Russo-Ukrainian War - 2022 Edition - Part 5

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Sneeky

Sneeky

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MunosMachos said:
This Russian commander-in-chief Surovikin sounds like bad news. Known to the Russians as “General Armageddon" or “Cannibal”. Looks like he is going for the shock and awe tactic by overloading air defenses and blowing up electrical infrastructure.

Now is a good time for Zelensky to negotiate. Later he might have to negotiate with smoke signals and pigeons.

Winter is also coming so when the ground freezes and Ukraine is bombed back into the dark ages with North Korean purchased missiles, Russia will try to mop up Ukrainian forces.
Click to expand...
I agree with your sentiments with the exception of Zelensky cowering to Russia and the tone in which they are conveyed.
But hey, that's kinda rife here. ;)
The miscalculation or hope in your assessment is that those supporting Ukr will not furnish them with the necessary kit and equipment to combat/prevent being bombed into the dark ages.
They may well have a capability to strike those who are offensively attacking them in due course, time will tell.
As for Russia mopping up, they have a manpower and capability shortage, unless they mobilise more of their population than they have done.
Bottom line is it's going to get uglier if Russia continues as you have indicated.
 
Matata

Matata

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Sneeky said:
I agree with your sentiments with the exception of Zelensky cowering to Russia and the tone in which they are conveyed.
But hey, that's kinda rife here. ;)
The miscalculation or hope in your assessment is that those supporting Ukr will not furnish them with the necessary kit and equipment to combat/prevent being bombed into the dark ages.
They may well have a capability to strike those who are offensively attacking them in due course, time will tell.
As for Russia mopping up, they have a manpower and capability shortage, unless they mobilise more of their population than they have done.
Bottom line is it's going to get uglier if Russia continues as you have indicated.
Click to expand...
I have deep respect for you being able to communicate with so much civility! Big kudos to you!
 
tetrasect

tetrasect

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Cosmik Debris said:
They will still need a human to pull the trigger. The machines can never be autonomous with no human input. Legal reasons require someone to be responsible for killing another human being in a war.
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It's a gray area, same reason mines are hated by pretty much everyone.
 
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MunosMachos

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Sneeky said:
I agree with your sentiments with the exception of Zelensky cowering to Russia and the tone in which they are conveyed.
But hey, that's kinda rife here. ;)
The miscalculation or hope in your assessment is that those supporting Ukr will not furnish them with the necessary kit and equipment to combat/prevent being bombed into the dark ages.
They may well have a capability to strike those who are offensively attacking them in due course, time will tell.
As for Russia mopping up, they have a manpower and capability shortage, unless they mobilise more of their population than they have done.
Bottom line is it's going to get uglier if Russia continues as you have indicated.
Click to expand...
The supporters of Ukraine will have to make a plan. If you look at the material support being offered then you will see a lot of the equipment will not arrive soon enough. Some promised equipment will only arrive in a few years (e.g. some of the promised German support).

I suspect the Russians will shock 'n awe their way right up until the claimed territories and then attempt to setup some kind of buffer zone (similar to North and South Korea).
 
tetrasect

tetrasect

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Mirai said:
There have been some other quotes posted here and other materials where some talk exists that maybe some sort of verbal "promise" may have been offered to Gorbachev, but I think it's as Willie says. Even if Baker and Bush at the time said no NATO expansion east (I'm simplifying the language here) it would not be a valid promise to make, for many reasons. No ratification would be one. Not written down. But even if written down, Bush/Baker could not make promises for future US administrations, nor was any treaty ironed out as to how long this would last and what it would entail. Finally USSR was no more. Gorbachev would have to be a naive amateur to take any such jest at face value or any serious Russian politician to really believe this would mean anything.

NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard | National Security Archive

Western leaders gave multiple assurances against NATO expansion to Gorbachev in 1990-1991 according to declassified American, Russian, British, Germans documents
nsarchive.gwu.edu nsarchive.gwu.edu

Of note, Mitterrand of France at the time said this:



Was this a promise too? Because that hints at a promise, an implied *wink* *wink* type of promise. So why are Russians not upset with Macron for not following up on what Mitterrand hinted at?

Despite all of this, this is all BS, because Gorbachev knew that without ratification and ironing out what NATO expansion meant and how long and where etc... any sort of nudge nudge warm fuzzies agreements would mean nothing or at best would not take advantage of the USSR at that very point. And to be fair NATO did not enlarge for a long time. American forces were not hosted in former Eastern Europe for years after that.

So it's all moot. If Gorbachev was taken in by a warm feeling in his bosom, well that sucks on him. Strange that a career guy who worked his way up to Comrade 1st Secretary would be this gullible, naive and stupid. I would say he wasn't. He knew these "promises" were worthless or he'd insist on proper treaties, changing the status of NATO constitution to explicity exclude Hungary, Czechoslovakia etc from NATO in all perpetuity etc...

And to hold the US to nebulous, non detailed and not ratified agreements is stupid of Russia and their peanut gallery of shills.
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Here is the interview I quoted:

www.rbth.com

Mikhail Gorbachev: I am against all walls

The first and last president of the Soviet Union spoke with RBTH about the past and how it should inform the present.
www.rbth.com www.rbth.com

He basically confirms that NATO accepting new members in 1993 was not a violation of the agreement and it was not a violation of any verbal assurances because none were even made. In fact, they never even discussed the topic.

What he did say is that he felt it was a "violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990."
 
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MiW

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Don't trust the source, but here it is

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1579190473549549569

According to Kots, two trucks were used in the operation to blow up the Crimean bridge. According to him, the cargo consisted of 22 euro pallets with foil, 9 rolls in each, each pallet weighing about 1 ton. The goods arrived by sea in the Georgian port of Poti from Bulgaria. The order was placed in the name of a citizen of Ukraine. It was then loaded onto a truck with foreign license plates and from Poti the truck traveled to Armenia, where it was cleared at customs under the rules of the customs union.


After that, the truck returned to Georgia again, and from there, through the Verkhniy Lars border crossing, entered the territory of Russia. The end point was the city of Armavir, where the pallets were reloaded into another truck and from there to Crimea. Kotz hypothesizes that the blast was somehow embedded in the rolls of foil so that they would not be detected by X-ray examination. "And this was done in Bulgaria, which means that in addition to Ukraine, foreign services could have participated in the organization of this terrorist act."
 
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Mirai

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tetrasect said:
Here is the interview I quoted:

www.rbth.com

Mikhail Gorbachev: I am against all walls

The first and last president of the Soviet Union spoke with RBTH about the past and how it should inform the present.
www.rbth.com www.rbth.com

He basically confirms that NATO accepting new members in 1993 was not a violation of the agreement and it was not a violation of any verbal assurances because none were even made. In fact, they never even discussed the topic.

What he did say is that he felt it was a "violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990."
Click to expand...

So you agree with me. They hinted at something vague and nebulous and he was stupid, and naive to not formalize it. Or more likely, he had no other choice. His country was collapsing and he was going to obtain plenty of aid from the West in exchange for tearing down the Wall... etc.

If Gorbachev was really taken in by these vague, jests he would have made them formal. There is no spirit in politics and national interests. That's up to him and Raisa.

He didn't, ergo he knew this was all BS at the time. He was later hated by many USSR fanboys in Russia and so he may have said this to cover his a$$. He didn't want to lie too much though because he still had his cred in Western circles.
 
tetrasect

tetrasect

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MiW said:
View attachment 1398125

en.wikipedia.org

Druzhba pipeline - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...

Here's a more current map:

https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2F28371290-a092-11ec-83ff-11c7f12c6767-standard.png
 
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