Thanks. I must have missed it. We post a lot of garbage which ends up drowning the good stuff.
I don't mind it any more as long as people get behind the Ukrainians, I can condone it
At this point, Russia isn’t coercing anyone into the army, ignoring the separatists who seem to be coercing soldiers into their ranks, they still need to broker service contracts with willing reservists. Special conscription by decree will change how soldiers are being recruited. Currently, I don’t see them newly enlist more than ~100 000 troops, I would believe that 50 000 – 75 000 is more plausible.
For Russia, with their contingency at this time they need to take Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, and I guess this is why they are also pulling back in Kharkiv to bolster their positions and advances in Donestk whilst having to hold on to Kherson (city).
The Russians must be having new troops coming in, as it is reported that they are strengthening their advances on Kryvyi Rih (city) and Zaprorizhia (city). These are not troop rotations.
For Ukraine, they need to secure Kharkiv, hold on Dnipropetrovsk and make their advance on Kherson (city).
I don’t believe some Oblasts are in play anymore. Attrition seems to be reaching now… Negotiations may resume soon, and some areas will be used as leverage. It is too hard to tell at this point whether Ukraine can muster a counter-attack on Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhia. There are rumours that Ukraine wants to make a play on Crimea, but I doubt that, and to do so they will need to take back both Kherson and Zaporizhia without high casualties.
The only reasons the Russians will call on ‘mass mobilisation’ will be to move on Odessa at which point they will also push on Kryvyi Rih (city) and Zaprorizhia (city), and they haven't secured Donetsk at this point. As said, I think attrition is now grinding away on both sides. The Russians compacted a lot into a small window, an assault which the Ukrainians phenomenally withstood. It is still too early to tell, but I am predicting a second continuation war unless the situation is resolved through negotiations which would suit the Russians since they can supplement their war with their biannual conscripts who take up service contracts. Such a war will also be a global burden in the long term. Something has to give, and I hope that it is the Russian regime.
I stopped reading the news, it is getting more political as time goes on. All I do is read the ISW reports and their segments.