 was bad, this switch with poor planning will just collapse the whole system in seconds "worldwide". Such planning and tests will probably take decades and an insane amount of effort and co operations worldwide, but who from the BTC developers is working with any financial institutions / governments planning these things? We are still at a stage discussing whether to regulate crypto and how much its tax should be...
4) From an economic stand point, can a fixed supply of BTC really support an expanding economy worldwide (you pretty much have to scrap the fractional reserve system)? Most people will say fixed supply of money, no inflation, things will get cheaper, great stuff, what they don't say is that sure you won't get inflation, but what about deflation? When you have an expanding economy and population but limited supply of BTC, it is not hard to predict price will drop in general, the question is how bad the deflation will be, and if you know you can buy the same tv/car/clothes etc 1% cheaper next month, how many people will wait until when its absolutely necessary before buy the item. Deflation curb spending and thus production will decline, unemployment will rise, and given time, you will get to something similar to "the great depression" (albeit the cause of the depression will be different this time). But this time, you can't get the money to get out of the depression even if you are willing to start a world war, because central banks are now gone, and you only get a limited amount of BTC... I can't think of anything that can be done because no one will have any control on any monetary policy anywhere by then.
5) Then there is this transfer of wealth problem, it is no secret that there are lots of "whales" in crypto, when the switch happens, the major BTC whales and average BTC holders will see their wealth suddenly increase 100000000x due to this "limited supply" of money worldwide. And who will be left holding the bag? It will be the people / country that only buys into bitcoin after it is announced that bitcoin will replace fiat, probably the poorest or uneducated masses that did not even have anything spare to invest into BTC in the first place, the same people that the crypto space preached BTC will enrich their lives. If you think it is far fetched, just imagine if the US announce they will let BTC replace USD today, it will immediately send BTC surging beyond affordability since all countries will then exchange all their USDs as well as other currencies in their foreign reserves into BTC as everyone will expect everyone else to replace their fiat with BTC, any person worldwide that had no BTC in possession will be wiped out financially in minutes. All we managed to do is to change the wealthiest person from Elon Musk to someone like CZ from binance, BTC developers or Winklevoss twins, made them quadrillionaires in BTC terms, 5% of world population that has BTC rich, while wiping the floor with the other 95% people worldwide in the process.
If you read this far, I applaud you, didn't realize how long the post has gotten as I wrote this, but I feel replacing fiat is a big topic that deserves an answer with some justifications, and most people are looking at this from a social / tech point of view, not really from an economic and financial system impact standpoint. I probably missed something in some areas, but I doubt my general predictions will be too far off, so I don't see replacing fiat with BTC ending too well if it really happens in its current form. But because of the above as well as the lack of articles/white paper regarding anyone working on changes in the financial system, I am pretty confident no major economies are even planning to replace their fiat with BTC, anyone that thinks countries like US will replace fiat with BTC is hopeful at best. If I wear a conspiracy theorist hat, BTC was an experiment to see how people would react to a digital fiat with smart functions offered by block chain technology, give them time to start getting used to something like this, the experiment was a success and timing is ripe to introduce "digital fiat / CBDC".
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