Apart from all the other PS3 bashing going on at the moment the following two things are currently the main reason why I don't think it will do as well as Sony hope.
1. 5 Games at launch... 5... that sucks
2. Seems like they are only having sequels come out. Ridge Racer 7, Metal Gear 4, Final Fantasy 13... and on and on and on...
No originality that I can see...
Xbox has Gears of War

Nintendo has originality in bags full....